2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Sürth is right between the really rich people and the Shell refinery... (which occupies a huge expanse in Godorf, the next place upriver. Although some of that terrain lies unused)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just checked and the Greens got just under 15% there in the last federal election, 25% in the European election earlier this year and 13% in the last state election.

[Hans-im-Glück]

New Poll from Infratest dimap for German TV (ARD), compared to last week

CDU/CSU   35 %  (nc)
SPD   23 %   (nc)
GREEN   12 %  (-1)
FDP   14 %  (nc)
LEFT    12 %  (+1)

Black/Yellow   49
Red/Red/Green   47

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a pretty strong correlation between SPD and pro-Koln, isn't there?

Probably another case of

It's a class issue, for the most part.

[Tender Branson]

Latest FGW federal poll:

CDU/CSU: 36%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 14%
Greens: 11%
Left: 11%

CDU/CSU/FDP: 50%
SPD/Greens/Left: 45%

New Infratest-dimap Schleswig-Holstein state elections poll:

CDU: 33% (-7)
SPD: 24% (-15)
FDP: 15% (+8)
Greens: 12% (+6)
Left: 8% (+7)
SSW: 4% (nc)
Others: 4% (+1)

CDU/FDP: 48%
SPD/Greens/Left/SSW: 48%

Federal voting intentions of Schleswig-Holstein voters, according to Infratest-dimap:

CDU: 38% (+2)
SPD: 26% (-12)
FDP: 13% (+3)
Greens: 12% (+4)
Left: 8% (+3)
Others: 3% (nc)

CDU/FDP: 51% (+5)
SPD/Greens/Left: 46% (-5)

Federal voting intentions of Berlin voters, according to Infratest-dimap:

CDU: 25% (+3)
SPD: 21% (-13)
Greens: 19% (+5)
Left: 17% (+1)
FDP: 11% (+3)
Pirates: 3% (+3)
Others: 4% (-2)

SPD/Greens/Left: 57% (-7)
CDU/FDP: 36% (+6)

[Tender Branson]

Election TV debate last chance for sparks

Chancellor Angela Merkel will square off with her rival for power, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, on Sunday in a televised debate widely seen as his last chance to close a double-digit gap on the popular German leader.

With only two weeks to go until some 62 million people go to the polls to elect a leader for Europe's most populous country, the showdown could yet spice up an election campaign that has so far failed to spark enthusiasm.



Although Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) are flying high in the polls, a recent survey suggested the debate, only the fourth of its kind in Germany, could yet prove critical to the outcome of the September 27 election.

According to a poll by the Forsa institute, over half of German voters (56 percent) said the debate would have at least some influence on how they would vote, with 42 percent saying it would have no impact on their decision.

And with organisers hoping that at least 21 million people will tune in at 8:30 pm on Sunday, there are still plenty of undecided voters up for grabs.

However, Steinmeier, vice-chancellor and foreign minister in Germany's uneasy grand coalition, has a vast amount of ground to close, with a recent poll putting his Social Democrats on 23 percent, far behind Merkel's conservatives on 36 percent.

One of the moderators, RTL television news chief Peter Kloeppel, said he hoped the debate would finally ignite what has been an uninspiring campaign.

"We can try to pour some oil onto the fire but they will both have to play their part. We can only hope they want to, we cannot order them to," he told the daily Nürnberger Zeitung.

"It's a duel, not a wild shootout," he added.

Both candidates have shied away from direct confrontation, finding it difficult to attack each other's record as they have been coalition partners for the past four years.

It was also reported at the weekend by news magazine Der Spiegel that Merkel would not take part in another televised debate which was planned to include all the parties' top candidates.

Producers of the ZDF show have been trying to agree a date with Merkel since March, they said on Friday, but without success. They have eventually decided for September 16, at 11 am - when Merkel allegedly has no official engagements.

Having pondered keeping her chair but leaving it empty, the broadcaster instead accepted the offer of Lower Saxony Minister President Christian Wulff.

Steinmeier recently tried to draw Merkel out of her defensive shell, taunting her by saying, "Simply posing on red carpets - that is not enough in the long run."

But Merkel has deflected all such attacks, insisting: "I'm not going to become more aggressive but put my arguments in the foreground."

Speaking about the debate, however, Steinmeier told the Ausburger Allegemeine newspaper, "The TV debate is not about our fighting styles," but rather the substance of the arguments.

But Claus Leggewie from the Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities in the western city of Essen warned that few sparks were likely to fly.

