Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[Oryxslayer]

Latest returns mapped

[Polkergeist]

Overall the unofficial leaders I tally from Myundi are

BN   41   (-8)
PH   35   (5)
GS   3   (0)
OTH   6   (3)

Jachind is right, a lot hangs on what happens to the PAS vote

[jaichind]

Some Johor results came in ...

BN 22 PH 27 Pro-PH Ind 1

[Oryxslayer]

Have to go to a final, will return in 1-2hrs. Keep the fire warm.

[Polkergeist]

I have BN trailing in 11 seats (net) where they are the incumbents according to Myundi unofficial results. Less than half the seats a reporting.

If BN lose 21 seats (net) BN lose their majority

[Polkergeist]

PH not doing badly in Johor in unofficial returns

Seats Leading
PH 7
BN 6
Not yet reporting 13

[jaichind]

BN 29 PH 29 Pro-PH Ind 1  !!!

[jaichind]

PH not doing badly in Johor in unofficial returns

Seats Leading
PH 7
BN 6
Not yet reporting 13

Not good enough for PH.  For PH to hold BN below majority PH has to win a majority of the Johor seats, with some margin.

[Polkergeist]

Unofficial Langkawi P004   

DR MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD (PH)   5230   
IR. NAWAWI BIN AHMAD (BN)   2612   
ZUBIR BIN AHMAD (GS)   1041   

Apologies for caps

[jaichind]

BN 33 PH 30 PAS 1 Pro-PH Ind 1

First seat called for PAS which is in Terengganu which makes sense.  I think if PAS was going to do well somewhere it will be Terengganu.  PAS is facing significant anti-incumbency in Kelantan.

[jaichind]

Early results from Kedah seems fairly negative for BN and positive for PH and to some extend PAS.  It seems rumors of a PH and PAS surge is true.  BN did very well in Kedah in 2013. Obviously Mahathir is a large factor here.

[jaichind]

MCA and Gerkan (BN Chinese parties) Presidents both lost.

[Polkergeist]

Overall the unofficial leaders I tally from Myundi are;

BN   41   (-15)
PH   42  (9)
GS   6   (1)
OTH   8   (5)

125 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

[jaichind]

Overall the unofficial leaders I tally from Myundi are;

BN   41   (-15)
PH   42  (9)
GS   6   (1)
OTH   8   (5)

125 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

I assume OTH 8 is WARISAN and pro-PH independent

[jaichind]

BN 42 PH 36 PAS 1 Pro-PH Ind 1

Total silence from  Sabah and Kedah.

Other than Sabah I would say the remaining seats will tend to lean PH on average.

[Polkergeist]

Overall the unofficial leaders I tally from Myundi are;

BN   41   (-15)
PH   42  (9)
GS   6   (1)
OTH   8   (5)

125 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

I assume OTH 8 is WARISAN and pro-PH independent

Yes

[jaichind]

BN seems to have beaten back the PAS storm Terengganu.  Out of the 8 seats it is BN 5 PAS 1 so far.

[Novelty]

How are the results when compared to your model @jaichind?

[jaichind]

BN 46 PH 39 PAS 2 Pro-PH Ind 1

[jaichind]

How are the results when compared to your model @jaichind?

In Peninsular Malaysia par for PH, slight over performance for BN and under performance for PAS.

In Borneo clearly PH over-performing to my model but we have very few calls in Sabah but what is there now is better for PH than my model.

[Polkergeist]

PH improving its position in Johor in unofficial returns


Seats Leading
PH 9
BN 6
Not yet reporting 11

[Novelty]

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Part of the KKT, but not Kelantan

[jaichind]

I would be very nervous right now if I were Razak.  Even if BN pulls out a majority he lost a bunch of seats and UNMO will most likely dump him as leader.

[Novelty]

I would be very nervous right now if I were Razak.  Even if BN pulls out a majority he lost a bunch of seats and UNMO will most likely dump him as leader.

Reports indicate people might coalesce behind him to prevent the party falling apart.  He is after all royalty

[Polkergeist]

Based on the unofficial leaders on both myundi websites linked earlier in the thread I get the following;

BN  64  (-19)
PH   59  (17)
GS   7   (0)
OTH   6  (2)

88 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets