Australia - 7 September 2013

[MaxQue]

What is it with your attitude?

He wants Labor to lose because it was infiltrated by the evil and filthy gays.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What is it with your attitude?

He wants Labor to lose because it was infiltrated by the evil and filthy gays.

Yeah, he should love Abbott. He's basically an old-school DLP-er who pretends to believe in the Liberal industrial relations policies.

What the hell would cause such a massive switch from Labor to Liberal so quickly?

Basically, we're not seeing normal gold-star pollsters dealing with them, only this new bunch of insta-pollers. The Newspoll does leave a lot to be desired, much like during the 2012 Pres election, my rule is if the internal elements of the poll, despite the headlines, don't make sense, then I'm going to challenge the findings.

I'm not saying these numbers CAN'T be true, but yes, I'm highly skeptical at this point until we see more correlation from established pollsters who aren't just looking for attention (yes REACHTel, I'm looking at you).

Nielsen should be out late tonight... I think it'll be pretty interesting.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/former-minister-jackie-kelly-returns-to-campaign-in-nsw-20130809-2rlup.html

LNP think they're struggling in Macquarie.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Honestly, to me, this is the most telling thing... where and how they're campaigning. I don't buy that they'd send as valuable a resource as Howard to Dobell and Robertson if they were anywhere near 8 points up. Equally, I keep being told by my ALP friends, watch Bennelong and Macquarie... over and over again.

[morgieb]

I don't get how the Liberals can be worried in Macquarie yet be winning on primary votes alone in Lindsay. Macquarie should be far more conservative than Lindsay.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Blue Mountains are not as conducive to the Libs as Western Sydney ... the demographics are very different. And the poll which had the Libs on 60% primary in Lindsay? GMAFB

[morgieb]

The Blue Mountains are not as conducive to the Libs as Western Sydney ... the demographics are very different. And the poll which had the Libs on 60% primary in Lindsay? GMAFB

Macquarie also contains the Hawkesbury River towns, which is far closer to Northern Sydney than Western Sydney politically.

Yeah, that poll was more bullsh**t than the Forde polls.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Can we PLEASE send ReachTel to the firey pits of hell? Actually, all RoboPollers...

[DL]

Can someone explain to me how it is that gay marriage is even the least bit controversial within the ALp - let alone within Australia as a whole. Same sex marriage is now legal in Canada, the UK, New Zealand, many US states, France etc... etc... and not only that but in mots of the countries being in favour of gay marriage is now almost a sine qua non of being a modern progressive/left of centre party. In Canada, there is literally NO ONE of any rank in the NDP who is against equal marriage and the last time anyone was (Bev Desjarlais) she was punished and was never renominated.

How is it that the Australian Labour Party which has done a lot of progressive things over the years and is allied with parties like the NDP and Labor in the UK and NZ and the German SPD etc... can even allow anti-gay bigots to exist in their party?? Why not simply tell them all they are persona non grata and say "god riddance" - who would shed a tear?

[DC Al Fine]

Australia is probably the most conservative nation in the Anglosphere West after the USA.

[Hatman 🍁]

Can someone explain to me how it is that gay marriage is even the least bit controversial within the ALp - let alone within Australia as a whole. Same sex marriage is now legal in Canada, the UK, New Zealand, many US states, France etc... etc... and not only that but in mots of the countries being in favour of gay marriage is now almost a sine qua non of being a modern progressive/left of centre party. In Canada, there is literally NO ONE of any rank in the NDP who is against equal marriage and the last time anyone was (Bev Desjarlais) she was punished and was never renominated.

How is it that the Australian Labour Party which has done a lot of progressive things over the years and is allied with parties like the NDP and Labor in the UK and NZ and the German SPD etc... can even allow anti-gay bigots to exist in their party?? Why not simply tell them all they are persona non grata and say "god riddance" - who would shed a tear?

Yeah. I never got why an Atheist like Gillard was anti-gay marriage. You can't make a logical non religious argument against it.

[You kip if you want to...]

can even allow anti-gay bigots to exist in their party??

Such a term is unfair!

Gillard was against gay marriage and KRudd was until very recently. I'd struggle to call either of them bigots.

[DC Al Fine]

Can someone explain to me how it is that gay marriage is even the least bit controversial within the ALp - let alone within Australia as a whole. Same sex marriage is now legal in Canada, the UK, New Zealand, many US states, France etc... etc... and not only that but in mots of the countries being in favour of gay marriage is now almost a sine qua non of being a modern progressive/left of centre party. In Canada, there is literally NO ONE of any rank in the NDP who is against equal marriage and the last time anyone was (Bev Desjarlais) she was punished and was never renominated.

How is it that the Australian Labour Party which has done a lot of progressive things over the years and is allied with parties like the NDP and Labor in the UK and NZ and the German SPD etc... can even allow anti-gay bigots to exist in their party?? Why not simply tell them all they are persona non grata and say "god riddance" - who would shed a tear?

Yeah. I never got why an Atheist like Gillard was anti-gay marriage. You can't make a logical non religious argument against it.

Hatman, you're assuming that politicians a) think out all their views and b) don't cynically espouse positions they don't actually believe in.

[Hifly]

How is it that the Australian Labour Party which has done a lot of progressive things over the years and is allied with parties like the NDP and Labor in the UK and NZ and the German SPD etc... can even allow anti-gay bigots to exist in their party?? Why not simply tell them all they are persona non grata and say "god riddance" - who would shed a tear?

