Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Vosem]

Isn’t Ayelet Shaked far and away the most popular incumbent Israeli Cabinet member? I assume a party led by her would at least be capable of passing the threshold. Also, the case of leading a small personalist minor party and using it as a vehicle to take the leadership of a major party has happened in Israel — presumably it would be easier for Bennett or Shaked to contend for Likud leadership from within a personalist vehicle than from Jewish Home, which is descended from the NRP and has a long history as an independent political force.

And, yeah, Ayelet Shaked is stunning.

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I've read quite a bit about Israeli politics and recently spent time in Israel but still have this question: What do the Arab parties differ on? Like I know Hadash is broadly a "joint Jewish-Arab" Communist party, but what makes the others different? Is one less extreme than the others?

My understanding back when there were three is that Hadash was a communist party, with a majority Arab membership but with some Jewish support, while Balad was an Arab nationalist party that had ties to the Syrian government and Ra'am (the United Arab List) was a religious Muslim party. Ta'al, which was small in the 2000s but has grown since then and has run on joint lists with all of these parties, is a Palestinian nationalist party.

"Zionist parties" do not enter government with non-Zionist parties (who do not recognize the Jewish nature of the state of Israel; this means the Arab parties), but in the past left-wing governments have accepted support from left-wing non-nationalist Arab parties (Hadash and Mada, a broadly left-wing exclusively-Arab breakaway from Labor which is since defunct) without giving them positions in the Cabinet. Whether such cooperation is possible today is questionable -- from Balad it is almost certainly not.

One of the underrated ways in which the Israeli left has become weaker is the shift in the Arab vote from supporting the Israeli left to supporting non-Zionist parties that the Israeli left's base doesn't approve of coalitions with, meaning that they need to win over a greater percentage of the Jewish vote than they needed in the past to form government, which is very difficult.

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Jewish Home has selected Rafi Peretz, the former head Rabbi in the army, as its new leader. His first job is going to be figuring out with whom the party will run with.

So what's the deal with Smotrich?

Smotrich is the head of the Tkuma faction (or party), which was a founding member of the National Union back in 1999 but has run on a joint list with Jewish Home (which is larger) in 2013 and 2015. (In 2015 specifically, they were allocated the second, eighth, thirteenth, and seventeenth spots on the Jewish Home list; Uri Ariel and Bezalel Smotrich were elected from the second and eighth spots, respectively. Tkuma has suffered from a lack of differentiation from the broader Jewish Home; for instance, current Deputy Minister of Defense Eli Ben-Dahan was originally a Tkuma member, but switched to the broader Jewish Home in 2015 so he could run in the primaries (where he came second after Ayelet Shaked, and so fourth on the main list since spots one and two were reserved for Bennett and Ariel).

Smotrich is prominent on social media and might be the most famous person running in the Jewish Home in 2019, so he wants the top spot for himself, but in the past couple elections the Tkuma leader has been second instead of heading the list. Why they don't just merge is unclear to me -- Uri Ariel ran on a platform of merging them for the Tkuma leadership, but Smotrich beat him.

Anyway...any thoughts from our Israeli posters on what to watch for in the Likud primaries on Tuesday? English-language pieces I've read have been very rudimentary.

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It looks like today Netanyahu and former MK (2003-2014) and lower-ranking minister (2009-2014) Gideon Sa'ar, who came in first in the Likud primaries in 2009 and 2013 but has been on a sabbatical from politics for several years before returning this year, are openly attacking each other, with Bibi accusing Sa'ar of plotting to overthrow him in a coup and worried that if Sa'ar can place first in the primary such a coup might even be plausible:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-steps-up-attacks-on-likud-rival-saar-ahead-of-primary/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-likud-primaries-netanyahu-endorses-former-aide-accused-in-submarine-scandal/

