European Elections 2009 (France)

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OpinionWay, do what you wish with this thingee. It's quite a big sample (5079), but it's an interwebs poll.

Latest France EU poll by Opinion Way (May 11)

UMP 27% (-1)
PS 22% (-1)
MoDem 13% (+1)
Greenies 9% (-1)
FN 7% (+1)
NPA 7% (nc)
PCF-PG 5% (nc)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
AEI 1% (new)
Others 1% (-2)

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/OpinionWay_europ_2.pdf

Random junk: 52% are not interested, 47% are interested (60% of UMP voters are interested, lowest is 46% interest with Greenies and FN).
51% say Europe is good (62 of PS, 63 of Greenies, 68 of MoDem, 74 of UMP, 44 of NPA, 19 of FN)
67% are opposed to Turkey in Europe (45 of NPA, 53 of PS, 48 of Greenies, 71 of MoDem, 81 of UMP, 92 of FN)

[Antonio the Sixth]

92 of FN

Wow !

Who are these proud 8% ?

[big bad fab]

92 of FN

Wow !

Who are these proud 8% ?

Statistical margin of error...

[Antonio the Sixth]

92 of FN

Wow !

Who are these proud 8% ?

Statistical margin of error...

Yes, but 8/100*7/100*5079=28.
That means 28 people that declare wanting to vote for the FN support the entry of Turkey in the EU...

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92 of FN

Wow !

Who are these proud 8% ?

Statistical margin of error...

Yes, but 8/100*7/100*5079=28.
That means 28 people that declare wanting to vote for the FN support the entry of Turkey in the EU...

Actually, 25% did not express voting intentions, which would give around 1,270 (rounded) people declaring voting intentions, 89 (rounded) of which vote for the FN, of which seven favour Turkey in the EU. 7 out of 5,079 is tiny.

But Gallo is the only GM to get elected. I mean UMP is going to get 4 seats in IDF.

Striffler could win too, depending of the UMP's performance in the East.

[big bad fab]

92 of FN

Wow !

Who are these proud 8% ?

Statistical margin of error...

Yes, but 8/100*7/100*5079=28.
That means 28 people that declare wanting to vote for the FN support the entry of Turkey in the EU...

Actually, 25% did not express voting intentions, which would give around 1,270 (rounded) people declaring voting intentions, 89 (rounded) of which vote for the FN, of which seven favour Turkey in the EU. 7 out of 5,079 is tiny.

Maybe, Gollnisch's family, just to have bad numbers for the FN and to be able to criticize Marine's influence...

[big bad fab]

But Gallo is the only GM to get elected. I mean UMP is going to get 4 seats in IDF.

Striffler could win too, depending of the UMP's performance in the East.

Rather, in IdF, UMP will have 3 seats, but Barnier will be designated EU commissionner or Dati will resign in 6 months and, then, Mrs Gallo will be MEP...

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But Gallo is the only GM to get elected. I mean UMP is going to get 4 seats in IDF.

Striffler could win too, depending of the UMP's performance in the East.

Rather, in IdF, UMP will have 3 seats, but Barnier will be designated EU commissionner or Dati will resign in 6 months and, then, Mrs Gallo will be MEP...

FrancePolitique predicts 5 UMP (based on Sarkozy's 34% in 2007), but 5 is obviously too much. Four is probably stretching it too.

However, a CSA (lol uber lol) poll in IdF for DLR gave the UMP 34%, PS 18%, Greenies 15%, MoDem 11%, DLR 4%, NPA 3%, Libertas 2%. But the numbers prove it's a total joke poll worst than anything they've ever done in life.

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CSA has some crap out, which they basically copied from reliable pollsters.

UMP 28% (+1)
PS 22% (-3)
MoDem 13% (+1)
Greenies 10% (nc)
FN 6% (-2)
Libertas 5% (nc)
NPA 5% (-2)
Left 4% (+1)
LO 2% (nc)
AEI 2% (+2)
DLR 1% (nc)
Others 2%

I wouldn't trust CSA, so I would wait for Ipsos or Ifop to confirm if the NPA's decline is continuing.

