VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[SoLongAtlas]

Monmouth

Northam 47 (nc)
Gillespie 45 (-3)
Hyra 3

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-Monmouth

What exactly is the central region of Virginia like in terms of the rural/urban divide and electorate?

Huge. Almost like two different worlds. A little bit more akin to NoVA re Midlothian and suburbs of Richmond and the same for Cville but other than that, it's rural everywhere in the Piedmont region and largely GOP leading or trending.

For a visual: https://www.google.com/maps/@37.4778586,-78.3691333,162645m/data=!3m1!1e3

Almost no cities and several small towns that lean GOP. A ton of trees and farms. It's peaceful there, growing Piedmont wine and tourism, craft beer scene. Some industry but largely retail, farming, trucking, and some office jobs (Richmond and Cville and some in Lynchburg), but overall a lot of people from the Piedmont (myself included) have come to NoVA for jobs. Piedmont has massive brain drain from HS and UVA/Richmond kids leaving the area. It also features a lot of folks retiring to the farm country from New England, NY/NJ, which residents there absolutely hate but it's not as bad as it once was. When I was in HS, I overheard a convo saying that "they needed jobs, but no those Yankee jobs coming down here."

[SoLongAtlas]

So I finally saw the Latino Victory Fund ad everyone's been freaking out about and I gotta say that not only do I fail to see anything even remotely offensive about it (the point it raises is an entirely legitimate one), I'd argue it was remarkably tame for an attack ad (and one that raised a pretty fair question; Donald Trump's certainly not done anything to suggest he has a problem with minorities being run over by white supremacists, his first impulse with Charlottsville was clearly to side with the Nazis).  It's really not even a smear, tbh.  

I'm not a fan of using the term "snowflake" to describe anyone, but if ever there was a case where the term applied, it's to people who were "offended" by that ad (all due respect to VirginiaModerate, who AFAIK is a pretty reasonable guy).  Honestly, I don't blame the Latino Victory Fund for running it and if Northam had just not commented on it, it'd probably have been treated like the nothingburger it is by most.

It's not a matter of offense. Offense is emotional. The ad made an appeal to shifting metrics. You have to think in the eyes of GOP operatives and voters and how they would (and did) react. It was far from a nothingburger but not the worst thing ever - the truck did stop short and the video didn't have kids being run over.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

[SoLongAtlas]

Around when do results start coming in tomorrow?

8 or 9 for a good but not full picture, rural counties post first, Ffx and PW last to get to 100% http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Statewide.html

[SoLongAtlas]

Alright, I'm going to provide some actual, local insight into the situation especially re PW County (my county). We're at work! I plan to vote after I get off work today, go home, and drive down to the voting location. PW is largely commuter and works in Ffx, Arlington, Alexandria, or D.C. Expect turnout to pick up after 4 and 5 for obvious reasons.

[SoLongAtlas]

Any turnout reports from Alexandria and/or Loudon county?

"As of noon, Alexandria has 35.9% turnout (including absentees). Maury is leading the way at 42%. Patrick Henry is at 19%." https://twitter.com/justindotnet/status/927952018882351104

Also rainy and miserable. Think the movie The Mist.

[SoLongAtlas]

Great night. Over an hour's worth of traffic to get back home and conditions were miserable but cast my vote for Northam around 5:30ish. Glad he won.

Also this, Trump couldn't help himself:

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump  12 hours ago
Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don’t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!

If he did embrace him, it would have been an even bigger wave election. He doesn't see the writing on the wall.

Also, if the 50-50 HoD tie holds, expect some Rs to switch to either Indies or Dems before or during the next full session.

[SoLongAtlas]

I know a handful of Obama 2012 Trump 2016 voters personally. Of course, it's just a handful of people in Ohio. I actually get the impression he's really well liked up here compared to places like Colorado or Virginia.

Trump seems to do well in the blue collar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) whereas I think more upscale whites in Virginia and Colorado will be a problem for him. Florida I have no clue.

As I've been saying for a couple of years now, Virginia is basically gone for the GOP. Atleast in the short-term.

I noticed the difference between upscale white, more socially conscious voters in places like Virginia and Colorado and downscale white, less politically correct voters in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan. Pennsylvania has a little of both.

I've found this demographic very, very fascinating since I've been harping on it for years and it ended up being the decisive forgotten votes that propelled Trump to the White House.

