Australian by-elections, 2018

[Intell]

#Labor Collapse amirite???

[Intell]

This isn't happening in Australia, there is a stark class divide within the cities. Working class vote Labor. Rich vote Liberal, beside some professional class in the media that live in gentrifying neighborhoods that are turning green.

The class divide is more negated when you go in rural areas without industry, where even those at the lower socioeconomic divide vote for right-wing parties.

Also in the UK Corbyn's win in Kensington is due to it having high levels of income inequality with more labour-friendly demographics voting in higher droves. While there has been a shift of the professional middle class to the left in the UK, the class divide is still strong there.

[Intell]

These old patterns explain a lot of voting behaviour..:until they don’t. It wasn’t that long ago that the Republicans were the party of the rich and the Democrats were the party of the white working class. In 1976 Marin County votes for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter. Last year it went to Clinton over Trump by something like an 85% to 15% margin. In the UK never mind Kensington, Labour also won seats like Battersea which are full of rich young professionals who are very Remain. I might add that Corbyn’s own riding of Islaington is a very very high income riding full of professionals and academics who at one time likely would have voted Tory.

It’s probably just a matter of time before this happens in Australia as the Liberals go the way of the GOP and the Tories the UK and Canada and make themselves totally unattractive to anyone with a post secondary education.

'young' 'youg' 'young'. Islington is also far from 'very very high income' 'Very very high income' areas in London voted tory.

[Intell]

Endorsing Phelps. I mean if I want was a Wentworth voter, I would make the decision on who to preference first in the ballot box and be undecided throughout the campaign (as I was). Eventually would prefrence Phelps (1) over Labor's Tim Murray due to how this loss would made them lose their majority and Phelps would fare better against Sharma than Tim Murray.

[Intell]

95% chance that Phelps win this. The wealthier polling booths of the electorates have a swing about 25% to Phelp as do the less wealthier and more hipster parts of the electorates.

[Intell]

Anthony Green projects Phelps to win.

[Intell]

Sharma caught up due to postal votes, race back to undecided. Phelps the favourite to win though. The proportion of postal votes are high, people are saying this could be to do with the Jewish vote as there was a religious holiday on voting day.

This also shows how much of a surge Phelps had during the end of the campaign.