Which members are likely to loose their seats due to reapportionment?

[Mr.Phips]

In Louisiana:  Rep. Landy
In Missouri:  Either Todd Akin or Russ Carnahan
In Illinois:  Bobby Schilling
In Michigan:  Gary Peters
In Ohio:  Betty Sutton and Rep. Johnson
In PA:  Mark Critz
In NY:  Rep. Reed and Gary Ackerman
In NJ:  Rush Holt or Leonard Lance
In MA:  Michael Capuano

[Mr.Phips]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

Doing more than just getting rid of Critz in PA-12 would risk making a map where Democrats could pick up several more seats.  Republicans are already way overrepresented in the state now.  They have to protect PA-03, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, and PA-11, and making PA-18 or PA-05 too Democratic could give Democrats an opportunity in those seats. 

[Mr.Phips]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

Doing more than just getting rid of Critz in PA-12 would risk making a map where Democrats could pick up several more seats.  Republicans are already way overrepresented in the state now.  They have to protect PA-03, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, and PA-11, and making PA-18 or PA-05 too Democratic could give Democrats an opportunity in those seats. 

Suggesting that the Dems would get PA 5 made your officially made your post laughable.

The rumored plan isn't risky at all. That was my point in following posts.

Democrats have held PA-05 before.  Its no more laughable than Republicans getting PA-13. 

[Mr.Phips]

Pennsylvania is apparently going to be more interesting than just getting rid of Critz. Not sure if the rumored plan is for real though.

Doing more than just getting rid of Critz in PA-12 would risk making a map where Democrats could pick up several more seats.  Republicans are already way overrepresented in the state now.  They have to protect PA-03, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, and PA-11, and making PA-18 or PA-05 too Democratic could give Democrats an opportunity in those seats. 

Suggesting that the Dems would get PA 5 made your officially made your post laughable.

The rumored plan isn't risky at all. That was my point in following posts.

Democrats have held PA-05 before.  Its no more laughable than Republicans getting PA-13. 

The current PA 5 hasn't had a Democratic Congressman.

It did from 1976 to 1978. 

[Mr.Phips]

Critz and Altmire could both be disposed of if Republicans wished to do so.

That would be almost impossible to do with endangering Tim Murphy and Mike Kelly. 

[Mr.Phips]

Critz and Altmire could both be disposed of if Republicans wished to do so.

That would be almost impossible to do with endangering Tim Murphy and Mike Kelly. 

Unless they make use of surplus Republicans in the 9th.

True, but doing that would be a total mess and would still require PA-18 to take in a lot of Democratic territory where Critz could move to and run in.  The best thing to do for Republicans would be to just chop up PA-12.  Chopping up PA-04 would create problems for Mike Kelly and Tim Murphy by adding part or all of traditionally heavily Democratic Beaver and Lawrence counties to their district.