Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

Back to my Sonntag question--if Rossi wins this year do you guys think it's likely that he would run in 2012? It would help me sleep at night knowing it was only a matter of time before he destroyed that slimy little prick.

He's definitely going to run. That's the only reason he's been putting out signs and billboards and crap this year.

Inslee, of course, will also run.

Blah, Inslee should stick to Congress.

[bgwah]

You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 

The latest poll that had Gregoire by 1 also had Obama by 16. If Rossi is really running 15 point ahead of McCain, Gregoire is indeed doomed. Plus every other tv ad is a Rossi ad. I think Rossi would be more credible in 2016 if he wins reelection.

Really? I think Gregoire is more like to win under Obama +10 as opposed to Obama +15.

[bgwah]

Burner up 50-46 in latest SUSA poll.

I don't really believe it, but perhaps this race will be closer than I thought.

[bgwah]

You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 

The latest poll that had Gregoire by 1 also had Obama by 16. If Rossi is really running 15 point ahead of McCain, Gregoire is indeed doomed. Plus every other tv ad is a Rossi ad. I think Rossi would be more credible in 2016 if he wins reelection.

Really? I think Gregoire is more like to win under Obama +10 as opposed to Obama +15.

Do explain.

The less young anti-old voters that show up, the better for Gregoire. And better for McCain, too, but he doesn't really have a chance regardless of that.

[bgwah]

I-985 doesn't seem like something that should be a statewide initiative.

[bgwah]

Bad news for Dino. Something like this normally wouldn't matter, but when it comes to Gregoire vs. Rossi even a few hundred voters changing their minds could decide the election.

[bgwah]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-t6YRbHcyQ

Not something you want in the last week of a close race...

[bgwah]

SUSA says Gregoire up 2: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bde668c1-54fa-4303-89aa-7d69ad6e91a0

Strategic Vision agrees: http://strategicvision.biz/political/washington_poll_102908.htm

[bgwah]

Seattle Times endorsed McCraw. I'm starting to worry a little about Owen...

The Times is a GOP rag.

I like Owen just fine. McCraw isn't ready to be Governor. Owen will do well in areas that other Democrats don't, which will make up for poor numbers in Seattle. I don't think he has a ton to worry about.

I saw a McKenna commercial today. Seems like a waste of money unless he's planning a run for Governor, which is probably the case.

[bgwah]

"Initiative Measure No. 975 concerns vegetables"

omg adorable


ahahahahaha, Jason Osgood at 49.8%!


SPI decided by 4 votes. Oh sh*t, speaking of that... I totally forgot to vote on it!! I just put my ballot in the mail today, too. I told myself I would decide on that later and completely forgot. Oh well, I was having trouble deciding anyway.

[bgwah]

Looks like Gregoire wins.

[bgwah]

Gregoire is currently at 53.5%. I highly doubt Dino Rossi will be able to overcome this even if late voters break heavily in his favor (which I doubt will happen).

For State Treasurer, McIntire is at 52.2%. I think it's safe to say McIntire wins.

Goldmark has 50.4% for Commissioner of Public Lands right now. This could definitely change still, and might even be likely at this point.

Darcy Burner also has 50.4% in the 8th District with a vote margin of less than 1,000. Personally I think late ballots will break heavily for Reichert and let him win, but I hope I'm wrong.

Proposition 1 (Mass transit) looks like it will pass. All of the initiatives have voted as expected.

King County has been extremely Democratic so far. Obama is currently at 74% and Gregoire at 69%. I'm not sure what happened here. I'm also surprised with Obama over 60% in Snohomish and at 58% in Pierce. One thing's for certain--John McCain was utterly decimated in suburban Seattle.

[bgwah]

Burner's lead is down to 60 votes. I'm about 97% certain Reichert will win.

[bgwah]

I would rather have Burner win if I could only have one of the two. It doesn't look like she will, though.

[bgwah]

Haha, 41% McCain in the 5th district! Owned. I hope my precinct hits 70%.

[bgwah]

The Seattle Times has officially declared Reichert the winner. They don't mention that they're the reason he won, though.

Oh well, the Times also took down Doug Sutherland, so at least it's somewhat even.

[bgwah]

Washington State GOP Confident Despite Loss

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html

After what happened in 2006 and 2008 in WA, it takes some level of delusion to feel good at this point.  Or maybe it is just a front.

My thoughts: Ever since the 2006 election, I've basically figured that in the state legislature, the Democrats had probably hit their ceiling. The only place Republicans had to go was up---they lost almost every seat they could possibly lose. A few suburban districts here and there may continue trending Dem and elect a Democratic legislator when one of the Republican incumbents step down (5th LD, for example), but the Republicans will regain some of the lean R seats they've lost (an incumbent Democratic Representative in the 6th district (suburban Spokane) who was first elected in 2006 has already been defeated, for example).

I expect Reichert to be the last Republican Representative in the 8th district for a long time. I'm fairly certain the Democrats will be able to take him down once they get a decent candidate. Whether that will ever happen is uncertain, though once Reichert steps down the Democrats should definitely win it.

