2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

There's little reason think that NJ independents in 2009 will do any better than independents in 2005 or 2001.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Has the man I supported in 2005, Ed Furchione (or something similar to that) declared?

[Keystone Phil]

Has the man I supported in 2005, Ed Furchione (or something similar to that) declared?

LOL

NJ Weedman? Funny you bring him up...I mentioned him at dinner a few hours ago. He has yet to declare.

[Verily]

There's little reason think that NJ independents in 2009 will do any better than independents in 2005 or 2001.

The independent in 2005, the schools guy, Castillo, I think, had signs all over the place around here. He didn't get any votes, but he had tons of signs.

[Zarn]

There's little reason think that NJ independents in 2009 will do any better than independents in 2005 or 2001.

The independent in 2005, the schools guy, Castillo, I think, had signs all over the place around here. He didn't get any votes, but he had tons of signs.

Interesting. I'm starting to think that the more signs someone has in my neighborhood, the less likely they will win.

[Rowan]

Christie has another TV ad up:

http://www.christiefornj.com/newsroom/2009/04/21/television-ad-corruption

[Rowan]

From NRO:

David E. Johnson of the Strategic Vision polling firm tells me he's releasing a poll of the New Jersey's governor's race tomorrow that was conducted over the weekend.  It shows Republican Chris Christie leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 47 percent to 36 percent.  Corzine's job approval is 36 percent with 54 percent disapproval.  Against Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan, Corzine leads 44 percent to 39 percent  Lonegan.  Against Brian Levine — who may have to leave the race — it is Corzine 42 percent to Levine's 40 percent.  Against Rick Merkt, Corzine leads 45 percent to 30 percent

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmVmYmIyZjMxNjE2NmNhNzk3MTIyYjExMDgzNTY4ODE=

Yes, I know SV has a house Republican effect, but even taking that into account, it's still a healthy lead for Christie, and the fifth straight poll to show Christie up by at least 9.

[Rowan]

Political Wire says Quinnipiac will be releasing a NJ poll tomorrow.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

No one mentioned it, but Christie today essentially reached the maximum allowable to fundraise for the June primary.  State election finance law limits primary expenditures at $5 million.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From NRO:

David E. Johnson of the Strategic Vision polling firm tells me he's releasing a poll of the New Jersey's governor's race tomorrow that was conducted over the weekend.  It shows Republican Chris Christie leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 47 percent to 36 percent.  Corzine's job approval is 36 percent with 54 percent disapproval.  Against Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan, Corzine leads 44 percent to 39 percent  Lonegan.  Against Brian Levine — who may have to leave the race — it is Corzine 42 percent to Levine's 40 percent.  Against Rick Merkt, Corzine leads 45 percent to 30 percent

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmVmYmIyZjMxNjE2NmNhNzk3MTIyYjExMDgzNTY4ODE=

Yes, I know SV has a house Republican effect, but even taking that into account, it's still a healthy lead for Christie, and the fifth straight poll to show Christie up by at least 9.

Brian Levine, who may leave the race?  Hah, he was thrown off the primary ballot.  He doesn't have a choice in the matter anymore.

[Rowan]

Strategic Vision
Christie 47%
Corzine 36%

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_042209.htm

[JohnnyLongtorso]

No one mentioned it, but Christie today essentially reached the maximum allowable to fundraise for the June primary.  State election finance law limits primary expenditures at $5 million.

How is that constitutional? The Supreme Court has always struck down campaign spending limits as a violation of the First Amendment.

[Rowan]

No one mentioned it, but Christie today essentially reached the maximum allowable to fundraise for the June primary.  State election finance law limits primary expenditures at $5 million.

How is that constitutional? The Supreme Court has always struck down campaign spending limits as a violation of the First Amendment.

It's New Jersey. Anything is possible.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

No one mentioned it, but Christie today essentially reached the maximum allowable to fundraise for the June primary.  State election finance law limits primary expenditures at $5 million.

How is that constitutional? The Supreme Court has always struck down campaign spending limits as a violation of the First Amendment.

It's a voluntary program.  By agreeing to the limits, the state will match you $2 for every $1 you raise.  Therefore, Christie needs to only raise $1,666,667 for the primary and the state will cut him a check for $3,333,333.

[Lunar]

Meh, I think the whole primary/general divide is itself a sketchy way to get around campaign financing laws a lot of the time.  Is Corzine doing that too?

Christie will be spending money for his "primary"... as may Corzine?

[Rowan]

Meh, I think the whole primary/general divide is itself a sketchy way to get around campaign financing laws a lot of the time.  Is Corzine doing that too?

Christie will be spending money for his "primary"... as may Corzine?

As far as I know, Corzine hasn't spent a dime yet. I haven't seen any election filings indicating he has raised any money either.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Meh, I think the whole primary/general divide is itself a sketchy way to get around campaign financing laws a lot of the time.  Is Corzine doing that too?

Christie will be spending money for his "primary"... as may Corzine?

Corzine has said that he will not seek matching funds; Christie pretty much has to accept them, since he can't self-fund.  And you seem to be a bit too dismissive of Christie's primary.  Neither Merkt nor Lonegan seem likely to win in any scenario, but Lonegan (more accurately, Lonegan's campaign manager Rick Shaftan) could cause a lot of problems, especially considering that Lonegan is getting a good chunk of matching fund change himself.

Things may very well change in the general election if Christie picks someone for LG (Crowley?) who is loaded with the kind of money that makes passing on matching funds worthwhile.  I still expect Christie to stay in the 2-for-1 campaign finance system.

[Lunar]

I understand his primary opponents are serious, but I think I'm legitimately dismissive of a crazy upset occurring, considering the amount of hope and popularity Christie has backing him.

I don't really care about NJ politics so I don't pretend to be an authority, unlike other things I pretend about.

[Rowan]

Lonegan is nuts. You can be dismissive of him. You're allowed.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, basically everyone dislikes Lonegan.

[Zarn]

I wouldn't let Lonegan shine my shoes.

[Lunar]

I think Simmons is several times more danger for the nom than Christie... but he's pro-choice and stuff.


It's not hard to figure out who's going to win some primaries.  Want me to make some calls?  Meek wins.  Fisher wins.  Hodes wins.  Brownback wins.  etc.  [the noms]

[Rowan]

Christie 45%
Corzine 38%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1288

[Keystone Phil]

Christie 45%
Corzine 38%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1288

Christie continues to slip...

Watch as the next poll shows something like Christie - 43%  Corzine - 40%

[Rowan]

Christie 45%
Corzine 38%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1288

Christie continues to slip...

Watch as the next poll shows something like Christie - 43%  Corzine - 40%

Continues to slip? It's called statistical noise. The only difference in the internals of the poll is that Corzine went from 69% of Democrats to 72%.

February 4- He's at 44%, Corzine is at 38%
March 12- He's at 46%, Corzine is at 37%
April 22- He's at 45%, Corzine is at 38%

Again, it's all just statistical noise.