Four years from today, who will be.....?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'm probably going to me just as wrong as I was in 2013, but I'll give it a go.

United States: Kamala Harris, who will be running against a DeSantis/Hawley ticket in 2024.
United Kingdom: Depends when the GE is, but probably BoJo.
France: I have no idea.
Canada: A Liberal not named Trudeau.

Out of curiosity, do you foresee a DeSantis/Hawley ticket as a MAGA tripling-down, or as DeSantis running as a somewhat more Generic R and then bringing Hawley in to nail down the Trump diehard lane?

I think it’d be somewhere in the middle.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm probably going to me just as wrong as I was in 2013, but I'll give it a go.

United States: Kamala Harris, who will be running against a DeSantis/Hawley ticket in 2024.
United Kingdom: Depends when the GE is, but probably BoJo.
France: I have no idea.
Canada: A Liberal not named Trudeau.

By law there has to be a general election by the end of 2024 in the UK. Whenever it is and whatever the result, I have made clear my view on the likelihood of the present PM still being there upthread.

[thumb21]

PM of the UK: Corbyn (Labour)
President of the US: Warren (Democratic)
Chancellor of Germany: Merkel or maybe someone else in the CDU
President of France: Macron (REM)
PM of Canada: Scheer (Conservative)
PM of Greece: Mitsotakis (ND)
President of Cyprus: Papadopoulos (DIKO)
PM of Spain: Rajoy (PP)

Might as well cross off the ones that won't happen. Awful prediction 

[CumbrianLefty]

Not to worry, just shows that four years is an even "longer" period than usual right now.

[TheTide]

These things are a bit like the stock market. It's usually better not to go for whatever is trending at the present moment.

[CumbrianLefty]

These things are a bit like the stock market. It's usually better not to go for whatever is trending at the present moment.

There is a fair amount of truth in this, "conventional wisdom" is wrong an awful lot of the time.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Well, no one posted predictions in this thread in 2018.  So we don’t know if anyone would have gotten Scholz or Albanese during that time.  However, we do have two predictions from September 2019 that predicted Albanese:

Updating, holy hell I was off on some of these back in 2017 haha

...president of the United States? who knows honestly
...chancellor of Germany? AKK probably
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Gove
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Albanese

...president of the United States? Biden
...chancellor of Germany? AKK
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Swinson
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Albanese

[MABA 2020]

So four years from now is May 2026?

...president of the United States? Trump (hope this is wrong)
...chancellor of Germany? Scholz
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Starmer
...prime minister of Canada? Some Liberal, not Trudeau (Don't know enough about Canadian politics to be more specific)
...prime minister of Australia? Not Albanese (Again not an expert in Australian politics, but their PM's don't seem to last very long)

[Lord Halifax]

...president of the United States? Ronald Dion DeSantis, Esq.
...chancellor of Germany? Herr Marcus Thomas Theodor Söder
...president of France? Monsieuer Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Sir Keir Rodney Starmer
...prime minister of Canada? Ms. Christina Alexandra Freeland
...prime minister of Australia? Albo

[CumbrianLefty]

*bump*

Well, no one posted predictions in this thread in 2018.  So we don’t know if anyone would have gotten Scholz or Albanese during that time.  However, we do have two predictions from September 2019 that predicted Albanese:

...president of the United States? Biden
...chancellor of Germany? AKK
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Swinson
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Albanese

Look who that one had as the UK premier, though

[morgieb]

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Nicolas Sarkozy
...prime minister of the UK? Angela Eagle
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten (despite me thinking Malcolm wins tomorrow)

A few bolters, but meh.

So I think I got 2/6. Ooooof.

Now let's try 2026:

US: Trump
Germany: Spahn
France: Macron (I know, bold call)
UK: Starmer
Canada: Trudeau
Australia: Albanese

[NewYorkExpress]

Well, I was badly wrong.

