NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

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The Democrats won the North Carolina State Senate popular vote in 2018, which is significant because every seat was contested by the two major parties.

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Jeff Jackson officially out:

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1161680725525041153

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Cook Political Report shifts race from Likely R to Lean R:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/north-carolina-senate/tillis-moves-lean-republican

Likely R was way too generous to start with, but then I guess it was the power of Tillis' "incumbency" that put it in the Likely column.

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A candidate who raised $1 million in the ninth-largest state in the country (that is supposed to be one of the most competitive states at all levels in 2020 - President, Governor, Senate, House) and who basically has the field all to himself is pretty pathetic, no other way around it. There were certain US House candidates that raised nearly as much in the last quarter and those are much smaller constituencies. I get that Cunningham is not that well-known but it still doesn't inspire much confidence (and I think Jackson might have been a lot savvier on that front given his presence on social media and such). Democrats really need to prioritize this race, and it's just not happening.

And yeah, Schumer has been pretty feckless when it comes to recruiting. Aside from Mark Kelly, he really hasn't landed many of the top-tier recruits we often heard about at the beginning of the cycle. Hopefully, the Senate Dems can put him out of his misery and choose a different leader who doesn't blow their chances of retaking the majority.

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Special election watch.

https://twitter.com/santucci/status/1240836933359742976?s=21

Massive if true. We could see Senate control slip into the Democrat's hands at this point.