Because thankfully in Australia, there are unions that not only stand up for workers rights, but also for traditional family values. Many socially conservative unionists hold very high ranking positions within the party. If Labor decides to say "good riddance" to their very numerous anti gay marriage members, there will be internal bloodshed of the highest order. It won't go down too well with voters in some Labor areas either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To point out the obvious, though it's quite obvious that everyone is already thinking this: there is no way that the published national polls and these robo-seat polls can both be accurate. Past performance and the Antique Monk doth strongly suggest which of the two realities is the real one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regarding the other issue, the ALP was shut out of government throughout the 1950s and 1960s because it's most conservative faction was thrown out of the party and decided to hit back in a fantastically spiteful manner. That sort of history is quite the incentive for not trying that type of thing again.

[DL]

Because thankfully in Australia, there are unions that not only stand up for workers rights, but also for traditional family values. Many socially conservative unionists hold very high ranking positions within the party. If Labor decides to say "good riddance" to their very numerous anti gay marriage members, there will be internal bloodshed of the highest order. It won't go down too well with voters in some Labor areas either.

In "civilized" countries like Canada, the UK, the US, New Zealand - trade unions are in the forefront leading the charge in FAVOUR of ending discrimination against gays and lesbians. In Canada the Autoworkers and the Steelworkers were 100% pro-equal marriage before it was even fashionable and my understanding is that in the UK and the US organized labour tends to now be almost unanimously pushing for an end to discrimination and LGBT people. Why are unions in Australia being left in the dust? I have seen polls on public opinion in Australia on these issues and Australians themselves seem to be far more progressive on gay equality than are their politicians.

In the case of Julia Gillard, I assume that (like Barack Obama) she has probably been privately and personally 100% in favour of equal marriage her entire adult life. She probably was just too much of an opportunist to want to be a "trailblazer" on that issue and instead wanted to wait until there was more of a national consensus.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He means the SDA, which is largely run by people with more than a vague hint of a Grouper background about them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though I should point out that there were votes in the PLP against gay marriage and there would have certainly been more if matters hadn't been pursued along the gradualist track of first introducing civil partnerships etc.

[DL]

At any rate, the momentum towards marriage equality across the western world is now so fast and so unstoppable - I give Australia 2 or 3 years at most and then Aussies won't want to feel like they are to gay-equality like what South Africa was to civil rights in the 1980s and it will quickly become a fait accompli...and 5 years from now, people will be embarrassed that it took them so long to get with the program.

[Hifly]

At any rate, the momentum towards marriage equality across the western world is now so fast and so unstoppable - I give Australia 2 or 3 years at most and then Aussies won't want to feel like they are to gay-equality like what South Africa was to civil rights in the 1980s and it will quickly become a fait accompli...and 5 years from now, people will be embarrassed that it took them so long to get with the program.

cool story bro

[Lurker]

Regarding the other issue, the ALP was shut out of government throughout the 1950s and 1960s because it's most conservative faction was thrown out of the party and decided to hit back in a fantastically spiteful manner. That sort of history is quite the incentive for not trying that type of thing again.

Yes, of course, but the question is rather why are there so unusually many anti-gay people in the ALP in the first place? Is there something about Australian culture that differs from much of the west when it comes to this?

In most western countries - and pretty much everywhere that is most comparable to Australia - Social  Democratic and centre-left parties are strongly in favour of gay marriage.

[Hifly]

An epic barrage of electorate polls has just appeared. Make of them what you will.

Reachtel:

Bennelong:  65-35 to the Libs 2PP
McMahon: 53-47 to the Libs 2PP
Kingsford Smith: 52-48 to the Libs 2PP
Blaxland: 52-48 to Labor 2PP

Newspoll:

Lyne: 59-41 to the Nats 2PP
New England: 66-34 to the Nats 2PP

JWS:

Forde: 60-40 to the Libs 2PP as discussed earlier
Brisbane: 54-46 to the Libs 2PP
Corangamite: 53.3-47.7 to the Libs 2PP
Aston: 63.4-36.6 to the Libs 2PP
Macquarie: 55-45 to the Libs 2PP
Greenway: 51-49 to Labor 2PP
Lindsay: 60.7-39.3 to the Libs 2PP not too far off from the Lonergan findings earlier
Banks: 52.8-47.2 to the Libs 2PP

Some of those look plausible.

[You kip if you want to...]

At any rate, the momentum towards marriage equality across the western world is now so fast and so unstoppable - I give Australia 2 or 3 years at most and then Aussies won't want to feel like they are to gay-equality like what South Africa was to civil rights in the 1980s and it will quickly become a fait accompli...and 5 years from now, people will be embarrassed that it took them so long to get with the program.

Let's just make one thing clear, countries in which gay marriage isn't allowed are not akin to apartheid South Africa. Full stop.

[lilTommy]

At any rate, the momentum towards marriage equality across the western world is now so fast and so unstoppable - I give Australia 2 or 3 years at most and then Aussies won't want to feel like they are to gay-equality like what South Africa was to civil rights in the 1980s and it will quickly become a fait accompli...and 5 years from now, people will be embarrassed that it took them so long to get with the program.

Let's just make one thing clear, countries in which gay marriage isn't allowed are not akin to apartheid South Africa. Full stop.

You would not say that if you were Gay. In essence, Gays are lucky they cannot be pointed out with a physical difference you can count on like skin colour. 
But they are second class citizens if rights available to others are not provided to them based solely on that one criteria. If like in Russia, they have laws designed specifically to take rights away from them or like in many 1st world countires, can't have rights extended to them.

If the ALP were two parties, i think you'd see more politicians in favour of socially progressive movements. I believe the Greens are in favour of SSM, wasn't Bob Brown a big proponent?