“Here come two people from the same government and tell us how it all went - not very exciting," he told the WAZ daily.

Spectators hoping for fireworks from the pair may yet be disappointed as both are seen as safe pairs of hands and cautious personalities.

A recent debate in the parliament on Afghanistan and the state of the country produced nothing in the way of direct conflict between the two.

Polls after the television debate before the last election in 2005 showed then incumbent Gerhard Schröder - dubbed the "media chancellor" for his telegenic style - trounced Merkel but failed to gain a boost as she beat expectations in the actual election.

But after four years of seeing their assured chancellor performing effectively on the world stage, expectations are higher this time around for Merkel's performance.

Nearly two-thirds of Germans (64 percent) believe Merkel will "win" Sunday's debate, compared to only 15 percent who think Steinmeier will triumph, according to a poll for ARD public television.

Germans turned off by the lacklustre political debate in their country at least have a choice.

Although the debate is being carried live on six main channels in Germany, a rival channel is showing "The Simpsons - The Movie" at the same time and is running a nationwide publicity campaign with ads saying "Vote Simpsons."

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20090912-21875.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

“Here come two people from the same government and tell us how it all went - not very exciting," he told the WAZ daily.

Yeah, politicians from FDP, Greens and Left Party have also complained that no opposition candidates are invited to this debate between the Chancellor and her vice chancellor.

[Hans-im-Glück]

I don't think that i watch the debate between Merkel and Steinmeier. Both are poor speakers and bad campaigner. Schroeder 2005 had at least an entertaining value. I'd rather look at the Simpson movie, because then i can a little bit laugh. When i think about Merkel and Steinmeier, I could only cry.

[Tender Branson]

Eastern Germany poll by the Institut für Marktforschung Leipzig:

CDU: 30%
Left: 26%
SPD: 19%
FDP: 11%
Greens: 8%
Nazis: 3%
Others: 3%

Merkel (CDU): 72%
Steinmeier (SPD): 28%

[minionofmidas]

I don't think that i watch the debate between Merkel and Steinmeier. Both are poor speakers and bad campaigner. Schroeder 2005 had at least an entertaining value. I'd rather look at the Simpson movie, because then i can a little bit laugh. When i think about Merkel and Steinmeier, I could only cry.

I won't wath either. I'll be wathing a Japanese indie film that's showing for just one week instead.

[Tender Branson]

A few hours before the debate with Merkel, Steinmeier is out with a 10-point plan to abandon Afghanistan by 2013:

Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has released a ten-point plan to take Germany’s troops out of Afghanistan, setting what has been described as the surprisingly optimistic target of 2013 for the end of German operations there.

His ministry released the two-page paper with his permission, according to Der Spiegel magazine on Sunday, outlining the closure of the first army base by 2011 – to replaced by 1,500 new policemen in the Kunduz region.

“In the next legislature period it is about establishing the foundations for withdrawal from Afghanistan,” the paper says. “We have to set the course now.”

Steinmeier’s plan was released just hours before he was due to face Chancellor Angela Merkel in a televised debate on Sunday evening.

He is the chancellor candidate for the Social Democratic Union (SPD) for the national election on September 27, as well as Foreign Minister.

The release is likely to awake suspicions that he is looking for a quick political boost, particularly after it was confirmed that Sunday is the only time Merkel will take part in such a debate.

Steinmeier’s plan says that future reconstruction efforts would require “concrete, binding aims and at the same time effective precautions to monitor their implementation.”

The next conference on Afghanistan, which Merkel wants to schedule for later in the year, must come up with more specific decisions and no longer “be satisfied with vague targets,” the paper says.

The focus should be on building up the Afghan police force so that all 122 districts controlled by Germany in the north of the country have a sufficiently trained police force by 2011, the paper goes on.

In Kunduz, a particularly problematic area, this would mean a further 1,500 police officers.

The first step of the German withdrawal has not only been given a time limit, but also a location – the 500 German soldiers currently on duty in Faizabad will be sent home by 2011 and their base turned into a training centre for security forces and local administration.

Steinmeier’s former boss, ex-chancellor Gerhard Schröder, sparked discussion over a potential German withdrawal date early this month, receiving heavy criticism for saying that German troops should be home by 2015 at the latest.

Steinmeier himself rejected Schröder’s suggestion, saying he did not want to set a specific date for German withdrawal. He also said that Schröder's time-frame was too short. Both Steinmeier and party leader Franz Müntefering said the idea of setting a date would be counterproductive on the ground.

