Utah - Salt Lake City Tribune/Hinkley/Dan Jones: Trump +9

[Fubart Solman]

If we assume that McMullin does in fact get 12% of Utah, that would give him about 122,000 votes in Utah (assuming the 2012 population, which may not be accurate). If you take that nationwide, that gives about 0.09% of the nationwide popular vote. Figure another 20,000 from Idaho and maybe another 100,000 nationwide, and McMuffin could get a whopping 0.18% nationwide.

[Fubart Solman]

Anyone else think that Trump's weakness with Mormons might hurt him in a certain other state that he he actually could lose? (Relax, guys, I'm talking about Arizona )

It might hurt him a point or two on the margins in AZ, considering that Mormon's are 4% of the state and maybe 5-6% of the electorate ().

We haven't seen much recent poll from AZ, but if we take the weighted Marist poll and the Insights West poll, it's looking like the state is +4-6 Trump potentially based upon these orgs LV screen models.

I can't see it making a difference unless it comes down to a narrow race, in which case other demographics Latino voters, Millennials, Senior SoCal retirees, etc are playing a major role.

It might make the difference in NV however, if recent polls are to be believed and it's basically a neck-and-neck race there...

McMullin isn't on the ballot in NV or AZ, unfortunately.

[Fubart Solman]

Anyone else think that Trump's weakness with Mormons might hurt him in a certain other state that he he actually could lose? (Relax, guys, I'm talking about Arizona )

It might hurt him a point or two on the margins in AZ, considering that Mormon's are 4% of the state and maybe 5-6% of the electorate ().

We haven't seen much recent poll from AZ, but if we take the weighted Marist poll and the Insights West poll, it's looking like the state is +4-6 Trump potentially based upon these orgs LV screen models.

I can't see it making a difference unless it comes down to a narrow race, in which case other demographics Latino voters, Millennials, Senior SoCal retirees, etc are playing a major role.

It might make the difference in NV however, if recent polls are to be believed and it's basically a neck-and-neck race there...

McMullin isn't on the ballot in NV or AZ, unfortunately.

So at most 1% on the margins towards Lib or the case of Nevada Non-of-the-above???

From what I understand, and correct me if I'm wrong, Mormons believe in voting, regardless of if their votes are for 3rd party candidates.

Not Mormon either, but my understanding is that they have a strong belief in doing their civic duties, including voting.

NOTA in Nevada will be interesting to watch. Lincoln County, NV (which looks like a backwards Utah) should be especially interesting, as it has one of the highest concentrations of Mormons in Nevada.