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Can Dole win back Vermont in 1996?

PurpleHeartRepublican (R-PA): I think it's clear that Vermont voting for the Southerner Clinton over good Northeastern Republican George H.W. Bush was a fluke. Polling this year is oversampling Democrats. Dole will win back Vermont by a few points.

BackToTheFarm (R-NE): I have a good feeling about Republicans this election cycle, I think people will look past Gingrich and keep in mind Clinton's womanizing. He's just a hick who got elected President, like Carter. Stories like Jennifer Flowers and Whitewater are definitely going to sink Democrats in some places and I feel that Olympia Snowe can win on a low-tax message and pull Dole over the top perhaps even in Maine. Suburban women who put Rs on the top in 1994 will pull the lever again for Republicans in 1996. Soccer moms! Anyway, Deep South Democrats don't get re-elected President, didn't we learn anything from 1980?

WeGotDiamonds (D-AR): I look forward to you underestimating our commander in chief! He'll crush Dole in November! Call him a hick all you want. As a hick I am proud of Willy and he'll win the key swing states in November.

PurpleHeartRepublican (R-PA): Bill and Hillary aren't the best leaders for our great country, if you ask me. And I know an Arkansas Democrat will love Bill and Hillary. But the median swing voter will ask questions, about Whitewater, about whether they can trust a man of this slick character, and probably they will say, I'll go for Dole instead. He's an earnest man needed for our times. And he'll also win Vermont. He's got the support of Senator Jeffords after all.

HenryRossStudioPierrot (I-CA): Nah. Vermont is trending Dem and immigration isn't something people care about in the Green Mountain State. It's not as competitive as California is...I think right now I see California flipping narrowly, because Perot voters will support Dole and put him narrowly on top over Clinton there.

RainbowCoalition (D-MI): Vermont is very very white. It's whiter than the white bread I just bought. Practically no African-American voters there. So I can't say. It's not like New York, Illinois, or Michigan.

Hillary4President2000 (D-FL): Bill and Hillary will win Vermont easily, as they have the support of Governor Dean, Senator Sanders, and trends going back decades. Seeing you think that Vermont will flip back is funny. I hope you continue to think so on Election Day. Face it, it's not the 1980s, and Reagan isn't on the ballot anymore. Even if he was you'd have lost 1992.

MarjoliesDidNothingWrong (O-PA): As a suburban woman who voted for Specter in 1992 and a strong supporter of lower taxes and good schools I have to say you don't understand. Tom Ridge is a good governor but Gingrich needs a check on his power and Dole just isn't going to be tough enough. Slick Willy it is.

That’s all true but it’s not like this is the first time the Conservatives have been riding high in BC federally. The Tories did very well in BC during the time of the 2005, 2009 and 2013 BC elections and the BC Liberals were led at the time by people who were very rightwing but who had strong federal Liberal pedigrees like Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark. Ironically, Kevin Falcon is the first federal Conservative to become leader of the B.C. Liberals and its under his leadership that that party is collapsing at the expense of the BC Conservatives

But yes this isn't the first time the BC Cons have polled high, but surely they haven't polled this high in recent years right? There used to be the odd pre-writ poll that had them in the teens, but polling in the 30s is new and a much bigger threat to BCU.

I don't understand why he had to say anything about this at all.  It may be true that they are not "equivalent", but what does that matter?  It's not like you decline to prosecute someone of one murder because someone else has murdered twenty people.

Biden's best hope at triangulation in this conflict is expressing general support for Israel but opposition to the Netanyahu regime, and this completely undermines that.

And just in general, I would like to see the US be much more active and compliant in ICC efforts to combat human rights abuses.

I presume the strategy is that it's further leverage to be applied on Bibi: Washington will shelter him and his officials from prosecution if he plays ball on not continuing to be a flaming moron by treating the PA like dirt.

There ate two interesting parts of the indictment. A) Gantz is not indicted presumably because the ICC, like the rest of the international order, want Likud and its allies to be the sin sponges and Gantz to be untainted. B) Haniyeh is indicted despite the fact he probably can't be directly linked with October unless they have a crazy smoking gun.

That’s all true but it’s not like this is the first time the Conservatives have been riding high in BC federally. The Tories did very well in BC during the time of the 2005, 2009 and 2013 BC elections and the BC Liberals were led at the time by people who were very rightwing but who had strong federal Liberal pedigrees like Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark. Ironically, Kevin Falcon is the first federal Conservative to become leader of the B.C. Liberals and its under his leadership that that party is collapsing at the expense of the BC Conservatives

*Federal Liberals calling themselves Liberals*

Right-wing British Columbians: "Long live Campbellism-Clarkism-Jonathan Wilkinson thought!"

*Federal Conservative not even pretending to be a Liberal*

Right-wing British Columbians: "Get lost Kevin Falcon you damn LIBERAL"

Fun

Something else:

Netanyahu threw the election to Trump

and/or

Democrats should never condone genocide ever again anymore and take working class people / students / minority voters for granted.

I’m convinced this is the same sample of voters each week

I would be careful about reading overmuch into any single poll and so on, though we can note that it's significant that figures like that can be produced.

If he were to win in 2024 and term limits only applied to consecutive terms, any of the potential Democratic candidates like Whitmer, Moore, Warnock or Beshear would clobber him in the landslide we thought 2020 would be.

If Ds lose this Eday they deserve a 3 term Trump but 20 wasn't a landslide because Biden scandal came out on sex abuse and Hunter

Whitmer isn't going to be the Nominee or Harris stop playing it's gonna be Newsom

He might get bigger swings with some states' blacks than others. The thing to look for is where the AAs in a state are more non-college and low income, I'm not sure yet if there's an urban/rural difference. The Democratic vote is so high with them everywhere but perhaps in some states there is more vote to lose than in others.

I suspect this would be states with larger proportions of rural Afro-Americans and states with a worse educational system than others and institutional racism in its history, which would typically be the south.

Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, maybe Virginia (?)