North Korea Mega Thread

[KingSweden]

Follow on evaluation article on 38N http://www.38north.org/2017/08/jschilling080117/

Good stuff! Thanks

[KingSweden]

Learn from Iraq and don't listen to Graham. Get the international community to threaten China with multilateral sanctions unless they discipline North Korea.

OBOR makes that (by design) profoundly unlikely

[KingSweden]

There's a good possibility that even if regime change happens the North Korean citizens won't go quietly. Many hate the regime but many are also brainwashed into loving it. Worst I can see is Vietcong-level resistance to a democratic North Korea or unified Korea.

Imagine the trouble West Germany had integrating the east, times about a 1000

[KingSweden]

Given that the last three US administrations have all taken rather hard-line approaches toward North Korea, I've been wondering: if another candidate (Hillary, Sanders, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Carson, or Jeb) had won in 2016, would that person have taken an approach any different from Trump's current approach, and would the outcome have been any different?

Sanders *maybe*, but the others? No

[KingSweden]

They wouldn't strike Guam itself, but the statement said they would consider hitting the waters around Guam as a warning. That's also a crucial distinction that's not being made in a lot of the reporting. The point is we're currently in a cycle of escalation and it's something that has to be broken.

Would they strike in international waters or in Guam's waters?

Would it matter? Not legally, necessarily, but that's a serious provocation

[KingSweden]

I came across an interesting claim from a defector Jang Jin-sung from a few years ago which claims that Kim Jong-un is not an absolute ruler but is a figurehead hemmed in by a shadowy organization called the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) consisting of an "old boys club network" of Kim Jong Il's former friends, and allied with the military. Under his telling the real leader of North Korea is Hwang Pyong-so. Kim's uncle Jang song-Thaek was protected by his relation to Kim Jong-Il but after Kim Jong-Il's death he was no longer protected so the OGD got rid of him. Also Kim Jong-Il supported moderates in the North Korean Foreign Ministry but after his August 2008 stroke the military gained more influence over foreign affairs, which is why North Korea did not return to Six-Party talks after early 2009. Hence the legacy of the past nine years is a loss of power of the Kim family, and isolation of Kim Jong-un to his much older Generals and the OGD. Interesting theory, in any case.

Sovietology back in vogue

[KingSweden]

Interesting article on the extent of how much the China-North Korea relationship has soured.

Oh, that is fascinating.

I wonder how we should react if North Korea lobs a nuclear missile at China, instead of Guam or the continental United States.  More importantly, how would China respond?  Would it flood troops into North Korea, and effectively annex it after annihilating the Kim dynasty root and branch?  

I don't think annexing North Korea is on the PRC's wishlist. Their wishlist would go more towards installing a pliant puppet ruler who was dependent on PLA soldiers and cash to stay in power who would be less willing to do crazy rogue state antics while still being a buffer against South Korea.

Honestly I'd be cool with this outcome, realpolitik as it may be. The Kims are out-of-their-gourds insane

[KingSweden]

North Korea accuses Trump of declaring war

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I just hope this is more posturing.

Since we technically never stopped being at war in Korea, it's absolutely posturing.

[KingSweden]

NK was able to hack 235 GB of SK/US OPLANs including 5015 and 3100. This is a huge deal and a disaster. All of our plans will have to be re-written.

http://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-cyber-army-hacked-us-south-korea-plans-decapitate-kim-jong-un-681414

God Dammit.

Looks like they also got OPLAN 5027 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korean-hackers-stole-us-and-south-korean-wartime-plans-seoul-lawmaker-says/2017/10/10/036fb82c-adc6-11e7-99c6-46bdf7f6f8ba_story.html?utm_term=.9c4727b66f00

Background here http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/01/why-5027-is-a-number-you-should-know-how-war-in-korea-might-unfold/

We most likely won't put hundreds of thousands of troops in NK but should the OPLAN contain relevant material (highly likely) to air and naval movements, etc. it would need to be drastically rewritten.

This is a huge "oh sh*t" moment for planners.

This is probably what that Mattis/Kelly meeting was about

Also our security services (DoD included) seriously need to get their cyber sh*t together. This is ridiculous

[KingSweden]

Implication of the amendment to executive order 13223?

Worth keeping an eye on, but we’ll see... that USA Today article suggested the AF shortage had been ongoing for some time

[KingSweden]

Implication of the amendment to executive order 13223?

Worth keeping an eye on, but we’ll see... that USA Today article suggested the AF shortage had been ongoing for some time

It's the AF shortage but could also be used in the case of war for all branches. Was talking about this with some retired officers yesterday. The thing is that if war were to occur, it would be a lot of quick and massive strikes using assets in theater and the surge of personnel really wouldn't be necessary unless we invade NK which is a non-starter to China.

What’s the air power like in the theater currently? Navy and AF?