But last week German operations in Afghanistan came under heavy international criticism after a German officer called in an airstrike on hijacked petrol tankers which may have resulted in the deaths of many civilians. NATO is currently investigating the incident.

http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090913-21895.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, polls and analysts are saying that Steinmeier exceeded expectations. Overall, it is seen as either a tie or a very narrow Steinmeier win.

Haven't seen the debate myself either, only the post-debate coverage.

[Tender Branson]

I saw all of the debate and Steinmeier did quite well with explaining his positions in the beginning. Overall he came over as more relaxed and statesmanlike than I would have thought, while Merkel was more restrained and nervous and was constantly interrupted by one of the 4 moderators, while explaining her positions.

Steinmeier also scored well with the base when he said "Why can a company fire a long time employee, just because she took bread out of the show box (or something like this), while a banker who set millions in the sand gets bonuses of millions and isn't even kicked out of the company ?" Or "why can the government close every dirty unhygenic bar, but not an incompetent bank ?"

That goes over well with the base, and all polls showed that Steinmeier achieved the consolidation of "weak SPD-voters", who were slightly moving to the Left prior to the debate. Steinmeier did also score with abandoning atomic energy by 2020. He said that people were against atomic energy prior to the agreement to end atomic energy by 2020 and that Merkel felt safe after the agreement, when polls showed opinion more even, but once the accidents took place in the plants, opposition rose again. Now 2/3 of Germans are opposed to nuclear energy again.

On the other hand Merkel was quite strong when it comes to health care, but you could have put up a circus monkey next to Steinmeier and he would have had a better time than the Vice-Chancellor, because of the Ulla Schmidt-baggage. I think Steinmeier did also a better job in portraying Black-Yellow as the bigger "Schreckgespenst" than Red-Red-Green.

All in all, Steinmeier beat Merkel by 3 & 1 points in 2 polls by ARD and ZDF, which is good because ahead of the debate Merkel was expected to win with 2/3 of the votes.

Also interesting is the question: Who would you like more as Chancellor ?

Before the debate: Merkel 64%, Steinmeier 29%
After the debate: Merkel 55%, Steinmeier 38%

and "Who was better ?" among undecided debate watchers:

Steinmeier: 34%
Merkel: 18%

Let`s see if the SPD can gain in the final 2 weeks, but Steinmeier certainly did his part. So I guess CDU/CSU 32/33% vs. SPD at 25% might be possible and that Black-Yellow will finally fail at the polling booth.

[Tender Branson]

For those who want to watch the full 90-minute debate:
 
(Part 1)

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video567234.html

(Part 2)

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video567236.html

(Part 3):

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video567276.html

[Franzl]

So I guess CDU/CSU 32/33% vs. SPD at 25% might be possible and that Black-Yellow will finally fail at the polling booth.

finally? The German electorate always chickens out at the last minute, it always fails.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So I guess CDU/CSU 32/33% vs. SPD at 25% might be possible and that Black-Yellow will finally fail at the polling booth.

finally? The German electorate always chickens out at the last minute, it always fails.

That CDU and FDP ultimately fail to convince the voters isn't the voters' fault.

[minionofmidas]

So I guess CDU/CSU 32/33% vs. SPD at 25% might be possible and that Black-Yellow will finally fail at the polling booth.

finally? The German electorate always chickens out at the last minute, it always fails.

That CDU and FDP ultimately fail to convince the voters isn't the voters' fault.

Yes it is. Or rather, that it appears thus is the voters' (and the SPD's) fault. It's my ole theory again: The CDU has absolutely nothing to gain from increased turnout. In roughly the 60 or 65 to 85 percent range, that is. If it drops below that, all sorts of elderly CDU voters have probably stayed at home too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Channel Four news (in a rare bit of coverage of these elections from the British media) mentioned something about a plane not crashing or something.

[minionofmidas]

Huh? What?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My reaction as well. Only caught the end of it.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Channel Four news (in a rare bit of coverage of these elections from the British media) mentioned something about a plane not crashing or something.

A plane must make a emergency landing in Stuttgart. On the board was Franz Müntefering, the SPD chairman. Nobody was injured.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,648928,00.html

[Tender Branson]

BTW: "Only" 14.2 Mio. people have watched the debate.

[Хahar 🤔]

85 percent turnout? Is that a joke?

[Franzl]

85 percent turnout? Is that a joke?

It's certainly not likely, but turnout was at slightly under 80%, IIRC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout tends to be higher in countries not polluted by Murdoch trash