Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

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Mainstreet Technologies shows a three-way race

Canada: Cons 30% NDP 30% Lib 29% Green 6% BQ 4%

Atlantic: Lib 43% Cons 26% NDP 24% Green 7%
Quebec: NDP 32% Lib 30% Cons 20% BQ 15% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 33% NDP 31% Lib 31% Green 5%
Manitoba: Cons 44% Lib 34% NDP 17% Green 5%
Saskatchewan: Cons 46% NDP 29% Lib 18% Green 8%
Alberta: Cons 50% Lib 23% NDP 19% Green 7%
BC: NDP 40% Lib 25% Cons 22% Green 13%

I find Mainstreet number to be very whacky. Just two weeks ago they had the CPC at 45% in Ontario and the NDP at 21% - now they have the CPC at 33 and the NDP at 31 - does anyone seriously believe that a swing of that magnitude happened just in the last two weeks? ...and no other poll released this week has the Liberals anywhere near 30% in Quebec - they are hovering around 20%

It was very clearly a rogue poll. Looking at their crosstabs, they had a Conservative lead in every age group, with the largest Conservative lead in the 18-34 year age group (37C, 20L, 19N). I initially thought it might be a transcription error in that age breakdown, with the Conservative vote being entered against the NDP and the NDP vote being entered against the Conservatives, but it's obviously trickled through in other parts of the poll (NDP polling at just 16% in Ontario, 17% Prairies and 19% in Alberta?).

Here is the link again.

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EKOS: 33.4/26.7/25.6.

That's not as strange as I thought it would be. The way Graves was talking, I thought he'd have the Tories at 40%

Cons are down two percent in this poll from the previous EKOS survey.

However the previous pill had them up about six percent, which always seemed a bit high. This poll is therefore perhaps emphasising a modest increase in Conservative votes, rather than last week's exuberant increase in Conservative votes. A two percent fall following a six percent gain is still a four percent gain (or thereabouts after rounding).