Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[Mike88]

Sadly, former first lady Marisa Letícia has died. RIP

Will this impact Lula's decision to run in 2018? I guess that after this he may step aside.

[Mike88]

Lula has just been sentenced to nine and a half years in prison but is still free pending his appeal. Can the Brazilians here clarify whether or not he's also free to run for President whilst his appeal is pending.

His attorneys will probably ask for an appeal. Right now, nothing would stop his candidacy unless the appeal court upholds the 1st rolling . After that, yes, he would be barred from running in accordance with "Clean Sheet" (Ficha Limpa) law.

[Mike88]

Portuguese media is strongly covering Lula's acusation:

Front page of Jornal i:

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PS: Lula translated to English means Squid.

[Mike88]

So, Alckmin was elected President of PSDB and will, probably, be the party's candidate in 2018. He's polling around 9-10%. Does he really has a chance?

Also, the PSDB will drop their support for Temer.

[Mike88]

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?

[Mike88]

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?

He's not left-wing, so the corrupt courts will let him off the hook.

I don't know... from what i googled about him, his cases are still in court and, who knows, he could also be barred from running.

[Mike88]

The majority of judges, 2 out of 3, have upheld Lula da Silva's conviction. Therefore, Lula is, for the moment, forbidden to run for President. But, he can still appeal to the Higher Electoral Court (STE), then to the Superior Justice Court (STJ) and finally to the Federal Court of Justice (STF).

From what i understand, if he appeals, his conviction is suspended until the rulling is known. He can still be a candidate if, at the date of the election, his appeals aren't confirmed but if he wins the election and his appeal is denied, the election is declared invalid and a new election has to be held.

Also, the 3rd judge vote is important because if he votes in favour of Lula, his defense could try to cancel this ruling and present new evidences.

[Mike88]

Ibovespa benchmark stock index ended up 3.7% on news of Lula corruption appeal being dismissed.  It seems Lula claims he will still run for Prez.  Not sure how he will do this.  Is he not just barred from running ?

He will appeal to the Superior Justice Court, so the current ruling is suspended until a new one is proclaimed. But, one of judges said that Lula could actually go to jail in 2 or 3 months, and if that happens, he'll have to wait for his appeal sentence in jail. I don't what will happen if he goes to jail, if he's automatically barred from running or not.

Nonetheless, the justice system is not in his favour, but timing could actually help him. If he goes from appeal after appeal, he could run and win the election, but, like i said in a post earlier, if in his last chance to present an appeal, to the Federal Superior Court, he is still found guilty, then the election is declared invalid and a new one, without Lula, has to be held.

[Mike88]

I don't think this has been posted, but, for a bit of fun and relax, here's the election broadcast for each of the candidates running for president: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucYqrumJx6Y

My favourite, Bousos PSOL candidate: "Hi, everybody! Let's speak the truth, this is all BS. Time is unequal. Alckmin will have a bunch of time to only say garbage. Let's go to the internet, i am waiting for you". Love it

And also, the electoral broadcast for federal house candidates (from Rio de Janeiro state): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbGUkJQY-oo

My favourite, so good ones but i guess this one: Juan Carlos 2345 -"I'm the youngest candidate for the federal house, i have been preparing for this my whole life." Priceless.

[Mike88]

Wow, watching the presidential ads really shows how unequal the time is. While some candidates get barely a few seconds, Alckmin and Haddad get a ton of time (and I assume Haddad would get even more if his coalition was broader, he seems to have lost several allies compared to 2014).

As for the Congressional ones, they are quite small, particularly for small parties! Some barely have enough time to say their name!

Finally, what's with the 2 digit codes for presidential candidates and 4 digit codes for house candidates? What are they used for?

Voting machine used in Brazil

Because voting in Brazil is 100% electronic, each party has a certain number it is identified as: PT is 13, PSDB 45, and so on. Voting machines only have numbers. For federal house candidates, i believe it just the number of the party, the first two, and then the number of the candidate, 43, 56, 25 and so on. For federal senator, it's the party number plus just one number: 1, 2 or 3, i believe. For state member candidates, it's also the party number plus 3 other numbers: 245, 515, 421, and so on.

More broadcasts. Election broadcast for state house member candidates, from São Paulo state: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RUQLfG1H9k

PT has a clown as a candidate, literally. Alessandro Azevedo "O Palhaço Charles" 13000 

[Mike88]

A Datafolha and two Ibope polls about the presidential election will still be released today if I'm not mistaken.