The fight over the first slot in the Likud (whether it will go to Sa'ar or someone else -- the fact that who the "someone else" might be is unclear makes me think that Sa'ar is probably favored here), and the fight over the slot reserved for a new candidate from Tel Aviv (where Bibi's aide David Sharan and Sa'ar's aide Michal Shir are going up against each other; this is for position #29, which is pretty heavily favored, if not quite certain, to make it into the next Knesset) have become important proxy battles, though Bibi and Sa'ar have begun attacking each other openly. So, Israelis: is it plausible that Sa'ar could actually try to overthrow Netanyahu, especially if the latter is indicted? Would he be a stronger candidate, since he lacks Netanyahu's skeletons, or weaker since he is less experienced?

Also, nice to see that MK Amir Ohana, the first openly-gay right-wing member of the Knesset, who entered in 2015 off the very marginal slot #32, has become very popular and is apparently favored to perform well in the primaries.

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Jerusalem Post reports that the top two finishers are likely to be Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein and Housing Minister Yoav Galant, who switched from Kulanu for this election with Netanyahu's blessing and is in the running for Defense Minister. Edelstein isn't a close Bibi ally (Galant has been running as one in these primaries, though that smells opportunistic to me), but this probably means that Sa'ar is doing relatively poorly, which is a good result for Bibi all things considered.

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I have some questions that I hope you can help me with. E.g. I'm having trouble understanding the coalition dynamics.

a) What's the significance of Lapid and Gantz running on a joint list?

It would formalize an alliance and make it likelier that they could place ahead of Likud in the election, which should be useful for coalition negotiations. Also, doing this would make it likelier that the narrative of the election is Gantz vs. Netanyahu, mano a mano, which would help Gantz's party and anyone together on their list win more seats even if they do not form the government.

b) Are the ultra-orthodox parties more likely to back a single larger party rather than a coalition of two smaller parties?

Polls have shown that larger parties will tend to take votes from smaller ones, so the creation of large lists should work to minimize the number of parties in the Knesset, making government creation easier. However, Yesh Atid (Lapid's party) is a very secularist outfit, and Gantz has hit some secularist themes as well. The ultra-orthodox parties are unlikely to back Gantz for Prime Minister.

c) How many seats would Gantz & Lapid need to win in order to jointly form a government?

Depends on how many seats Likud wins and what smaller parties make it in. Forced to give a ballpark estimate, I would say "mid-to-high single digits more than Likud", but depending on which smaller parties make it in it might be more or less. Simply coming in first place, assuming a relatively constant assortment of minor parties, is nowhere close to enough, as Tzipi Livni learned in 2009 when she lead Kadima and was the main anti-Netanyahu candidate for Prime Minister.

d) What's the chance Netanyahu won't be indicted by the election? I read that the prosecutor will recommend that he be indicted within the next month, but Netanyahu will be able to drag out the hearing process for months.

The process is very murky, but there have been leaks that figures within Likud and opposition figures have been preparing a response to an indictment, so it seems that the possibility that Netanyahu is indicted is very real.

e) I can't figure out how likely Gantz and Lapid are to ally with the Joint List if it would bring them to 61 seats. Some sources say a coalition with the Arabs is completely unlikely, whereas others consider it a realistic possibility.

A coalition has never been done and would be very unlikely. In the past, the left has done "blocking agreements" with non-nationalist non-religious Arab parties (Hadash, which is a component of the Joint List, and Mada, which no longer exists). Seeking Hadash's support while keeping them outside of the coalition would have precedent (though the 1992-1996 government that did this had much more left-wing leadership than Gantz and Lapid; Avoda+Meretz had 56 seats in those days); it would be unprecedented (and very unlikely) for Balad, Ra'am, or Ta'al. Gantz and Lapid are more right-wing figures than Rabin and might struggle to pick up support even from Hadash in any case.

