Nyvin
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,679
|
 |
« on: February 12, 2019, 10:11:59 PM » |
|
Quick overview of the PA State Senate since there's the special election coming up April 2nd.
First Maps:
Statewide:
Allegheny:
Southeast:
Dark red: Dem Incumbent/Won by Clinton
Light Red: Dem Incumbent/Won by Trump
Light Blue: GOP Incumbent/Won by Clinton
Dark Blue: GOP Incumbent/Won by Trump
Gray: Vacant
Current Partisan make up:
28R - 21D - 1V
Since the only districts that will have elections before redistricting are the odd numbered seats in 2020, those are the only ones worth mentioning as of now. Here's what I'd consider competitive as of now:
SD-9 Tom Killion (R) - A rapidly dem-trending district that Clinton won by a yuge 13.48% margin (Gov Wolf won by 10% in 2014). Killion is a first termer elected in 2016 by 51.3%-48.6%. If the current suburb trends of 2016-2018 bleed downballot like the rest of the country then this will be Likely D.
SD-11 Judy Schwank (D) - Won by Clinton by a narrow 2.87% margin in a district Wolf won by 9.74% just two years earlier in 2014. Schwank is fairly popular and well established since winning her special election in 2011, she ran unopposed in 2016. Still, this district is too far from Metro-Philly to have any upcoming dem trend, and the vice versa for SD-9 applies here, if rural/small town areas of SEPA continue to move against Dems, then this will definitely be a race to watch. Tossup.
SD-15 John DiSanto (R) - Probably one of the more interesting districts to watch, if nothing else because if there's ANY chance of a Dem majority it'd be through this seat being number 25 (With Lt Gov Fetterman's breaking the tie). Trump won this district by 4.75%, and Corbett won by 3.25% in 2014, the district has remained pretty consistent (DiSanto even won by 3.45% in 2016, actually doing worse than Trump). Harrisburg does show promise for Dems going forward, and DiSanto is a first termer too, so I'll go with Lean R.
SD-37 Vacant - The April 2nd Special will feature a district Trump won by 5.79%, and Corbett won by 6.96% in 2014. There's a small D-trend here, and the district does include Mt Lebanon and other suburbia areas that are heading D's way. Most of the district trended D from 2012-2016. Most definitely a tossup (maaybe slightly tilting R)
SD-45 Jim Brewster (D) Elected in 2010, Brewster will be 72 years old by the 2020 elections and might need to be on retirement watch. Trump eeked out a 0.7% win here where Wolf won by an impressive 13.25% in 2014. State level Dems are very strong here and the bench should be fine if Brewster decides to retire. Unfortunately for Dems this is the area of Allegheny where Clinton did fare poorly in. Lean D.
SD-49 Dan Laughlin (R) - Erie county has definitely seen it's trend to Republicans recently with Clinton just barely winning a district by 1.62% in a district Obama and Wolf won by over 18 points in 2012/2014. Laughlin is a first termer without much of a profile (There's really not much out there about him...anywhere). I'd say the Dems have a good shot if they find the right candidate and can make up ground lost in 2016. Lean R.
To take a majority Dems will need to flip a total of four seats (including the vacant SD-37) to go from their current 21 to a 25-25 split and give Fetterman the tie-breaker. There really only seems to be one path to do this that I can see - Keep all their competitive seats, win the vacant SD-37, and win the three remaining R held competitive seats - SD-9, SD-15, and SD-49. SD-9 is almost a gimme, and winning the Allegheny seat is very doable. SD-15 and SD-49 probably require a 2020 to be at least a modestly good D year to flip.
Republicans do have the easier path to a majority, namely just keeping their loses to SD-9, while potentially picking up either SD-11 or SD-45. They'll definitely want all the 2020 seats in their hands since Dems will inevitably get a better map in 2022 with redistricting, making SEPA seats like SD-6, SD-16, and SD-24 much more easily winnable.
|
