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That does not take into account PA/MI/WI though. Really the EC advantage is almost entirely based on the margins on Midwestern/Rust Belt Swing States

LDP will not be running a candidate in Tokyo Gov election. Koike should easily cruise to a third term.

Smart decision.

The conventional wisdom right now is that it will move towards Biden but there isn't really much evidence to say that it can't shift towards Trump again.

People mention the midterm US House races but I feel like that is flawed logic. In 2022 there were 435 different races in 435 different districts. Each and every candidate was different, and the GOP just happened to nominate better candidates in more safe districts and weaker ones in the key battlegrounds. However, this year Trump vs Biden is going to be the exact same matchup in every state, in every county, in every city, and every precinct.

Not to mention that in 2020 very few people expected the EC advantage to shift nearly an entire point towards Trump. I'm not saying that it will happen again but its a seriously underrated possibility. In 2016 it was 3.1, in 2020 it was 3.9, if it creeps up even just a little bit to 4.2 or so, that would spell very bad news to Biden's campaign. If it goes a full 0.8% towards Trump again it would be requiring a Biden win of 4.7% to break even. (Swing isn't universal but still worth noting)

I talked about the midterm theory above, but a more valid but still doubtful one is the NY-CA one. In it, Trump makes massive gains in NY FL and CA and not the swing states which lowers the threshold.  The biggest flaw with this one though is it leaves out Texas. NY and Florida's population is only 2/3 the size of the giants California and Texas. If Trump is improving in Texas by a significant amount that means he must be making gains in DFW and Houston which would have to be replicating in Phoenix and Atlanta. I think this theory makes more sense, but I don't know why people rule out the EC advantage shifting towards Trump.

What percent of Romney-Clinton/Biden voters does Hogan end up getting?

About two thirds I'd assume. They are ground zero of his crossover appeal.

US PLACES TRAVELING

This is a good video of why 2004 hopes are little far fetched. These are the reasons he gives:

1. There is no reasonable study that has shown that lower turnout hurts the BJP. Some studies have shown that sometimes lower turnout could benefit the BJP as well

2. NDA is far stronger in UP/Bihar than it was in 2004. In 2004 the NDA only won 22 seats in both states while in 2019 that number was 101 and they got over a 50% vote share as well

3. Ram Mandir helps among Northern voters where the BJP has a lot of seats

4. There is no equivalent to Sonia Gandhi in 2004 for the opposition and the lack of one major leader gives the BJP the advantage on the issue of "strong stable leadership"

5. The BJP has far more momentum in the south today than it did back in 2004 and far more seats are winnable for them there then there was back then.

[A Trump-Biden Tie Would Be a Political Nightmare — But Maybe a Boon to Democracy]

...with Donald Trump in the role of John Quincy Adams:

A Trump-Biden Tie Would Be a Political Nightmare — But Maybe a Boon to Democracy
The political upheaval of 1824 changed America. The same could happen in 2024.

My state voted for Fremont, although all three major candidates (Buchanan, Fillmore, and Fremont) won some counties in the state.

Biden has the WH with 275, Trump isn't leading by 12 in NV and 7 in AZ

James Buchanan by a three:two ratio over ex-President Millard Fillmore of the Know-Nothing Party.  It doesn't seem that John C. Fremont (much like Abraham Lincoln in 1860) was even on the ballot in Virginia.  

Lincoln was actually on the ballot in Virginia in 1860

And apparently so was John C. Fremont in 1856.  They were such non-factors that I completely overlooked the fact that (legally speaking) Virginia and other slave states couldn't just eliminate those candidates from their ballots, though electoral results make it seem that they did.