I have no clue why these idiots give the Left only 4%, which is much lower than what the real pollsters give them. And especially if the NPA is going under, you could expect the Left to gain, which is what Ipsos and Ifop have showed in their recent polling.

The NPA has a very weak organization and quasi-zero structure as a real political party, and, like the FN, low turnout will significantly hurt them. And since turnout this year is going to be awful, the NPA might just get 0 seats.

For reference, the AEI is the other ecolo alliance formed by Waechter's MEI, the remnants of Lalonde's GE and the France en action scientologist/raëlian kooky sect. Its candidates include Waechter (East) and a signer, Francis Lalanne in the South-West. Before people go crazy over the AEI, a few notes. On the 23rd spot on Lalanne's list is Jean Brière, a former Greenie expelled for being anti-semitic and I think holocaust denier. People have also accused Waechter and the MEI of being closet far-rightists. He's also very egomaniacal, even by French standards.

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Random pollster called Viavoice for Libé (the leftie newspaper with an editor who likes to think he lives in the Kingdom of France).

UMP 27%
PS 22%
MoDem 13%
Greenies 9%
FN 6%
NPA 6%
Left 6%
Libertas 5%
LO 2%
DLR 2%
Others 2%

I have no clue who these people are, but these numbers don't seem that bad. Either they're good or they copy other pollsters ARG-style. It's interesting to see the NPA down, and the Left Front tied with them makes perfect sense in this case, unlike CSA's crap.

TNS-Sofres in IdF. TNS-Sofres hasn't done any polls this election, which is surprising. They're a relatively good-ish pollster, but I never liked constituency polls (please see Canadian constituency polling for why). Though this poll has a decent sample (1,000).

UMP 33%
PS 21.5%
Greenies 14%
MoDem 12%
Left 5.5%
FN 4%
NPA 3%
AEI 3%
Libertas 1%
LO 1%
AL 0.5%
Anti-Zionist 0.5%
DLR 0.5%
Esperanto people 0.5%

Seat simulation:

UMP 5 (+2)
PS 3 (-2)
Greenies 2 (+1)
MoDem 2 (nc)
Left 1 (nc)
FN 0 (-1)
Paul-Marie Coûteaux 0 (-1)

Coûteaux is not running on either Libertas (he's opposed to that) or his RIF party, btw.

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MEPs based on simulation

UMP

1 – Michel Barnier: Minister of Agriculture
2 – Rachida Dati (Paris): Minister of Justice, Paris municipal councillor and Mayor of Paris-7
3 - Jean-Marie Cavada (Paris): MEP, NC/ACDE
4 - Marielle Gallo (Paris): Modern Left
5 - Philippe Juvin (Hauts-de-Seine): Mayor of Garenne-Colombes and VP of the CG92.

PS

1. Harlem Désir, MEP
2. Pervenche Berès, MEP
3. Benoît Hamon, MEP (Est)

MoDem

1. Marielle de Sarnez, MEP
2. Bernard Lehideux, MEP

Greenies

1. The "German anarchist"
2. Eva Joly

PCF

1. Patrick Le Hyaric, carpetbagger (PCF)

[Antonio the Sixth]

MEPs based on simulation

UMP

1 – Michel Barnier: Minister of Agriculture
2 – Rachida Dati (Paris): Minister of Justice, Paris municipal councillor and Mayor of Paris-7
3 - Jean-Marie Cavada (Paris): MEP, NC/ACDE
4 - Marielle Gallo (Paris): Modern Left
5 - Philippe Juvin (Hauts-de-Seine): Mayor of Garenne-Colombes and VP of the CG92.

PS

1. Harlem Désir, MEP
2. Pervenche Berès, MEP
3. Benoît Hamon, MEP (Est)

MoDem

1. Marielle de Sarnez, MEP
2. Bernard Lehideux, MEP

Greenies

1. The "German anarchist"
2. Eva Joly

PCF

1. Patrick Le Hyaric, carpetbagger (PCF)

That means left still gets more seats than right here.

