Based on the numbers, it looks like the Democratic turnout for the caucuses is going to double the Republicans. Maybe the typical Iowa Republican just cares less about politics than the typical Iowa Democrat, but this is a 50/50 state in general elections, that is a huge difference. What is everyone's opinion on this?
We're screwed. Unless we nominate McCain, but the base would not come out for him.
That assumption is not backed up by any polls that I know of.
They hate him because of McCain/Feingold and they don't trust him on immigration. Don’t get me wrong, I think he could beat Clinton but I’m not too sure about Obama. I’m starting to think the man is destined to be president. He's a compromise choice whereas Obama is someone the Democrats seem really excited about, and their's not as much of an energy to keep him out of the white house as their is with Clinton.
But hey, I predicted a third place finish for Paul, so I don't really have a good track record here.
Huckabee and Obama are both populists, so if both of them are on the ticket come November, it should make too much of a difference overall in how the country is ran. Both speak well and bring a positive message, and I find this to be one of the interesting variables for predicting how the states will vote. We could easily see a complete shift of the EV map, and that causes me to laugh when I read people saying almost too confidently that Huckabee can't beat Obama... since it's impossible to tell at this early stage.