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Jerusalem Post reports that the top two finishers are likely to be Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein and Housing Minister Yoav Galant, who switched from Kulanu for this election with Netanyahu's blessing and is in the running for Defense Minister. Edelstein isn't a close Bibi ally (Galant has been running as one in these primaries, though that smells opportunistic to me), but this probably means that Sa'ar is doing relatively poorly, which is a good result for Bibi all things considered.

On the other hand, Arutz Sheva has a "top ten so far" published, noting that only 18% has been counted and things could still shift, which concurs that Edelstein is in first but has Sa'ar in second and Galant further off (though still in the top ten). Likud is expected to hit the low thirties in seats and will probably rise in the event of a Gantz v. Netanyahu showdown (but may fall in the event of a Netanyahu indictment). Still, top ten are basically guaranteed spots in the Knesset. So, top ten right now according to Arutz Sheva:

1) Knesset Speaker Yoel Edelstein
2) Former Interior Minister and former MK Gilad Sa'ar (returnee)
3) Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan
4) Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz
5) Culture Minister Miri Regev
6) former Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat (new)
7) Tourism Minister Yariv Levin
Housing Minister Yoav Galant
9) MK, former Public Security Minister Avi Dichter
10) Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Tzipi Hotovely

All apart from Sa'ar and Barkat are incumbents, and Sa'ar is a former long-time Knesset member. Dichter and Hotovely are not ministers, though both are pretty prominent members of the caucus. Both had also struggled to win reasonable spots in the 2015 primaries, so it's interesting that they seem to have done better. It's believed that Galant, Dichter, and MK Anat Berko (who Arutz Sheva is not reporting as a top ten finisher) are under consideration for Defense Minister if Netanyahu is reelected; Arutz Sheva seems to think Galant and Dichter did about equally well. (Interestingly, both are converts to the Likud from more moderate parties -- Dichter from Kadima and Galant from Kulanu).

[Vosem]

Yeah, Arutz Sheva has Neguise at 28th (though probably 30th after Bibi appoints his choice to slots 21 and 28), which isn't a guarantee but is by no means out.

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Shame about Haskel -- I was a fan. As for the Bibi slots, Michael Oren has been speculated about as a possibility; last time, he picked Benny Begin and Anat Berko, neither of whom got reasonable slots (the former didn't even run), so possibly it'll be one of them again. There's been speculation that he'll try to merge with a minor right-wing party by giving them some slots, especially Jewish Home (which might leave Smotrich running independently).

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A recount in the Likud primary has flipped Sa'ar/Erdan (previously fifth and fourth, now fourth and fifth) and Levin/Gallant (previously ninth and eighth, now eighth and ninth). Bibi has also agreed to give up his reserved spot at the 21st to the national list, which bumps (all of these are Class of 2015 freshman MKs) Yoav Kish from 24th to 21st, David Bitan from 25th to 24th, Miki Zohar from 29th to 25th, and gadfly Canadian-immigrant libertarian Sharren Haskel from 37th to 29th. Bibi was lobbied to do this by Bitan and Zohar (who were both already probably in but simply wanted higher slots just in case), but the likely effect of this is that it bumps Haskel from almost certainly not returning to the Knesset to probably coming back.

[Vosem]

A recount in the Likud primary has flipped Sa'ar/Erdan (previously fifth and fourth, now fourth and fifth) and Levin/Gallant (previously ninth and eighth, now eighth and ninth). Bibi has also agreed to give up his reserved spot at the 21st to the national list, which bumps (all of these are Class of 2015 freshman MKs) Yoav Kish from 24th to 21st, David Bitan from 25th to 24th, Miki Zohar from 29th to 25th, and gadfly Canadian-immigrant libertarian Sharren Haskel from 37th to 29th. Bibi was lobbied to do this by Bitan and Zohar (who were both already probably in but simply wanted higher slots just in case), but the likely effect of this is that it bumps Haskel from almost certainly not returning to the Knesset to probably coming back.

As far as I know Netanyahu not using one of his spots bumps the entire list up 1 spot, not just the non reserved ones.