2026:

Australia: I'll say it's still Albanese
United Kingdom: Rishi Sunak
France:Emmanuel Macron (as the 2027 Election hasn't happened yet)
Canada: Still Justin Trudeau
United States: Kamala Harris

[brucejoel99]

...president of the United States? Mike Pence (succeeded to the Presidency following the July 2019 resignation of Donald Trump; defeated the Democratic challenger, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, in the 2020 presidential election)

...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel (has already announced she wouldn't seek re-election to a 5th term)

...president of France? Emmanuel Macron (hovering around 40% approvals, & climbing; expected to run for re-election in 2022 (& defeat most candidates in 2nd-round hypotheticals))

...prime minister of the UK? Theresa May (not yet gone but behind Yvette Cooper's Labour in the polls prior to the expected May 2022 general election)

...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau (headed for a third majority in 2023)

...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten (Labor's 2019 victory had mirrored the Coalition's 2016 narrow margin victory with 76 seats & the Liberal Party again switched leaders: back to Tony Abbott, who in 2021 is expected to (again) defeat Labor at the 2022 election)

Well, I don't see Merkel, Macron, or Trudeau being forced out-of-office sometime in the next 4 months, so 3 out of 6 ain't bad! (Not to mention, the specific predictions for both Merkel & Macron appear to have been spot-on!) Thank god my American prediction ended up being hilariously incorrect, but RIP the hopes for PM Shorten & an incoming PM Yvette Cooper

Here goes nothing for January 2, 2025:

...president of the United States? Joe Biden (preparing for his imminent 2nd term)

...chancellor of Germany? Markus Söder (Armin Laschet was elected CDU chair, but Söder was chosen to be the CDU/CSU Chancellor-candidate & went on to form the expected Black-Green coalition, though bumpier-than-expected coalition talks mean they're not able to take office 'til Jan. 2022, allowing Merkel to surpass Kohl & become the longest-serving post-war Chancellor in Dec. 2021.)

...president of France? Emmanuel Macron

...prime minister of the UK? Keir Starmer (2024 sees the Tories & Labour end up neck-&-neck in terms of seats (~285 each), & Starmer forms a minority coalition government with the Lib Dems in exchange for electoral reform, supported by a confidence-&-supply deal with the SNP in exchange for IndyRef2.)

...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau (Liberals won a majority in the spring of 2022)

...prime minister of Australia? Anthony Albanese (2022 sees Labor win 73 seats to the Coalition's 72, & Albanese forms a minority government with the support of the Greens MP & 2 crossbenchers.)

Not terrible so far...

[OSR stands with Israel]

President of The United States: Sherrod Brown
Prime Minister of UK: Theresa May
Prime Minister of Canada:Andrew Scheer
President of France: Emmanuel Marcon

Lol Was very wrong. Anyway this is what I think for May 2026


President of the United States: Ron DeSantis

Prime Minister of UK: Keir Starmer(2024 ends with a narrow minority Tory Gov which falls a year later and Starmer wins)

Prime Minister of Canada: Pierre Poilievre

President of France: Emmanuel Macron

[Utah Neolib]

May 29, 2026:

President of the United States: Joseph Robinette Biden (Defeated Ronald DeSantis, 292-246)

Prime Minister of UK: Boris Johnson

Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau

President of France: Emmanuel Macron

Chancellor of Germany: Olaf Scholz

Prime Minister of Australia: Anthony Albanese

[Isaak]

Guess for May 2026:

Germany - Guenther
USA - DeSantis
UK - Johnson
France - Macron

Edit:

Russia - Putin, unfortunately.

[Continential]

America - Trump
United Kingdom - Starmer
Canada - Poilievre
France - Macron
Germany - Merz
Australia - Albanese

[S019]

...president of the United States: Joe Biden
...chancellor of Germany: Friedrich Merz
...president of France: Emmanuel Macron
...prime minister of the UK: Keir Starmer
...prime minister of Canada: Chrystia Freeland
...prime minister of Australia: Anthony Albanese

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, I was badly wrong.

2026:

Australia: I'll say it's still Albanese
United Kingdom: Rishi Sunak
France:Emmanuel Macron (as the 2027 Election hasn't happened yet)
Canada: Still Justin Trudeau
United States: Kamala Harris

LOL, been in a coma this year have we?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

USA: Trump again
UK: Starmer
France: Édouard Philippe (cheating here by going for five years from now rather than four, but otherwise what's the point)
Germany: still Scholz
Canada: Poilievre
Australia: still Albanese

[CumbrianLefty]

Those all look reasonably plausible right now.

As far as the UK in 2026 is concerned, if we assume there is a change of government then quite a big factor is how the Tories react to losing office. Quite possibly not that well, given current indications.