I think two things have big factors with these voters:

1. Money
- For anyone of my friends or family, even those of us who make good money for white working class Americans, in order to move to a state like Colorado or Virginia, especially a nice place, we would need a significant amount of money. This tells me that many of these white voters in Virginia and Colorado are actually quite well off, perhaps more college degrees. This could also allow them to embrace more of a social justice agenda than people like myself and many in the Midwest since our focus is still on economics.

2. Class
- To be honest, the things that "shocked" all those yoga-training career oriented 28 year old college educated women in a place like Prince William County didn't really have an impact in a place like Lake County, OH or Macomb County, MI. I think political correctness is a much, much bigger issue once you don't have finances to worry about and if you have much more college education.

None the less, I find these white voter differences very interesting as they will be useful in predicting elections in the future.

Virginia is not gone for Republicans statewide, moreso presidential. They have a base in VB, rural Virginia, and huge numbers in SW. The trick is to moderate and when I say moderate, I mean actual moderation, pre-1980s style GOP. The GOP has turned up the Trumpism heat in VA and it only helps them with their base in rural and let's face it, dying off literally and figuratively, parts of the state.

You are correct in terms of the point about VA having a white professional class, esp. in NoVA and Richmond. It makes these areas either Dem control or potential for moderate and liberal Republican swing districts but the GOP won't do that for the sake of RINO! in the primaries. It will haunt them for a couple more decades, at least. However, the idea that Virginia is now free to have Dems run full-tilt on SJW issues in VA is absolutely wrong. Economic issues, education, infrastructure, and good governance, are still the major issues here.

[SoLongAtlas]

Fairfax: 68%
Arlington: 80%
Alexandria: 78%
Loudoun: 60%
Prince William: 61%
Albemarle: 64%
Henrico: 60%
Chesterfield: 49% (!!!)

Hell even Stafford: 47%

But aren't several of these counties, particularly Chesterfield which you highlight, heavily Suburban?

Well yes, I was just pointing out that these are historic margins in the VA suburbs for Democrats, and historic lows for Republicans. Every county I listed there (excluding Arlington and Alexandria, which are hardly counties) were Bush 2000 counties. That's hard to fathom at this point.

They will remain in the D column pending any true moderation by the GOP (not going to happen soon). The next county that will go D full time is Stafford.

The VA GOP won't moderate and will go full-on Confederate Corey, imo, thus providing even more Dem waves.

[SoLongAtlas]

Hugo now up by 15 votes http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

[SoLongAtlas]

True. So I checked the VA Elections Dept page again. They have the updated numbers for PW but still haven't updated the Ffx portion yet. VPAP has Tanner up at https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/election-8842/map/

[SoLongAtlas]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

[SoLongAtlas]

VPAP still has a timestamp of 1:30 a.m. 11/8 on their site for this race, meaning their numbers are old. VA Dept of Elections numbers have been updated as of 28 mins ago.

Update: Not all of Ffx data is up to date on the DoE page by precincts, provisionals, and absentees so Tanner still has a shot.

[SoLongAtlas]

“Welcome to Venezuela,” Findlay (Executive Director for the RPV)said afterward. “This is how elections happen in Venezuela, Soviet Russia and now the commonwealth of Virginia. We don’t like the winners, we’re gonna have a new election.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-holds-off-certifying-tight-house-race-amid-new-claims-of-ballot-mix-ups/2017/11/20/780bf2a6-ce12-11e7-9d3a-bcbe2af58c3a_story.html

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LOL NOW THAT'S RICH! RPV only likes it when the purge voters from their rolls and engage in dirty tricks and ads to gin up voters downstate but when it hits them in the a**, the elections are tantamount to Soviet Russia.

[SoLongAtlas]

Not to double post but this deserves a separate post. Mark Cole of the 88th district, one of the districts affected in the screwup of ballots, has said some pretty suspicious stuff in the past (along with pushing bathroom bills after that). This was his gem from back in 2010, pushing an anti-RFID bill to prevent "the mark of the beast."

“My understanding — I’m not a theologian — but there’s a prophecy in the Bible that says you’ll have to receive a mark, or you can neither buy nor sell things in end times,” Cole said, as quoted at the Washington Post. “Some people think these computer chips might be that mark.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/09/AR2010020903796.html

How these nuts remain in office remains a mystery, other than the fact that their constituents have failed to call them out on their BS. At least Marshall was defeated.