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MEPs based on simulation

UMP

1 – Michel Barnier: Minister of Agriculture
2 – Rachida Dati (Paris): Minister of Justice, Paris municipal councillor and Mayor of Paris-7
3 - Jean-Marie Cavada (Paris): MEP, NC/ACDE
4 - Marielle Gallo (Paris): Modern Left
5 - Philippe Juvin (Hauts-de-Seine): Mayor of Garenne-Colombes and VP of the CG92.

PS

1. Harlem Désir, MEP
2. Pervenche Berès, MEP
3. Benoît Hamon, MEP (Est)

MoDem

1. Marielle de Sarnez, MEP
2. Bernard Lehideux, MEP

Greenies

1. The "German anarchist"
2. Eva Joly

PCF

1. Patrick Le Hyaric, carpetbagger (PCF)

That means left still gets more seats than right here.

The combined left will do better nationally than it did in 2004, oh the irony.

[big bad fab]

ViaVoice is a society which makes studies, inquiries, surveys first on commercial, social, business themes.

The head of their political departement is François Miquet-Marty, formerly at LH2, a rather leftist pollster, accustomed to work for Libération.

I don't know which method they use.

For the moment, let's consider ViaVoice as the left OpinionWay.... in the sense that neither has yet a real credibility (despite the fact that OpinionWay may be better than CSA -not too difficult, granted...- and LH2, and even BVA).

In her memoirs, Royal is harsh against OpinionWay, IPSOS, IFOP and CSA for being favorable to Sarkozy. But she has a bad memory or she has made a confusion between

- rather rightist BUT accurate pollsters (IPSOS)

- just accurate pollsters (IFOP), but she forgot that Sarkozy won in the reality

- pollsters (OpinionWay) used by rightist medias at the right time to spin

- junk pollsters (CSA) but who weren't Sarkozyst but Bayrouist (indeed, CSA was the only one to put Bayrou ahead of Royal; we will never know if it were real... but when you see CSA always overestimating the FN, underestimating the UMP and (a bit) the PS....and when you know CSA needed to make people talk about it again in order to gain markets....).

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CSA for being favorable to Sarkozy.

CSA's last poll in 2007:

Sarkozy 26.5
Royal 25.5
Le Pen 16.5
Bayrou 16
Others 15.5

Oh, Royal, you're so dumb.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Le Pen 16.5

Wow. They underestimate Le Pen when he's going to be qualified, and overestimate him when he's beginning to die killed by Sarkozy...

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Le Pen 16.5

Wow. They underestimate Le Pen when he's going to be qualified, and overestimate him when he's beginning to die killed by Sarkozy...

CSA is made of fail naturally. But the pollsters used unholy weighting methods and toyed around with Le Pen numbers in an attempt to boost his numbers since they thought he'd poll like 16-20%.  All pollsters overestimated Le Pen, but CSA was the worst.

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Ifop poll in the Sud-Ouest

UMP 23.5% (pred. 3 seats)
PS 23% (pred. 3 seats)
MoDem 13% (pred. 1 seat)
Greenies 8.5% (pred. 1 seat)
Left 7% (pred. 0-1 seat if NPA doesn't get it)
NPA 7% (pred. 0-1 seat if Left doesn't get it)
FN 5.5%
Libertas 5%
AEI 3%
LO 2%
CNIP 1%
Other (FNd, AL, DLR) 1.5%

http://www.sudouest.com/fileadmin/documents/090517SOD.pdf

Some numbers look a bit fishy. For example- FN numbers in Aqutaine: 1%

[big bad fab]

Ifop poll in the Sud-Ouest

UMP 23.5% (pred. 3 seats)
PS 23% (pred. 3 seats)
MoDem 13% (pred. 1 seat)
Greenies 8.5% (pred. 1 seat)
Left 7% (pred. 0-1 seat if NPA doesn't get it)
NPA 7% (pred. 0-1 seat if Left doesn't get it)
FN 5.5%
Libertas 5%
AEI 3%
LO 2%
CNIP 1%
Other (FNd, AL, DLR) 1.5%

http://www.sudouest.com/fileadmin/documents/090517SOD.pdf

Some numbers look a bit fishy. For example- FN numbers in Aqutaine: 1%

And the PS in Midi-Pyrénées, its strongest region in France with 18 %, on a par with MoDem and in comparison with 30 % in Aquitaine !!!
Bayrou's party would make only 12 % in Aquitaine.