It's actually unclear really, Likud has 3 different rules on this. I'll wait for the official list on the 20th.

anyhow, it just shows how Bibi can be squeezed, backbenchers forcing his hands and he wants the Likud all in the line for the indictment. Lame duck

Another recount took place, according to the Times of Israel, which saw Erdan/Sa'ar flip back (with Erdan apparently having edged out Sa'ar by seven votes), Levin's promotion ahead of Gallant confirmed, but Welfare Minister Haim Katz jumping two slots (finishing ahead of Ofir Akunis and Tzachi Hanegbi), with Yuval Steinitz and Tzipi Hotovely (previously seventeenth and sixteenth) also switching. The constant recounts don't seem like a good look for Likud to me, though I guess this is what happens when you hold a bunch of really close elections simultaneously. In any case, all of these people have been returned to the Knesset unless there's some kind of really broad collapse.

Apparently enough people are lobbying for another recount that it will probably be held. At a certain point there need to be rules against this.

According to the Times of Israel in this article (https://www.timesofisrael.com/pms-rival-saar-up-to-third-in-likud-list-after-primaries-vote-recount/) -- ignore its comments about the results of recounts, which have been superseded by further recounting -- the result of Netanyahu cancelling his reserved spot at the 21st is that the national list members all move up one (it notes specifically that Yoav Kish goes from 24th to 21st), while those who hold reserved spots for youth/minorities/regions all stay where they are.

Notably, apparently two of the regional winners, Pinchas Idan and Eti Attiyah (19th and 23rd on the list from the Shfela and Dan regions), are both union representatives (the former is head of the Israel Airport Authority workers union; the latter is an organizer for the Israel Aerospace Industries union) who are allied to Welfare Minister and long-time MK Haim Katz (himself an ally of Gideon Sa'ar, sometimes painted as a within-party foe of Netanyahu; he started as a representative of the left-wing single-issue pro-union party Am Ehad; he crossed the floor to join Likud in 2003). Bloc voting really works, folks.

Jewish Home and National Union just came to an agreement. The list will be as follows:

1. Rabbi Rafi Peretz
2. Bezalel Smotrich
3. Ofir Sofer
4. Moti Yogev
5. Orit Struk
6. Yifat Erlich
7. Yossi Cohen
8. Rabbi Eli Ben Dahan

Smotrich will get to decide on the first ministerial portfolio in case BY-NU enters the government. If only one BY-NU minister is appointed, there will be a rotation agreement.

Great news, would enthusiastically vote for them. Also happy to see Otzma aren't part of it.

Jewish Home has generally polled significantly better than National Union/Tkuma this year, so a 50:50 spread is a really good result for Smotrich, actually. Might be explained by the fact that Peretz is a "star leader" for Jewish Home rather than someone steeped in the party and so doesn't really care how many seats specifically Jewish Home (rather than religious Zionism as a whole) gets.

[Vosem]

Meretz held its first-ever party primaries today, having previously used a convention system. Party leader MK Tamar Zandberg held the first spot automatically; the remainder of the slots simply go to whoever has the most votes. A fairly diverse list resulted. Following her the following will receive realistic spots:

2. MK Ilan Gilon
3. MK Michal Rozin
4. MK Issawi Frej (represents Arab sector)
~~first 4 spots are pretty safe; all go to incumbents~~
5. education reformer Ali Shalalhah (Druze)
6. reality-show star/Tel Aviv Deputy Mayor Mehereta Baruch-Ron (Ethiopian)
~~more than 6 is unlikely~~
7. MK Mossi Raz
8. Peace Now Director Avi Buskila
~~beyond this is basically impossible~~

There is some speculation that Meretz may form a joint list with Labor, both of whom are above but fairly close to the threshold, but Labor leader Avi Gabbay has voiced opposition to the idea.

