Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1044424766889906176

let the hype begin!

WRONG!

Just got my absentee ballot in the mail today, and will be sending off in the next day or two:
*snip*

Damn it, you ruined the suspense! I had you pegged as a Kemp voter

[Devout Centrist]

Kansas mailed ballots (as of 8:00 AM on 10/17):

128,220 Sent (compared to 133,822 in 2016; 89,285 in 2014)

GOP - 51,558 (40.21%)
DEM - 51,326 (40.02%)
UNA - 24,665 (19.24%)
LIB - 670 (0.53%)

Whoa. I can't imagine this is anywhere near typical in Kansas, right?

Just eyeballing 2016 Party Affiliation numbers, Republicans had 807,912 registered voters, Democrats had 450,265, and NPA had a total of 544,194...Libertarians were at 15,556.

Even assuming that postal ballots skew Democratic, this is definitely not a good sign for the Kansas GOP.

[Devout Centrist]

I have a sneaking suspicion that the Election Day vote in Georgia this year will be much closer than 2014 and closer than 2016.

[Devout Centrist]

In 2016's first week of early voting, Democrats cast 42.42% of Washoe county's combined early vote.

On the first day this year, that percentage is 44.21%. Not good early indications for Dean Heller,

[Devout Centrist]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

Wow, Harry Reid is doomed

[Devout Centrist]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

Even though their % lead dropped.

That AZ Guy acting like every GOP Female Voter would vote for Sinema. Highly unlikely.

That 20 point Republican mail-in lead for Debbie Lesko turned into a 5-point margin of victory...if the same thing happens statewide, it’ll be a 5-point victory for Sinema.

[Devout Centrist]

While everyone was freaking out about the "Dems in disarray" in Nevada because they're not leading by enough, Democrats gained a couple hundred votes thanks to absentees in Clark. Statewide lead is 3.4K. We'll see if they get to 15K statewide, but the way Independents have been voting this year, I'm not sure they'll need to.

Maybe I'm the idiot and am missing something incredibly obvious here, but as you said, I don't see why Dems need a ridiculously gaudy vote margin otherwise the Unbeatable Titan is inevitable. They ended up needing it in 2016, but that was because independents broke heavily for Trump. The idea that they'd need it again seems to be predicated upon the assumption that they will also break heavily for Heller, which...is certainly not a safe one.

You're not - eight pages later and people are still freaking out about NV.

Trump won independents by 13 points. NV Dems this cycle can easily win indies by 15-20. Democrats could have a measly 2-point party ID advantage in the total vote and still pull a 7-10 point win with a 20-point lead among indies.

Holy sh[inks]t, thank you Adam for saying exactly what needed to be said! Crying out loud, Trump won independents by 6 nationally back in 2016...you think there's gonna be a repeat of that this year??

[Devout Centrist]

Note that early voting is up the most in Tarrant, Williamson, Hays, Brazos, Denton, and Collin counties.

All of these counties voted for Trump...but they have something else in common...what could it be??

[Devout Centrist]

You folks realize that the incumbent governor only won by a point in 2014, right?

[Devout Centrist]

Yesterday, I asked my friend yesterday why they hadn't mailed their ballot yet. Apparently, they didn't want it to get lost, so they were going to drop it off at an early voting center. Maybe that's had an effect on these numbers

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058228948364980224
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058229395268104193
Now will you please calm the f[ink]k down??

[Devout Centrist]

Washoe dropped, 13,187 votes today...about 55k total. Dems lead looks to be 1141 right now.

[Devout Centrist]

I decided to try to pry numbers out of Washoe's spreadsheet. These may not be accurate because it is a massive spreadsheet, but I think these are right.

13,948 total votes:
5754 Democrats
4676 GOP
3518 NPA/Other/etc

So Dems net 1078 out of Washoe.

Ralston confirms:
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058617158215753728

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058726829773582336

[Devout Centrist]

What would tip the balance in favor of Heller?

Very simple really, he just has to win independents by 15