Too few people questionned...

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Ifop poll in the Sud-Ouest

UMP 23.5% (pred. 3 seats)
PS 23% (pred. 3 seats)
MoDem 13% (pred. 1 seat)
Greenies 8.5% (pred. 1 seat)
Left 7% (pred. 0-1 seat if NPA doesn't get it)
NPA 7% (pred. 0-1 seat if Left doesn't get it)
FN 5.5%
Libertas 5%
AEI 3%
LO 2%
CNIP 1%
Other (FNd, AL, DLR) 1.5%

http://www.sudouest.com/fileadmin/documents/090517SOD.pdf

Some numbers look a bit fishy. For example- FN numbers in Aqutaine: 1%

And the PS in Midi-Pyrénées, its strongest region in France with 18 %, on a par with MoDem and in comparison with 30 % in Aquitaine !!!
Bayrou's party would make only 12 % in Aquitaine.

Too few people questionned...

I think it's like 700 people. I don't know if the 700 are just 700 certain-to-vote people or 700 random voters, of which half are certain to vote.

Crosstabs are really ed up. Their samples in regions seem pretty ed up.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Outside of polls...

Bayrou is doing a pretty good campaign in media, he's really on the line of the "follower of De Gaulle", the one who would ensure the transmission of the universal heritage of France. We can feel some sincerity in his words, in our ambiance it can work.

More of that, I think that people who vote for Bayrou are through those who use to vote at every elections and especially at European ones. Plus, the fact he appears as being the most credible alternative to PS and UMP, and that he has a kind of "anti-system" attitude, makes that he can gather around his list people those who want to show their discontent of the 2 major parties.

Clearly, Bayrou could go high in this election, the Greenies-Bové are quite silent today in the media, and the leaders of this list, Cohn Bendit and Bové could appear as too much radical compared to Bayrou for those who just want to show their discontent toward the major party they used to vote for.

I heard PS feared that even Hamon could not be elected.

Damn, if ever they could take a slap to awake.

Anyways, seems UMP is going to win by enough far. If so, a very big error for them would be to think this victory gives them more legitimacy to pass unpopular reforms. They will have to be very smart...

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Bayrou is doing a pretty good campaign in media, he's really on the line of the "follower of De Gaulle"

Oh, the irony. Oh, the irony.

But nobody cares.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou is doing a pretty good campaign in media, he's really on the line of the "follower of De Gaulle"

Oh, the irony. Oh, the irony.

But nobody cares.

Actually he's pretty good in this role, and he's the only one who is heard in media until now.

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Bayrou is doing a pretty good campaign in media, he's really on the line of the "follower of De Gaulle"

Oh, the irony. Oh, the irony.

But nobody cares.

Actually he's pretty good in this role, and he's the only one who is heard in media until now.

He's good because he's a flip-flopper.

[big bad fab]

Bayrou is doing a pretty good campaign in media, he's really on the line of the "follower of De Gaulle"

Oh, the irony. Oh, the irony.

But nobody cares.

Actually he's pretty good in this role, and he's the only one who is heard in media until now.

He's good because he's a flip-flopper.

A big flip-flopper indeed, one of the most traditional sellers of the "pensée unique" during the 1980s and 1990s, and now a so-called "anti-establishment" candidate.

And he's good because French medias (because they want "stories" to tell, "fightings" and they hate classical bipartism as it is boring and doesn't make you viewing what they broadcast),

but also French people need a "trublion", a trouble-maker (even if it's a false one), to express anger:

Poujade, Marchais, Le Pen, Bové, Laguiller, Besancenot all the time,

and during presidential campaigns,
Juquin in 1988, Chirac himself in 1995, Chevènement in 2002, Bayrou in 2007.

Bayrou has this "tribunicien" role.

Of course, there are obvious political reasons for his success, too:
- the big mistake from the right to try to have only one big party, not granting enough political room for the centre-right,
- the personal clashes inside the PS,
- Greens that are more and more on the left and who lost their centrist voters (and their "centrist" leaders, Lalonde, Waechter)