[Vosem]

Also, in more minor right-wing party news, disgraced one-term Likud MK Oren Hazan apparently intends to withdraw from his (unrealistic) spot on the Likud list and run as the head of his own party. I doubt that he can cross the threshold (especially given his, er, not great result in the Likud primary), but he's prominent enough to get a lot of media attention and be a thorn in the side of the main right-wing campaign.

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Yesh Atid has revealed the first 30 members of its list, as negotiations of a merger with Hosen seem to have gone poorly, while Gantz continues to negotiate with Orly Levy. Since the start of 2019, all polls that have Yesh Atid running independently have gotten them at least 9 seats, while the absolute maximum they've hit has been 17. They are at an average of about 12. Here are the top 17 candidates:

1. Party leader, former Finance Minister, MK Yair Lapid
2. Former Welfare Minister, MK Meir Cohen
3. MK Ofer Shelah
4. first female major-general Orna Barbivai (new star candidate)
5. Former Health Minister, MK Yael German
6. MK Karin Elharar
7. MK Yoel Razvozov
8. MK Mickey Levy
9. MK Elazar Stern
^^above this is basically certain
10. MK Pnina Tamano-Shata
11. former Shin Bet deputy director Ram Ben-Barak (new candidate)
12. former Israeli Police anti-fraud unit head Yoav Segalovich (new candidate)
^^above this is likely
13. Former MK Boaz Toporovsky
14. attorney/LGBT rights activist Idan Roll
15. Yesh Atid youth wing head Yorai Lahav-Hertzanu
16. MK Aliza Lavie
17. journalist Tehila Friedman-Nachalon
^^above this is possible

Below 17 is a bunch of obscure figures who are not very likely to reach the Knesset.

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Meanwhile, Gabbai has been rejected by star candidates he's trying to appoint to his slots on the Labor list, including popular Beersheba Mayor Ruvik Danilovich and retiring Yesh Atid MK Haim Yellin.

Tzipi Livni has announced that she will not be running in the upcoming elections. She would've been a pretty logical choice for Gabbai to appoint to one of his guaranteed slots but, whoops, looks like that's not a possibility.

Oren Hazan will be calling his party Tzomet, which was the name of a party run by right-wing general Rafael Eitan from 1987-1999. (Amusingly, it was because of Tzomet's anomalously high performance in 1992 bringing total nobodies into the Knesset that the Oslo Accords passed in the first place, so the party had arguably had a more significant role in Israeli history than most of its type). Remains to be seen whether he can recruit Gonen Segev (a member of the original Tzomet who became Energy Minister and whose efforts passed the Oslo Accords, who went on to smuggle thousands of ecstasy tablets into Israel and spy for Iran) to run with him.

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I wanted to note that if the 1988 Elections Act were actually enforced Otzma would probably be banned in the first place, though upon considering it I realized that several of the Arab parties would be banned as well (Balad and Ra'am would probably have gone down during the 2003 legal challenge), which could've fairly radically remade Israeli democracy; a state where Arabs still voted for the left is one where the left could still win.

How desirable the 1988 Elections Act (which banned parties that denied Israel's "Jewish and democratic" character -- intending to target Kach, an antecedent of Otzma, which was indeed banned, and the Progressive List for Peace, the banning of which was overturned by the Israeli Supreme Court) was is arguable: many countries ban anti-system parties, but Israel has a fairly high percentage of the population adhering to anti-system views, so it could be said that it is undemocratic not to allow them to have some representation. (It may also be that the banning of Arab anti-system parties is difficult to maintain while having good foreign relations with certain states, and of course allowing these parties is advantageous for the right-wing Jewish parties.) An interesting point to consider.

[Vosem]

Why couldn't the Arabs launch new parties if their parties were banned? Canada elected a communist under the "Labour-Progressive" ticket while the Communist Party was banned for example.

