How did Bush win CO, VA, & NV?

[Calthrina950]

Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada were all Republican-leaning states at the turn of the millennium. When Barack Obama won Colorado in 2008, he was the first Democrat to obtain an absolute majority there since Lyndon B. Johnson had done so in 1964. The Denver suburbs-particularly Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties-were once Republican strongholds, and did not vote Democratic in the period 1968-2004. Colorado's libertarian bent was much stronger during those decades, and the migration into the Denver metropolitan area, of more liberal elements, which has shifted the state's voting patterns, had not yet occurred. Moreover, the Republican "base counties" of the present-El Paso County in particular-were much more Republican at that time, further contributing to the state's partisan lean. Bush got two-thirds of the vote in El Paso County in both 2000 and 2004, and both his father and Reagan broke 70% there back in the 1980s. El Paso County was also one of the few counties in Colorado to give Bush a majority in 1992. Bill Clinton only won Colorado in 1992 (with a plurality), because of Ross Perot siphoning votes away from Bush, and when Perot's vote share declined in 1996, the state went back to the Republicans. Colorado did not begin trending Democratic in any appreciable fashion until 2004.

As for Virginia, it was a solidly Republican state from 1968-2004, with the Richmond and Northern Virginia suburbs having turned to the Republicans beginning in the 1940s. Virginia was the only Confederate state that Jimmy Carter lost in 1976 (and was later the only Confederate state carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016). When Kerry won Fairfax County in 2004, he was the first Democrat to prevail there since Johnson. And Obama in 2008 was the first Democrat to win Prince William and Loudoun Counties since Johnson as well. Demographic trends eventually tilted Virginia towards the Democrats in the 2000s, aided by the increase in the number of government workers and of more liberal transplants from elsewhere.

Finally, Nevada became a Republican-leaning state beginning in 1964, when Barry Goldwater did better there than his national average, and remained such until after the turn of the millennium, with Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 being the only Democrat to win the state from 1968-2004. Clark County experienced explosive growth during the 1970s and 1980s, and was a Republican bastion during that time. Demographic changes, like in Colorado and Virginia, gradually eroded the Republican dominance there, with the growth of the Hispanic population being the most significant factor. In 2000 and 2004, however, these changes had not yet reached full fruition, and Bush's appeal to the West helped him carry it over Gore. Nevada has also been a bellwether throughout most of the past century, with 1976 and 2016 being the only times the state has not voted for the winner of the Electoral College.

[Calthrina950]

Regarding Colorado and Nevada --- he won those states mostly because he won the popular vote by 2-3%. Had Romney or McCain won the popular vote by 2-3%, then they would have won Colorado and/or Nevada too.

It's tempting to say that Bush's 40% support from Hispanics gave him those states, but in 2004, Hispanics didn't constitute as much of the states's electorate as today (esp. in Colorado, which was probably over 80% white in 2004). Bush's 40% with Hispanics gave him New Mexico alone.

Regarding Virginia -- Bush won it because, in 2004, the Democrats did not yet realize that the state was purple, so they never contested the state (It wasn't until 2006 that Virginia became the state we know today). Kerry indeed made no visits to Virginia in 2004, nor did he devote any money to advertising there. As far as he (and the Democrats) were concerned, Virginia was simply a state that had not gone Democrat since 1964.

I would point out Hispanics are still irrelevant in Colorado, in 2016 78% of the vote was white and only 12% was Hispanic, the Republican problem in Colorado is whites there aren't Republican like they are in the rest of the nation outside of the west coast. Trump only won whites by 2% in Colorado which means whites in Colorado were 18% more democratic than whites nationally.

And this year, Trump probably lost whites by at least a mid single-digit margin, perhaps even a high single-digit one. As in 2008 with Obama, Colorado was the only state on the Great Continental Divide where Biden won the white vote.

[Calthrina950]

Regarding Colorado and Nevada --- he won those states mostly because he won the popular vote by 2-3%. Had Romney or McCain won the popular vote by 2-3%, then they would have won Colorado and/or Nevada too.

It's tempting to say that Bush's 40% support from Hispanics gave him those states, but in 2004, Hispanics didn't constitute as much of the states's electorate as today (esp. in Colorado, which was probably over 80% white in 2004). Bush's 40% with Hispanics gave him New Mexico alone.

