Anyone willing to make any predictions such as
How many seats do the Tories lose?
How many seats does Labour gain?
Who wins the West Midlands mayoralty?
Who wins the Teesside mayoralty?
Labour margin in Blackpool South
any other hot contests?
Statistical modeler
Ben Walker estimates 478 Conservative losses, with a little over half in the net change going to Labour. So yes, I also think the Tory estimate of 500 loss council seats is a good topline benchmark to look for.
But that is not the full story.
Control and gaining seats in the right areas arguably matter more. That is the Labour line going into today. So here are some benchmarks for change in power:
Hartlepool: Labour landslide flips Con + Indie -> Labour majority
NE Lincolnshire: Con majority -> Con Minority
Dudley: Con majority -> Labour Minority or Majority
Tamworth: Con minority -> Labour Minority or Majority
Cannock Chase: Labour Minority -> Labour Majority
Redditch: Con majority -> Labour Majority
Nuneaton: Con majority -> Labour Majority
Rugby: Con Minority -> Labour + Lib-Dem coalition
Dorset: Con Majority -> Lib-Dem Majority
Adur: Con majority -> Labour Minority or Majority
Basingstoke & Deane: Indie led Coalition -> Labour or Lib-Dem led Coalition
Rushmoor: Con Majority -> Labour Minority or Majority
Wokingham: Lib-Dem minority -> Lib-Dem majority
Cherwell: Con Minority -> Labour + Lib-Dem coalition
Milton Keynes: Labour Minority -> Labour Majority
Elmbridge: Lib-Dem minority -> Lib-Dem Majority
Welwyn Hatfield: Lib-Dem + Labour coalition -> Lib-Dem + Labour tie for coalition leadership
Harlow: Con majority -> Labour Majority
Brentwood: Lib-Dem minority -> Lib-Dem majority
Basildon: Con Majority -> Con minority with potential for opposition coalition
Thurrock: Con Minority -> Labour Minority or Majority
Southend: Con Minority -> Labour Minority
These are priced on most of the estimates you see. But then there are the actual confusing councils, usually cause of the lack of nationalization or an extreme amount of it. Potential Gaza backlash or the potential lack of it matters in some of these. This is something new so models and observers can't exactly pinpoint it's potential viability:
Maidstone: Con minority ->
Coalition
Hastings: Green + Indie Coalition ->
Coalition
Bristol: Labour Minority -> Green Minority?
Stroud: Green led coalition -> Green or Labour majority?
Gloucester: Con Majority ->
Coalition
Worcester: Labour + Green Coalition -> Labour majority?
Oxford: Labour minority -> Labour Majority or Lib-Dem led Coalition?
Norwich: Labour Minority -> Labour Majority or Green + Labour Defector Coalition?
Cambridge: Labour Majority -> Labour Minority?
Peterborough: Con Minority? ->
Coalition
Hyndburn: Con Minority -> Labour Majority?
Pendle + Burnley: Labour-Defector Led Coalitions ->
Rochdale, Manchester, Bradford, and Others: Will Gaza-focused candidates - sometimes Indie sometimes under local or Galloway labels - takes seats of Labour?
