Year of the...?

[socaldem]

I think its a good idea to think on the state level of winning state parties.  I think a few more winners/losers can be added to the list:

2004:

Big Winners: CO Dems
MT Dems
IN GOP- Win Gov chair, pick-up CD9, enlarge majorities in CDs 2 and 8, and take back state legislature
2002-2003


MO GOP-Win gov race and accumulate huge state house majorities, in addition to their senate and Prez wins
IL Dems- OBAMA, congressional victories
LA Dems</b>: Keep vulnerable senate seat, pick-up gov chair, and the next year, the gov chair.  Of course, this sweep was balanced out by the party switch of Alexander and the loss of a senate seat and LA-07 in '04...but for '02-'03 LA dems looked good.

2002:

GA and MN GOP, of course...

TX GOP

FL GOP-Jeb wins huge and Dems lose all statewide offices as Reps cream them in lege races and pick up the new CDs in addition to CD-05

NH GOP-GOP wipes out Dems in the state House, win gov race, and annihilate two well-funded Democratic. House candidates.

2001:

NJ Dems: Pick up gov mansion and solidify control of state house/senate.

--

2006:

Potential Dem opportunities:

PA, NY

AZ-Napolitano looks good and a good showing for Dems might pull Pederson accross the finish line.  The GOP did well in the state house in '04, so dems might pick up some lost territory there.  If Kolbe is Primaried, Dems would have a good shot at that seat. 

OH- Although the senate seat is out of reach, a good victory by Strickland in the gov race combined with state and federal scandals could lead to wins in congressional seats (OH-18, for starters) and in the state house.

GOP:

I don't think its going to be a very good GOP year...though I suppose they could do well in IA or MN, but I think those states could swing either way.

MN-While some see this as a GOP opportunity because of the senate seat, I'm not seeing it.  I think Kennedy is a mediocre candidate and that Dems are on the rebound in the state.  The dems are close to a majority in the state house and have a solid majority in the state senate, so they have more opportunity for a sweep, imo.  Moreover, I could see a Dem pick-up in CD-02 and even in CD 06 if the GOP has a really bad year.

IA-This one really could go either way.  While I'm not impressed with Culver, I think Gronstal and Blouin are both impressive and could make up for Nussle's advantage the East with their west Iowa cred.  It seems to me that a good dem campaign could do better than usual out west and kill him in Des Moines while slightly underperforming out east.  But perhaps thats just wishful thinking.  In any case, the lege is closely divided, so a wind in any direction could send that, along with the open CD-01 with the winning state party.