Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[JonHawk]

Good to see Bolsonaro doing good in the polls!

[Mike88]

Dilma Rousseff in 4th place in the Minas Gerais senate race. I believe this means she will not get win, right? Only the top 2 get in, right?

[jaichind]

Any exit polls for the presidential race?

6pm est.  Of course 80% of the vote would have been counted.  I cannot stand this system.  Take all the fun out of it.  

[njwes]

I voted Bolsonaro (would have voted Amoêdo but he doesn't have a chance) for president, Romeu Zema for governor, Rodrigo Paiva and Rodrigo Pacheco for senate, Tiago Mitraud for federal deputy and Bernardo Bartolomeu for state deputy.

The polls will close in some minutes and exit polls wil come soon.

Yankee_Mapper, are you in Brazil or did you vote from abroad/from New York?

[Double Carpet]

Guys, what are your predictions for the pres exit polls for the main candidates, and then your predictions for the second round?

[DavidB.]

Guys, what are your predictions for the pres exit polls for the main candidates, and then your predictions for the second round?

Guess Bolsonaro is in the low to mid 40s now and will win the runoff with a decent margin.

[njwes]

I voted Bolsonaro (would have voted Amoêdo but he doesn't have a chance) for president, Romeu Zema for governor, Rodrigo Paiva and Rodrigo Pacheco for senate, Tiago Mitraud for federal deputy and Bernardo Bartolomeu for state deputy.

The polls will close in some minutes and exit polls wil come soon.

Yankee_Mapper, are you in Brazil or did you vote from abroad/from New York?

I live in Brazil, Minas Gerais to be more exact. My parents are Brazilian so I can vote.

Ok gotcha, I just wasn't sure cause of the avatar. Looks like it'll be an exciting night

[jaichind]

Any link to live results?

[jaichind]

Looks like the anti-PT vote is out in full force.   Excellent.

[jaichind]

Guys, what are your predictions for the pres exit polls for the main candidates, and then your predictions for the second round?

Guess Bolsonaro is in the low to mid 40s now and will win the runoff with a decent margin.

That would be my guess as well.  I wish this is true for the second round.  Somehow I am suspicious of some sort of surprise between the first and second round that could hinder Bolsonaro.

[Velasco]

Yesterday a Brazilian guy who appears to be a Bolsonaro supporter requested my friendship in Facebook. He has a shirt of the Brazilian football team with the number 17 (Ronaldinho endorses that trash, apparently). I would spit that guy in the eye instead. It's crazy.

It seems that Brazilian elite and a good chunk of the middle class are very happy with the fascist. Highway to Hell

[DavidB.]

Yesterday a Brazilian guy who appears to be a Bolsonaro supporter requested my friendship in Facebook. He has a shirt of the Brazilian football team with the number 17 (Ronaldinho endorses that trash, apparently). I would spit that guy in the eye instead. It's crazy.

It seems that Brazilian elite and a good chunk of the middle class are very happy with the fascist. Highway to Hell

I don't know, man, but if you would spit this guy in the eye for his political preferences when he did nothing bad to you, it may be you who behaves like a fascist, not him.

The overblown rhetoric about Bolsonaro's "fascism" (I even saw an article in Foreign Policy comparing him to Goebbels) has only led to a far-left attack on him. In the Netherlands we've seen what happened to Pim Fortuyn. I wonder if this is a deliberate tactic and if the supposedly "respectable" leftists just want Bolsonaro to be "taken out".

[jaichind]

Exit poll in Rio de Janeiro:

Governor:

Wilson Witzel (PSC): 39%
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 21%
Tarcísio Motta (PSOL): 15%
Romário (PODE): 9%
Indio (PSD): 6%
Pedro Fernandes (PDT): 4%
Marcia Tiburi (PT): 4%
Marcelo Trindade (NOVO): 1%
André Monteiro (PRTB): 0%
Dayse Oliveira (PSTU): 0%
Luiz Eugênio Honorato (PCO): 0%

Exit poll in Minas Gerais

Governor

Romeu Zema (NOVO): 41%
Antonio Anastasia (PSDB): 29%
Fernando Pimentel (PT): 22%
Dirlene Marques (PSOL): 3%
Adalclever Lopes (MDB): 3%
Jordano Metalúrgico (PSTU): 1%
Alexandre Flach (PCO): 0%
Claudiney Dulim (AVANTE): 0%
João Batista Mares Guia (REDE): 0%

Senate

Jornalista Carlos Viana (PHS): 21%
Dinis Pinheiro (SOLIDARIEDADE): 18%
Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM): 18%
Dilma Rousseff (PT): 15%
Miguel Correa (PT): 7%
Rodrigo Paiva (NOVO): 7%
Fábio Cherem (PDT): 4%
Professora Duda Salabert (PSOL): 3%
Coronel Lacerda (PPL): 2%
Bispo Damasceno (PPL): 1%
Edson Andre P (AVANTE): 1%
Kaka Menezes (REDE): 1%
Professor Tulio Lopes (PCB): 1%
Vanessa Portugal Barbosa (PSTU): 1%
Ana Alves (PCO): 0%


I'm very happy right now

Wait.  Why did PT nominate 2 candidates for Senate in  Minas Gerais?

