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Author Topic: Post your AZ & MI predictions here  (Read 5014 times)
hotpprs
Rookie
**
Posts: 85
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.77, S: 3.83

« on: February 28, 2012, 09:22:01 AM »

Michigan:
Santorum 41%
Romney 38%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 9%

Arizona:
Romney 46%
Santorum 21%
Gingrich 20%
Paul 13%
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hotpprs
Rookie
**
Posts: 85
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.77, S: 3.83

« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2012, 10:00:55 PM »

Well, things could change, but it looks like the polls were fairly accurate, but all the swing votes went Romney's way. The polls and a lot of people here said 38% for Santorum. That's about what it looks he will end up with if things hold.
I wonder if the swing voters were turned off by the robocalls sent to the Dems to vote against Romney?
I was thinking that it was a good thing that Dems were doing that to bust on Romney, until the middle of the day today when I heard about the Santorum robocalls and Santorum defending it. Not that I think it is a bad thing trying to get Dem votes, Romney would not turn away Dem votes either, but it seems the last minute voters in any race are very susceptible to last minute controversies. I didn't think Santorum needed to do that, he had made a little bounce back after the poor Arizona debate. The Dems probably would have voted that way anyway without the robocalls. Still not a bad showing for Santorum. It still makes him viable as a VP if keeps things neck and neck up to the convention. But only if Rubio turns it down. But that's a whole other forum topic.
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hotpprs
Rookie
**
Posts: 85
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.77, S: 3.83

« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2012, 10:52:51 PM »

Romney 41%
Santorum 36%
Paul  12%
Gingrich 8%

I don't want to start a fight here, as there is only 84% of the vote in as of this reply, but it looks like you nailed it 9iron. A few people may have been closer with just Romney and Santorum's percentages alone, but it looks like you got it right with Paul and Gingrich included, which is key. Gingrich's continued poor showing is important, which is why you got right more then anyone else overall. The only way for someone other then Romney to win at this point is for Gingrich to drop out. If Santorum drops out, I still think Gingrich doesn't have a chance whatsoever with his poor showings. So it's about a 95% chance Romney gets the nomination at this point unless Gingrich does something bold by dropping out after Super Tuesday. With the winner take all states, and and with NY and California surely going to Romney, Santorum would even have to win a major majority of all the conservative votes in the south to even have a prayer. But I don't think that is going to happen, Gingrich won't drop out, I have no idea why,  so I have to start warming up to the idea that it's make or break with Romney.
 
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