The GOP is in deep trouble in suburban Seattle. Let's look at the Southern United States---in the 80s and 90s, we saw a lot of Democratic politicans ditch the party and join the GOP. This is quite indicative of a long-term change in the way the area votes. In suburban Seattle we've seen people like Rodney Tom and Fred Jarrett jump ship. It's clear that suburban Seattle is going Democrat and it won't be going back any time soon. We saw this happen in many parts of Seattle like Fremont and Wallingford in the 70s. They used to be Republican and then took a sharp-turn for the left. This example is probably a bit radical, but I do honestly think we're seeing the political Seattleization of suburban Seattle (particular the Northside and Eastside). It's true that some areas, like suburban Pierce County, are becoming the new Republican suburban strongholds, but quite simply they don't even come close to countering the Metro-wide Dem-trend.

As for statewide officials, they'll sneak in some Republicans for sure. Maybe even a Governor. Alcon and I agreed a while ago that Rob McKenna was more likely than Rossi to be the next Republican Governor of Washington. I think McKenna has a very good chance of being Governor eventually and I don't think he has hid his intentions to seek the office. Rossi had one important thing McKenna doesn't, though. Looks. Let's face it, Rossi only did so well because he was a handsome young man up against an ugly old woman. McKenna is an ugly nerd with glasses. It's not something I base my vote on, but considering how shallow your average swing voter is, it's definitely something worth considering. Sonntag is the only Democrat I'd be confident with against McKenna. Though the other mentioned names (Inslee, for example) would also have a good chance (though it's a risk I'd rather not take). I doubt Reed is popular enough with Republicans to make it past the primary and we just saw Sutherland go down this month. Allan Martin was an extremely strong candidate for an open office and he lost (and McIntire did pretty well in some traditionally Democratic areas for such a close election, surprisingly).

The GOP has yet another problem---Washingtonians often get their conservativeness out of them via referendums and initiatives, thus eliminating some of the need to vote Republican. I believe Chris Vance has talked about this.

So, McKenna aside, there aren't any truly worrisome Republicans out there yet. I doubt McMorris Rodgers will be leaving the House, but perhaps I've been misled. The Democrats will probably control the state legislature for decades to come. The Puget Sound is turning into the Bay Area 2.0 and Washington doesn't have enough populous Republican areas like Orange County (and much of Southern California)* to counter it.


*yeah, they weren't so Republican this year, but you get my drift

[bgwah]

I'm curious what you're referring to in regards to suburban Pierce County trending Republican. What specific areas?

I didn't say they were trending Republican. Maybe a 60% Republican rural area turned into a 57% Republican suburban area. That may be a swing to the Democrats, but in terms of raw votes, it's an increase for the Republicans (and will increase the R % in Pierce). Pierce is less reliably Democrat than it has been in the past. The county isn't dominated by Tacoma like it used to be. Pierce would've been Democrat in a 50-50 election 40 years ago. Now it would be Republican in such a scenario. When you look at the major areas of the Metro, suburban Pierce is the most Republican. I was thinking of areas like Graham but I'm really not very familiar with specific places in suburban Pierce.

I'll let Alcon give a more detailed answer...

[bgwah]

Why did Gregoire do so badly in the south of the state [qm].

Something else that is very strange about that map is that, despite Gregoire only getting 53% statewide, she won Island and Skagit counties, which would normally be Republican under such circumstances...

[bgwah]

Maybe they just wanted to keep the map looking neat and tidy.

It's an out of date map. Clallam and Mason have actually flipped to Rossi. Clallam is, of course, normally Republican with such statewide numbers. Mason isn't, and goes along with Cowlitz in lean D counties that Gregoire lost.

What are the odds that the Dems ever get a good candidate against Reichert? (not that this means they would win, which might depend a lot on the environment)  Burner performed worse than Ross did, which is hilarious in many ways.

Burner collapsed at the end because of some silly scandal where she said "major" instead of minor," basically. As for your question, one thing that's important to note is that following Democratic gains in the state legislature in 2004 and 2006, there are many more Democratic state legislators in the 8th district now than there were in 2004 (when Reichert first ran.) Basically there are many more potential challengers who could actually defeat Reichert now. Rodney Tom would be a strong challenger and was going to run for the seat before dropping out and letting Burner have the Democratic nomination. A real shame, too, since he would have actually won the seat.

[bgwah]

It currently looks like the race for the newly created King County Elections Director will be between Jason Osgood and Pam Roach. This has to be some sort of cruel sick joke. We're being Punk'd, right?

No. Noooo. NOoooOoooooooOoooooOOoooooooOoOoooo. Worst. election. ever. Just thinking about it makes me want to die.

[bgwah]

A non-partisan race between two Democrats is going to confuse voters.

[bgwah]

Never! I would like to see this become an ever-lasting general Washington thread.

[bgwah]

McCain only had one >60 LD? Strange.

The West Seattle/Vashon district being >30 McCain also seems weird.

[bgwah]

Washington Legislature History

You might be interested in this.  Starting on page 157 (162 of the .PDF file) you'll find legislative district maps since statehood. 

There is also some stuff on the territorial legislature.  Early on the the population centers were Vancouver, Clarke County (sic until 1924); and Olympia, Thurston County.  The next boom was in Walla Walla.  Tacoma and then Seattle were somewhat later developers.

Yeah. Southeastern Washington used to have as many people as the Puget Sound.

Awesome stuff Jim.  I'll look at it more in the morning.  I knew that Grays Harbor County used to be Chehalis County, but not about Clark-with-an-"e."  Growth redistricting should be cool, too.

I DID, CUZ I'M AWESOME.

Wasn't Kitsap "Slaughter County" originally?