[Former President tack50]

Wait.  Why did PT nominate 2 candidates for Senate in  Minas Gerais?

2 senators will be elected in all states this year, so they decided to have 2 candidates in the state.

Do people have 2 votes as well or just 1?

[catographer]

Yesterday a Brazilian guy who appears to be a Bolsonaro supporter requested my friendship in Facebook. He has a shirt of the Brazilian football team with the number 17 (Ronaldinho endorses that trash, apparently). I would spit that guy in the eye instead. It's crazy.

It seems that Brazilian elite and a good chunk of the middle class are very happy with the fascist. Highway to Hell

I don't know, man, but if you would spit this guy in the eye for his political preferences when he did nothing bad to you, it may be you who behaves like a fascist, not him.

The overblown rhetoric about Bolsonaro's "fascism" (I even saw an article in Foreign Policy comparing him to Goebbels) has only led to a far-left attack on him. In the Netherlands we've seen what happened to Pim Fortuyn. I wonder if this is a deliberate tactic and if the supposedly "respectable" leftists just want Bolsonaro to be "taken out".

Idk how else you'd describe Bolsonaro other than "fascist." He is admittedly a fan of right wing military dictatorship, has praised torture and the death penalty; is deeply sexist; said a female politician wasn't "worthy of rape"; is deeply homophobic.

[jaichind]

Wait.  Why did PT nominate 2 candidates for Senate in  Minas Gerais?

2 senators will be elected in all states this year, so they decided to have 2 candidates in the state.

Ah, so how does the runoff work in such a situation? Does the top 3 make it into the runoff ?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yesterday a Brazilian guy who appears to be a Bolsonaro supporter requested my friendship in Facebook. He has a shirt of the Brazilian football team with the number 17 (Ronaldinho endorses that trash, apparently). I would spit that guy in the eye instead. It's crazy.

It seems that Brazilian elite and a good chunk of the middle class are very happy with the fascist. Highway to Hell

I don't know, man, but if you would spit this guy in the eye for his political preferences when he did nothing bad to you, it may be you who behaves like a fascist, not him.

The overblown rhetoric about Bolsonaro's "fascism" (I even saw an article in Foreign Policy comparing him to Goebbels) has only led to a far-left attack on him. In the Netherlands we've seen what happened to Pim Fortuyn. I wonder if this is a deliberate tactic and if the supposedly "respectable" leftists just want Bolsonaro to be "taken out".

Idk how else you'd describe Bolsonaro other than "fascist." He is admittedly a fan of right wing military dictatorship, has praised torture and the death penalty; is deeply sexist; said a female politician wasn't "worthy of rape"; is deeply homophobic.

he also has refused to acknowledge the election result in the event he loses.

[Double Carpet]

NMR, Bolsonaro winning in the first round ie >50% in Rd 1?

Or just leading in 1st round?

Thanks

[jaichind]

Wait.  Why did PT nominate 2 candidates for Senate in  Minas Gerais?

2 senators will be elected in all states this year, so they decided to have 2 candidates in the state.

Ah, so how does the runoff work in such a situation? Does the top 3 make it into the runoff ?

No, the two candidates with the most votes are elected.

Then PT's decision to have 2 candidates in  Minas Gerais sound very unwise.  I guess the figured that Dilma Rousseff would be invincible ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NMR, Bolsonaro winning in the first round ie >50% in Rd 1?

Or just leading in 1st round?

Thanks

The former is presently being rumoured.

[jaichind]

NMR, Bolsonaro winning in the first round ie >50% in Rd 1?

Or just leading in 1st round?

Thanks

The former is presently being rumoured.

Excellent

[Double Carpet]

Blimey.

Anyway you can get a 37% return on him on live betting markets.

[Double Carpet]

So there's no leaks/rumours of results from early/quick counting states eg Espirito Santo?

[jaichind]

BRL market has mostly priced in a strong Bolsonaro performance but not a first round victory.  A first round victory by Bolsonaro will see BRL surge.

[jaichind]

10 min left but only 48$ of the vote counted.  Back in 2014 on the second round of the Prez race I recall when the result were allowed to be shown it as 90% counted.  I guess counting this year is slower ?