It’s been a while, and this will most likely be my last update before the election unless something changes dramatically.
(IA = MN-Special, AL = MS-Special)
47 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 6 Toss-ups
AZ: Likely D -> Lean D (Likely D was probably a bridge too far, but I’d say Sinema's still a slight favorite here. I could definitely see this and/or MT going Republican [narrowly] if the GOP has a better than expected night, though.)
OH/WV: Lean D -> Likely D (I don’t think an explanation is needed, honestly. Democrats should win both states unless 2018 turns out to be a 2014-style R year. Morrisey and Renacci have been major disappointments, honestly.)
TX: Lean R -> Likely R (Cruz might underperform, but he should be fine.)
However, I still think Republicans are well-positioned to win all the Toss-up races (ND/MS-Special/TN/MO/IN/FL in that order, with FL the one I’m least sure about).
So yeah, 53R/47D is my current (final?) prediction.
