FL-Monmouth: TRUMP with modest lead

[Ronnie]

That's not a bad poll for Rubio.

It's not a particularly good one either.  Only 19% is undecided or has a slight preference.

[Ronnie]

Oh, I just noticed something.  The poll includes 83 independent voters, but they can't vote in the actual primary because it's closed.  That could mean that the race is closer than Monmouth projects, assuming indies tilt toward Trump.

[Ronnie]

Yeah.....Rubio is most likely gonna win here, it's expected that 1/5th to around 40% are expected to early vote, and Rubio is dominating with them. And Rubio tends to get late deciders as well, most Cruz supporters I speak to here are tactically voting for Rubio as well.

I agree that Rubio has a good shot at winning, but I find it hard to believe that he's dominating amongst early voters, since, if I'm not mistaken, the bulk of early voting happened before Romney's speech and Trump's embarrassing debate performance.  Keep in mind that the sample of early votes in that poll is just 72 people.