The new Orlando seat and the seat West ran from should be lean D.
Just noticed MO-2. Should be lean R.
Both of those Florida districts were tough calls. Orlando was very close during 2004, but went for Obama by almost 20 percentage points. I'm not sure that the presidential results can be trusted to make an accurate prediction on how the district leans, seeing as though the most recent results could have been more of a fluke (maybe
).
Another factor is that neither of the candidates running in the genreal will be an incumbent, thus they're less known and can run from the party label and capitalize on voter ignorance (to an extent).
The final factor I can think of is Alan Greyson. If he wins the primary, he could have some trouble cleaning his name from his last run to win the general this time around.
As for Allen West's district, it still contains a bunch of the Republican areas along the shores of greater Miami, so I think it could go either way.