[KingSweden]

Van Jackson‏
@WonkVJ

More Van Jackson Retweeted Steve Herman
Admin source tells me "Everyone wants 'preemptive war' now except for Mattis." Normal Korea experts have no idea how serious this is
Steve HermanVerified account @W7VOA
Tonight's Nelson Report (a reputable newsletter on NE Asia): Removing personal assets from #ROK now advisable, say sr. admin. officials.
3:01 PM - 21 Oct 2017

https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/921859016883552256

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The link contains the RT of the Herman source image. He is VOA's WH Bureau chief and not John Q. Noone down the road. This is big, even if it's not imminent, the advisable warning with informal intent leading to formal maybe later is a huge development. Watch out for CSGs. If there are two or three on station near the peninsula in the next couple of months, that will be a sign, along with family and non-essential staff evacuations.

From the twitter account you linked, what I gather is it seems like the administration is trying to egg North Korea on until they make the first move.

That’s the only way to keep China out.

[KingSweden]

3 carriers in the region (big strategic step if a strike is ordered) https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/27/north-korea-us-operating-three-carriers-in-the-pacific.html

This is the single most likely sign of war I've seen. Far more ominous than belligerent tweets.

It's on its way to the PG but it could be ordered to stay on station if needed. Right now it's scheduled to swap with the Nimitz for OIR air support. https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/3-us-carrier-strike-groups-enter-asia-pacific-ahead-of-trumps-visit/

PG = Persian Gulf I assume?

[KingSweden]

3 carriers in the region (big strategic step if a strike is ordered) https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/27/north-korea-us-operating-three-carriers-in-the-pacific.html

This is the single most likely sign of war I've seen. Far more ominous than belligerent tweets.

Trump will be in South Korea in a week. I really just think its a show of power.

Anyone think that Kim might choose Trump's visit to make some kind of demonstration (nuke or missile test)?

Yes.

I also think it would be profoundly dangerous for Trump to visit the DMZ

[KingSweden]

Pence to troops, "Now, more than ever, your commander in chief is depending on you to be ready"

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/27/pence-north-korea-troops-be-ready-244250

Well that’s just wonderful

[KingSweden]

Report that NK hacked Daewoo Shipbuilding and got warship blueprints https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/31/north-korea-hacked-daewoo-shipbuilding-took-warship-blueprints-south-korea-lawmaker.html

SK needs to up their cyber game in a big way to prevent this. Second strike for SK failing to protect mil docs.

NK’s hacking abilities are insane. Call me paranoid, but there’s no way they’re not getting outside help.

Bear in mind who their patron is, and how good said patron is at the same thing

[KingSweden]

The Joint Chiefs say that NK can only have its nuclear weapons program disarmed through a ground invasion.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41878123

Don't know if this is bad news as it makes Trump more likely to preemptively strike, or if it sends the message that we should only get involved if we're going to go 100% and not just using airstrikes and risking NK reprisal.

The latter, though it probably opens the door to the former

[KingSweden]

The Joint Chiefs say that NK can only have its nuclear weapons program disarmed through a ground invasion.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41878123

Don't know if this is bad news as it makes Trump more likely to preemptively strike, or if it sends the message that we should only get involved if we're going to go 100% and not just using airstrikes and risking NK reprisal.

A little of both but more the former because any ground ops would be done largely by US SOF with light footprints and SK SOF and conventional. Potentially the PLA sweeping in from the north against the NKs if it really goes downhill from here.

Any credence to the idea PRC would reunify under Seoul in exchange for US withdrawal from the peninsula?

[KingSweden]

I’m wayyyyy more worried about NK and it’s Chinese patron than I am Iran.

[KingSweden]

Per Business Insider - Stephen Cha, a former Asia policy expert for the GWB NSC, will be appointed Ambassador to the ROK. An outstanding choice.

[KingSweden]

Lindsey Graham says there's a 30% chance US will strike NK, rising to 70% if they conduct another nuclear test: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/lindsey-graham-war-north-korea-trump/548381/

Missile or nuclear?

[KingSweden]

Update:

NK now working on anthrax/other bio agent ICBMs https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/12/20/report-north-korea-now-testing-biological-weapon-anthrax-on-icbms/23313045/

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Def not a good thing.

This may be a redline for China... saw some interesting tweets about the PRC building six lane highways toward the DPRK border in recent months

[KingSweden]

BREAKING: US considering "limited" strike on NK, expecting it not to escalate IOT give NK a "bloody nose." Epic stupidity thinking that the NKs will not escalate when they respond in kind. Wow.

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-reportedly-wants-bloody-nose-strike-against-north-korea-2017-12

BBC sourcing comes from The Daily Telegraph sources from within the administration.

That is remarkably terrible analysis by whatever hack thinks it’ll end at a “bloody nose.” This isn’t Syria or Libya we’re talking about