Datafollha poll (conducted between 4-6 October; Polled 19,552 voters)

Valid votes:

40% Bolsonaro
25% Haddad
15% Ciro
  8% Alckmin
  3% Silva
  3% Amoêdo
  2% Dias
  2% Meirelles
  1% Daciolo
  1% Boulos
  0% Lúcia
  0% Goulart Filho
  0% Eymael


Ibope poll (conducted between 5-6 October; Polled 3,010 voters)

Valid votes:

41% Bolsonaro
25% Haddad
13% Ciro
  8% Alckmin
  3% Amoêdo
  3% Silva
  2% Dias
  2% Daciolo
  2% Meirelles
  1% Boulos
  0% Lúcia
  0% Goulart Filho
  0% Eymael

[Mike88]

Polls have also opened in Portugal in order for the 40,000 registered Brazilian voters to cast their ballots. It will be interesting to see who win here. I believe Dilma won in Portugal in both 2010 and 2014, but since then there has been a huge influx of high middle class or upper class Brazilian who have come to live in Portugal. These voters could be more Bolsonaro leaning.

In the Portuguese community in Brazil, around 160,000 people, the president of the of the permanent council of Portuguese communities abroad, Flávio Martins, said that around 80% of the Portuguese community in Brazil will vote for Bolsonaro. He added that many Portuguese living in Brazil have been actively campaigning for Bolsonaro.

[Mike88]

Two new polls from yesterday:

Instituto Veritá poll (Conducted between 2 and 5 October; Polled 5,208 voters; MoE of 2%)

Valid votes:

51.2% Bolsonaro
23.2% Haddad
10.4% Gomes
  5.2% Alckimin
  3.6% Amoêdo
  1.7% Silva
  1.2% Dias
  1.2% Daciolo
  1.0% Meirelles
  0.9% Boulos
  0.3% Eymael
  0.1% Lúcia
  0.1% Goulart Filho

Vox Populi/Brasil 247 poll (Conducted between on 6 October; Polled 2,000 voters; MoE of 2.2%)

Valid votes:
  
40% Bolsonaro
31% Haddad
11% Gomes
  5% Alckimin
  2% Marina
  1% Amoêdo
  1% Meirelles
  1% Daciolo
  1% Dias
  1% Boulos  

How reliable is Instituto Veritá? It's the only poll putting Bolsonaro above 50%.

[Mike88]

How reliable is Instituto Veritá? It's the only poll putting Bolsonaro above 50%.

I've never heard about it, it doesn't seem very reliable.

I thought so. It's a bit of a "rouge poll". However, looking back to polling in Brazilian elections, since 1994, there seems to be a tendency of underpolling PSDB, or other right-wing parties/candidates. That could mean two things: Alckimin could be heavily underestimated and could surprise today, or it is Bolsonaro himself that is a bit underpolled. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Dilma Rousseff in 4th place in the Minas Gerais senate race. I believe this means she will not get win, right? Only the top 2 get in, right?

[Mike88]

9 minutes until the first huge wave of votes in the presidential race.

Also, Bolsonaro seems to have won in Portugal by a landslide.

[Mike88]

Exit poll: 2nd round needed. Bolsonaro 45%, Haddad 28%

[Mike88]

First returns:

49.0% Bolsonaro
26.0% Haddad
12.3% Ciro
  4.8% Alckimin

[Mike88]

According to what Globo is saying, only 11% of the vote for president in the southeast has been counted, that means a lot of pro Bolsonaro vote could still come if that's right. But there's also a big share of northeastern votes that still haven't been counted, so this is probably going to the second round.

There's still nothing from São Paulo or Minas Gerais.

[Mike88]

68% vote counted and Bolsonaro down to 46.38%.  Looks like the exit poll is pretty accurate.

That was an error. He's at 48.4% currently.

[Mike88]

Good site with results by state and municipality: https://politica.estadao.com.br/eleicoes/2018/cobertura-votacao-apuracao/primeiro-turno/presidente

[Mike88]

By city:

São Paulo city (93.6% in)

44.9% Bolsonaro
19.3% Haddad
14.9% Ciro
  8.8% Alckimin

Rio de Janeiro city (18.5% in)

56.6% Bolsonaro
21.4% Ciro
11.7% Haddad
  2.7% Amoêdo
  2.1% Alckimin

[Mike88]

The PT might well bungle this one, goddamn it. Will enough of Ciro's voters be willing to vote for Haddad in order to stop Bolsonaro in the runoff?

Ciro will, IMO and with all likelihood, endorse Haddad. The problem is if that's enough. If Bolsonaro is able to hold on to his voters, because that's also a huge doubt, add around 1-1.5% from other smaller candidates like Daciolo, and add around 30% of Alckimin voters, i believe he would win with around 51% of the votes in the second round.

[Mike88]

Reactions from abroad:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of Portugal: "The world woke up today with bad news of intolerance, chauvinism and xenophobia."

[Mike88]

Public prosecutor’s office in Brasilia is probing candidate Bolsonaro’s main economic adviser Paulo Guedes for alleged association with managers linked to politicians in order to fraud pension funds of state-controlled companies.  The planned delegation of economic policy by a Bolsonaro administration to Guedes is a key part of the market rally.  Now that is under threat.

This may hurt Bolsonaro if more details are revealed and if stories like these hit people close to Bolsonaro. Even Bolsonaro himself, who knows. It may turn off many voters that are concerned with corruption, but the question is if this is enough for many voters that loathe the PT so deeply. I'm not sure that's the case, but we'll see.