Regarding Virginia -- Bush won it because, in 2004, the Democrats did not yet realize that the state was purple, so they never contested the state (It wasn't until 2006 that Virginia became the state we know today). Kerry indeed made no visits to Virginia in 2004, nor did he devote any money to advertising there. As far as he (and the Democrats) were concerned, Virginia was simply a state that had not gone Democrat since 1964.

I would point out Hispanics are still irrelevant in Colorado, in 2016 78% of the vote was white and only 12% was Hispanic, the Republican problem in Colorado is whites there aren't Republican like they are in the rest of the nation outside of the west coast. Trump only won whites by 2% in Colorado which means whites in Colorado were 18% more democratic than whites nationally.

And this year, Trump probably lost whites by at least a mid single-digit margin, perhaps even a high single-digit one. As in 2008 with Obama, Colorado was the only state on the Great Continental Divide where Biden won the white vote.

The Edison exit polls had Biden winning whites 57-41 over Trump, a 16% margin, one of the largest in the country, the exit poll interestingly enough had Biden winning non-whites only 55-42, by 13%, is Colorado one of the only states where the white vote is more democratic than the non-white vote.

I'm very skeptical of that number, to say the least, and the exit poll's margin for Biden among whites is larger than the margin he won the state by. But Colorado whites, as I noted above, are certainly the most Democratic in this region of the country, and Biden certainly had the best performance among them of any Democrat since Johnson.

[Calthrina950]

Because Bush did just well enough in the suburbs of Denver, it should be noted Colorado trended really hard D in 2004, it went from having a R+8.9 lean in 2000 to R+2.3. There were huge swings against Bush in the suburbs among affluent educated voters in Colorado. In Denver county for example his margin in 2000-2004 went from -31% to -40%.

Nevada he won because won the NPV, Nevada voted 0.1% more Republican than the nation in 2004, it should be noted NV also trended D in 2000-2004 moving from a R+4 lean to a R+0.1 lean. NV in 2016 voted D+0.3 relative to the nation so Bush basically did as well in NV relative to the nation as Trump did, its just he won the NPV.

Virginia he won because the suburbs in NOVA were not as democratic as they would become also VA also trended D from 2000-2004 going from a R+8.5 lean in 2000 to R+5.7


One point I would just make about Bush in 2004 more broadly is he did horribly in affluent areas compared to previous Republicans such as his father in 1988 relative to the NPV, Bush really won because he made huge gains in small towns and rural areas. In that regard, Bush in 2000 and 2004 set the template for how Republicans could win in the future.

Expanding on this, in 2000, Bush's margin in Colorado (8.36%) was abnormally large (and Gore's share of the vote abnormally low), because of Ralph Nader. Nader got 5.25% of the vote that year, and this enabled Bush to win normally Democratic counties such as Clear Greek, Eagle, Gunnison, La Plata, Routt, and San Juan. To date, Bush is the last Republican to win these counties. He also carried Conejos County, which was still a Democratic-leaning county at that time.

In 2004, virtually of the Nader vote consolidated behind Kerry, and that, along with a general surge in turnout, is why Bush's margin fell (to 4.67%), although he got a higher percentage than in 2000. It is also why those counties flipped and why the suburbs moved towards Kerry. Bush is the last Republican to win Arapahoe, Jefferson, and Larimer Counties-which are vital for any statewide candidate seeking to win-and is the only Republican to have won Broomfield (which was created in 2001, and is Colorado's newest county).

As for Nevada, Bush did decently well with Hispanic voters. Geographically speaking, he won Washoe County by just over 10% in 2000 and held Gore to a 6.59% margin in Clark County. In 2004, however, Kerry consolidated the Nader vote and closed the gap in Washoe County, where Bush's margin fell to 4.21%. Bush, however, narrowed the margin in Clark County to 4.84%. Hence, that is why he held Nevada that year, although his overall statewide margin decreased from 3.54% to 2.59%. Bush is the last Republican to have won Washoe County, although it has been competitive since (aside from 2008), being within single digits in 2012 and 2020 and going to Clinton by a very narrow plurality in 2016.