Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win? (user search)
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  Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who do you think is most likely to win this November?
#1
Terry McAuliffe (D)		  
#2
Ken Cuccinelli (R)		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 168

Author Topic: Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?  (Read 67584 times)
JRP1994
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,048
« on: June 26, 2013, 05:54:36 PM »
Ken Cuccinelli = Rick Santorum with a brain.
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JRP1994
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,048
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2013, 10:00:59 AM »
Quinnipiac does show the same result as PPP - McAuliffe +4. However, both polls are "Registered Voter" polls, not "Likely Voter". Nate Silver once said that the shift from Registered to Likely usually shifts the result R+1 or R+2. If played conservatively, that turns the result into McAuliffe +3.

The poll's MoE is 3%. I agree that McAuliffe has a slight lead, but this is pretty darn close to a tossup. I'd say McAuliffe has a 55-60% chance of winning.
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