The 1988 Elections Act banned all parties that didn't recognize Israel as "Jewish and democratic" -- thus it was targeted at Kach (the ancestor of Otzma), which denied Israel's democratic nature, and the Progressive List for Peace, which denied Israel's Jewish nature. The Supreme Court overturned the ban on the latter, and since then no parties have been banned (apart from a nearly-immediate refoundation of Kach called Kahane Chai. In 2003, a challenge was brought to Balad and Ra'am running on the basis of their pretty clear positions not recognizing Israel's Jewish nature, but ultimately the Supreme Court ruled that they were in fact allowed to run. (A prior version of Otzma, called Eretz Israel Shelanu, became part of the National Union alliance in 2009 and in fact held a seat in the 2009-2013 Knesset).

You would just keep banning party refoundations, in this instance.

Also, the list of 30 initial candidates of Hosen has been published by Gantz, though he is apparently still negotiating a merger with Orly Levy's Gesher party, and so the final list may differ in some respects. Nearly everyone on the current list would be a newcomer to the Knesset, except for Moshe Ya'alon (#2, former Likud MK and Defense Minister) and Moshe Matalon (at #23, and a former Yisrael Beiteinu MK). Several of the top ten are explicit dissidents from Likud, including Bibi staffers, though at #3 he has Avi Nissenkorn (former head of the Histadrut, or general labor organization) and at #6 Yeruham Mayor Michael Biton, both of whom have been associated with the left in the past.

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Gesher has announced that they will definitely run independently, with Levy slamming Gantz as "hallucinatory". Her list has been announced, and features nobody with any history of Knesset service besides Levy herself.

1. MK Orly Levy
2. law professor Yifat Biton
3. former Housing Ministry director-general Hagai Reznik
4. former Intel VP David Perlmutter
^^above this is possible
5. geneticist Liat Yakir
6. former diplomat Dan Shaham
^^below this is very unlikely
7. educator Hagai Lavi
8. former Ra'anana Municipality director Michal Hirsch-Negri
9. former Social Equality Ministry director-general Gilad Samama
10. social activist Carmel Elmakayes

Single-issue pro-marijuana legalization party Ale Yarok has announced they will sit the election out, and call on their voters to support other parties that support marijuana legalization (weirdly enough, Zehut and Meretz are the ones that explicitly call for it).

It looks like JH/NU will merge with Otzma, with Otzma receiving the fifth and eighth spots on the list in exchange. The fifth spot will go to Otzma leader, former National Union MK Michael Ben-Ari; the eighth spot may go to someone other than the second person on their list, attorney Itamar Ben-Gvir, who JH/NU don't want to allow on their list. Because Netanyahu pushed for the merger, he also agreed to allow JH leader Rafi Peretz to choose who Netanyahu will put in the 28th spot on the Likud list (which is very likely election).

Gabbay has announced his nominations for the 2nd (very likely) and 10th (unlikely, but possible) slots on the Labor list; the 2nd slot will go to general Tal Russo, and the 10th will go to Yesh Atid MK Haim Yellin.

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Labour, Meretz are petitioning the Election Commission led by High Court Justice Melcer to ban Otzma from taking part in the election. The reason would be that Michael Ben-Ari, who is at #5 on the URWP list, was a co-founder of Rabbi Meir Kahane's Jewish Idea yeshiva. If this happens, which I doubt, it would prove that the country's institutions moved to the left, given that Ben-Ari was in the Knesset from 2009-13 already.

Not really, given that I don't think a challenge to Ben-Ari's candidacy was presented at that time; the man himself and his party were much more obscure.

Also, I mean, Kahane himself was banned from standing when he was literally an incumbent MK.

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In some late-breaking list action, Pinchas Idan, the former head of the Israel Airports Authority union, who won 19th spot on the Likud slate and was a close ally of Welfare Minister MK Haim Katz, was disqualified by the Supreme Court today for having held a state job too recently. It's too late to replace him in his slot, which was one of the ones reserved for regional candidates, so everybody at the 20th spot and up gets to move up one spot. Likud is currently polling at an average of 29 seats in the Knesset Jeremy average, so this move works to replace Idan with Michal Shir (an ally of Gideon Saar and representative of the Tel Aviv region).

