Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

It also seems that Palin's appeal lies more with men than women.

What did Sam Spade tell you?  Maybe you should listen to him more often. 

he told me that Obama "never had a chance" to beat Clinton back in February

I doubt I would have said that in February.  Please provide the link.  I might have said that after New Hampshire, but it was probably taunting.  In fact, that describes a decent bit of what I did that primary. 

Obama had no chance from the moment he entered the Dem race.  Just FYI 

Yeah, January in between New Hampshire and South Carolina primary.  Told ya. 

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday - September 4, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 50%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (-2, +1)
McCain: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Sam Spade]

As should seem clear, last night's sample was the same - maybe slightly better than the one that replaced it.  Tomorrow, movement will undoubtedly occur towards McCain, as we have the Labor Day sample falling off and the Palin speech impact.  At a minimum, it will at least be a couple of points, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being 4 or 5.  McCain could lead, but I put those chances at low.

[J. J.]

This is the DNC bounce evaporating.

[KeyKeeper]

Also they do polling at 9:00 EST, Gov. Palin did her speech at 10:30 EST. So we will not see how her speech played off until tomorrow.

[RJ]

This is the DNC bounce evaporating.

What happened to the mid week lull for Obama???

[ucscgaldamez]

McCain had a good day with independents last night. However, Democrats appear to be holding strong based on the data. However, following the tracking polls, the independent numbers are normally the ones that keep changing-- back and forth between the candidates. So we'll see what happens.

[Eraserhead]

I'm actually pleased with how little it's moving so far...

I'm worried about the impact last night will have though. Clearly, it was a good night for Republicans. Tonight, frankly, seems like it will be pretty boring by comparison. They should have saved up a few heavy hitters for tonight other than McCain.

[ucscgaldamez]

Yes, I don't know what the Palin effects will be. However, I think there was a lot of media attention. That means higher ratings. It wouldn't surprise me if she had higher ratings than Obama's speech. How that will play out...don't know.

[Eraserhead]

Yes, I don't know what the Palin effects will be. However, I think there was a lot of media attention. That means higher ratings. It wouldn't surprise me if she had higher ratings than Obama's speech. How that will play out...don't know.

Well, that would greatly surprise me... especially since the ratings for Tuesday were rather poor.

Granted, the main event that night consisted of two of the most boring speakers on earth, so we'll see.

[ucscgaldamez]

The media firestorm created a lot of interest. I know that my folks at home wanted to know who she is, even if they are not even gonna vote for her. After she was done, they were not very impressed. We'll see tomorrow the beginning of a bump, if any.

[Meeker]

Do they break it down into day-by-day samples anywhere?

[J. J.]

Do they break it down into day-by-day samples anywhere?

No, not usually, but you can kinda tell if something is a good or bad sample for one candidate.

[ucscgaldamez]

No, they don't break it down. However, you can see the daily numbers (based on the previous 3 day samples). We'll see if Democrats keep holding strong as they are right now, even if McCain is leading modestly among Independents. But like I said, both Gallup and Rasmussen, and other polls, just have independents all over the place. At the end, they may just break even.

Thus, attracting Democrats is crucial for McCain to win. The key for Obama is holding about 85% of Democrats. If he does, then this election is over. The tone of the convention has been really negative.

[Eraserhead]

No, they don't break it down. However, you can see the daily numbers (based on the previous 3 day samples). We'll see if Democrats keep holding strong as they are right now, even if McCain is leading modestly among Independents. But like I said, both Gallup and Rasmussen, and other polls, just have independents all over the place. At the end, they may just break even.

Thus, attracting Democrats is crucial for McCain to win. The key for Obama is holding about 85% of Democrats. If he does, then this election is over. The tone of the convention has been really negative.

If they break even on election day, Obama has probably won the election.

[Torie]

No, they don't break it down. However, you can see the daily numbers (based on the previous 3 day samples). We'll see if Democrats keep holding strong as they are right now, even if McCain is leading modestly among Independents. But like I said, both Gallup and Rasmussen, and other polls, just have independents all over the place. At the end, they may just break even.

Thus, attracting Democrats is crucial for McCain to win. The key for Obama is holding about 85% of Democrats. If he does, then this election is over. The tone of the convention has been really negative.

If they break even on election day, Obama has probably won the election.

The Dem vote fraud operation is that good, huh? 

[Colin]

No, they don't break it down. However, you can see the daily numbers (based on the previous 3 day samples). We'll see if Democrats keep holding strong as they are right now, even if McCain is leading modestly among Independents. But like I said, both Gallup and Rasmussen, and other polls, just have independents all over the place. At the end, they may just break even.

Thus, attracting Democrats is crucial for McCain to win. The key for Obama is holding about 85% of Democrats. If he does, then this election is over. The tone of the convention has been really negative.

If they break even on election day, Obama has probably won the election.

The Dem vote fraud operation is that good, huh? 

Of course! See US Presidential Election, 1960 for more details.

[J. J.]

I expect a Bradley Effect, but a very small one of less than 1 point.  Any tie, I give to McCain.

[Gustaf]

He's talking about the independent vote, not the overall vote. Given the current voter registration numbers he is almost certainly correct (even though McCain's Rep majority will probably be higher than Obama's Dem majority).

In an overall tie I'd give it to McCain in the EC, because I think he has a small edge there relative to the national popular vote. But a complete tie is unlikely, once everything is factored in.

[Brittain33]

Did their site crash from traffic or is it normal to get error messages this time of day?

[KeyKeeper]

Did their site crash from traffic or is it normal to get error messages this time of day?

I have been trying to get into the site for a while now, I think they maybe changing a few thing or something.

[Sam Spade]

Ya, the site is having some problems right now.  Rasmussen's people don't run their site as well as they should.

All I know from Drudge is that Palin is more popular than Obama or McCain now.

[KeyKeeper]

It is back up, but they haven't updated it yet, which is weird.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Did their site crash from traffic or is it normal to get error messages this time of day?

I have been trying to get into the site for a while now, I think they maybe changing a few thing or something.

the DNC is conducting a DOS attack on Rasmussen so that they can continue to pretend Sarah Palin is just a very bad dream.

[Brittain33]

the DNC is conducting a DOS attack on Rasmussen so that they can continue to pretend Sarah Palin is just a very bad dream.

Have you considered the possibility that the sample for today is so strongly McCain that they want some extra time to process it before releasing it?