Michigan-PPP: Hillary leads all by double digits

[pbrower2a]

I noted that in a lot of polls, Hillary gets the worst % against Christie. In this poll, she is at 48% against Christie, but she is at 49%, 50% and 51% against the others.
The same in Alaska:

Hillary vs Palin: 46/40 (D +6%)
Hillary vs Huckabee: 39/47 (R +8%)
Hillary vs Bush: 38/47 (R +9%)
Hillary vs Christie: 34/45 (R +11%)
Hillary vs Rand Paul: 36/50 (R +14%)

and in Arkansas (excluding Huck)

Bush 46% Clinton 41%
Christie 42% Clinton 41%
Cruz 46% Clinton 42%
Huckabee 55% Clinton 39%
Paul 45% Clinton 42%

and in Kansas

Hillary - Jeb Bush: 39-45
Hillary - Huckabee: 41-46
Hillary - Rand Paul: 41-45
Hillary - Christie 38-42
Hillary - Ted Cruz: 42-43

and in North Carolina

Clinton 45% Huckabee 44%
Clinton 46% Bush 42%
Clinton 47% Paul 42%
Clinton 47% Cruz 41%
Clinton 45% Christie 38%

Why?

I wouldn't make much of a 1% difference at this stage.

Huckabee is an execrable match for the political culture outside the South except perhaps Alaska, which has many Texans and Oklahomans in the oil industry. Christie is a poor match for the political demographic who used to vote for Senator Jesse Helms. Jeb Bush is the definitive "establishment" Republican.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan in recent binary Presidential elections:

Year      Pct D   Pct R  Margin   National Result

2012      54       45        9        D+4
2008      57       41      16        D+7  
2004      51       48        3        R+3
2000      51       46        5       even* 
1988      46       54        8         R+7

A Democratic nominee  needs to win Michigan by at least 5% to win nationwide. Unlike the case in 2000, "even" in nationwide voting favors a Democrat.   Michigan is roughly D+5.

*We all know how the 2000 election turned ou t. Because of Ross Perot, neither the 1992 nor 1996 election was really binary.     

[pbrower2a]

Michigan in recent binary Presidential elections:

Year      Pct D   Pct R  Margin   National Result

2012      54       45        9        D+4
2008      57       41      16        D+7  
2004      51       48        3        R+3
2000      51       46        5       even* 
1988      46       54        8         R+7

A Democratic nominee  needs to win Michigan by at least 5% to win nationwide. Unlike the case in 2000, "even" in nationwide voting favors a Democrat.   Michigan is roughly D+5.

*We all know how the 2000 election turned out. Because of Ross Perot, neither the 1992 nor 1996 election was really binary.     

More specific:

1988: Michigan vs. National — R+0.17


Since after the 1980s, Michigan has been a Democratic base state. The numbers:

1992 Michigan vs. National: D+1.83
1996 Michigan vs. National: D+4.69
2000 Michigan vs. National: D+4.62
2004 Michigan vs. National: D+5.88
2008 Michigan vs. National: D+9.18
2012 Michigan vs. National: D+5.61

Average margin spread, from 1992 to 2012, was: D+5.30

The state of Michigan is now a partisan-voting index of 5 to 6 percentage points more Democratic relative the percent margins from the U.S. Popular Vote.

Which means that when someone calls Michigan a "Purple State," you can safely assume that they're completely divorced from reality and press the Ignore button.

Or start laughing as if one were talking about Kansas being a purple state. Oh, wait!