[Vosem]

In some late-breaking list action, Pinchas Idan, the former head of the Israel Airports Authority union, who won 19th spot on the Likud slate and was a close ally of Welfare Minister MK Haim Katz, was disqualified by the Supreme Court today for having held a state job too recently. It's too late to replace him in his slot, which was one of the ones reserved for regional candidates, so everybody at the 20th spot and up gets to move up one spot. Likud is currently polling at an average of 29 seats in the Knesset Jeremy average, so this move works to replace Idan with Michal Shir (an ally of Gideon Saar and representative of the Tel Aviv region).

On this note, because the lists are set, disqualifying a candidate just bumps everyone who's below them on the list up a level, right? So if Ben-Ari is disqualified even as the remainder of the Otzma representatives are allowed to run, Ben-Gvir would be bumped to 7th on their list, not 5th -- which isn't impossible, but is a fairly tall order. It would mean Otzma is likelier not to be represented than to be represented in the next Knesset.

Edit: I do enjoy that Netanyahu's last-minute efforts to unite small right-wing parties seem to have totally failed; in the Kan poll released today, there are no less than seven right-wing parties who have a level of support between 2% and 5% (note the threshold is at 3.25%): from top to bottom, Shas, Kulanu, the United Right, the New Right, Zehut, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Gesher all fit into this category. Bad luck with the threshold for the right looks like the only way for Blue & White to plausibly form a government without Likud; would be deeply amusing if this is the ultimate result of Lieberman's Law.

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The following parties have submitted voter transfer agreements:

Likud--United Right
Labor--Meretz
United Torah Judaism--Shas
New Right--Yisrael Beiteinu

I'm not sure when the deadline to submit these is; apparently Hadash-Ta'al--Ra'am-Balad will be submitted after the Supreme Court (very likely) unbans Ra'am-Balad. Of the parties with a chance to enter the Knesset, either Blue & White or Kulanu may sign an agreement with Gesher (or perhaps neither), but Zehut will be left high and dry.

These agreements mostly parallel the ones from 2015, when four agreements were concluded: Likud--Jewish Home, Zionist Union--Meretz, UTJ--Shas, and Yisrael Beiteinu--Kulanu. Bennett's addition of an extra right-wing party to the mix seems to have sort of screwed over Kahlon.

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Well, if Ben-Ari is disqualified, everybody below him on the URWP list moves up a spot, so Ben-Gvir moves from eighth to seventh, which at present numbers is quite reasonable. Knesset Jeremy's last average has:

32 Blue & White
29 Likud
9 Labor
7 Hadash-Ta'al
7 United Torah Judaism
7 United Right List
6 Meretz
6 New Right
5 Shas
4 Zehut
4 Kulanu
4 Yisrael Beiteinu

On these numbers Otzma's representation in the Knesset stays at one -- it just moves from Ben-Ari to Ben-Gvir.

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Are the Exit polls in Israel generally accurate?

They were good in 2013. In 2015 the polling average had overestimated minor right-wing parties at the expense of Likud -- exit polls were pretty much midway between the polling average and the actual result. They're not necessarily great, but I think they're usually a stronger indicator of what's going on than the normal polls.

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Average of exit polls from Haaretz.

BTW, in case it isn't obvious, Gantz and Bibi have both claimed victory.

Wait ... if you add up the seats in this picture you only get to 117 seats...

One more party gets in in all the exit polls, but on average they don't cross the threshold, so the average is at less than 120.

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Also, how have Shas seemingly come back from the dead?

Shas has a very high ceiling, so it's quite possible that polls showing them flirting with the threshold would've flipped some past Shas voters back to them, especially from Likud (though Likud also did well, so...eh).