NV-4: Rep. Ruben Kihuen accused of sexual harassment, announces retirement

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Ya god forbid we let the investigation go to its' conclusion before forcing someone to resign for something they deny.

Like goddamn in what world are accusations the same as convictions.

When like 8 unrelated women come forward, all of whom have had definite close contact with him, its incredibly unlikely that he didn't do it, esp considering how quickly and easily the fake accusations against Blumenthol and Schumer fell, and how little the word spread.

[MAINEiac4434]

Ex-Rep. Hardy considering jumping into the race.

Cresent is a dumb name.

[GoTfan]

One article says Cancela, Pat Spearman and John Lee might run.

Can Vilela beat them?

[Cactus Jack]

One article says Cancela, Pat Spearman and John Lee might run.

Can Vilela beat them?

Cancela and Spearman would probably cut into Vilela's bases significantly, since they're both women and and both established progressive entities in Nevada (with Cancela having the added benefit of also being Latina). Lee vs. Vilela would be interesting, though, since Lee is very much a member of the establishment Vegas business class, a la Cloobeck.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ex-Rep. Hardy considering jumping into the race.

Cresent is a dumb name.

I think it's a pretty cool name actually (though Hardy is still a joke).

[Zioneer]

Pat Spearman running and winning would be interesting, considering she's a black, lesbian, military vet ordained reverend.

[Cactus Jack]

Pat Spearman running and winning would be interesting, considering she's a black, lesbian, military vet ordained reverend.

So what you're saying is that Vilela, Cancela, and Spearman would all make the Trump base s**t nickels.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Glorious news! This congressmen was already corrupt as hell so it's good to know he was also a sexual assaulter. Gives Viela a wonderful chance to win now as a Justice Democrat!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

One article says Cancela, Pat Spearman and John Lee might run.

Can Vilela beat them?

Probably not except in a one-on-one against Lee (ironically a one-on-one with Villela is probably also Lee's only shot at this seat).  Lee is something of a ConservaDem (IIRC) who would do badly not only with the more activist wing, but also with unions, the party establishment (although I doubt they'd be big on Villela either), and more mainstream liberals.  Aside from maybe the party establishment, I think all those groups would be all-in for Villela if Lee was the only alternative.  That said, I could also see a scenario where in a one-on-one Lee wipes the floor with Villela.  O/c, I highly doubt Lee and Villela will be the only candidates.

Steven Horsford probably has right of first refusal here and would absolutely wipe the floor with Villela.  That said, I don't think Horsford wants it.  He's supposedly pretty content with his current position, doesn't seem terribly interested, and per Ralston has had some sort of health issues.  Spearman would likely finish ahead of Villela too even in a divided field, but I think the strongest GE candidate and likely winner of the primary if she runs is Cancela.  Assuming Horsford doesn't run, this seat is probably Cancela's if she wants it. 

Villela's best shot is for Kihuen to resign and to then be chosen the activist wing (if they can takeover some of the internal Clark County/state party machinery) to fill out the rest of Kihuen's term.  The primary still wouldn't be a sure thing and Villela would likely lose pretty badly if the Reid machine decided to run Cancela, Horsford, or probably even Spearman, but at least there would be a chance of incumbency reducing the risk of a primary challenge.  As things stand, if Kihuen doesn't resign, it won't be just a Villela vs. Lee contest, so Villela probably doesn't have a path to victory. 

In any event, the Reid machine isn't gonna just give this seat away for free to a random some dude Justice Dem.  Ultimately, I think Villela will end up being a non-factor in the race as some combination of Lee, Spearman, and Cancela run with the winner of the primary being either Cancela or Horsford (I doubt both run, but I'd be surprised if neither does) by a pretty wide margin.  In the event neither do run, the Reid machine will simply pick someone else.

[YE]

One article says Cancela, Pat Spearman and John Lee might run.

Can Vilela beat them?

Probably not except in a one-on-one against Lee (ironically a one-on-one with Villela is probably also Lee's only shot at this seat).  Lee is something of a ConservaDem (IIRC) who would do badly not only with the more activist wing, but also with unions, the party establishment (although I doubt they'd be big on Villela either), and more mainstream liberals.  Aside from maybe the party establishment, I think all those groups would be all-in for Villela if Lee was the only alternative.  That said, I could also see a scenario where in a one-on-one Lee wipes the floor with Villela.  O/c, I highly doubt Lee and Villela will be the only candidates.

Steven Horsford probably has right of first refusal here and would absolutely wipe the floor with Villela.  That said, I don't think Horsford wants it.  He's supposedly pretty content with his current position, doesn't seem terribly interested, and per Ralston has had some sort of health issues.  Spearman would likely finish ahead of Villela too even in a divided field, but I think the strongest GE candidate and likely winner of the primary if she runs is Cancela.  Assuming Horsford doesn't run, this seat is probably Cancela's if she wants it. 

Villela's best shot is for Kihuen to resign and to then be chosen the activist wing (if they can takeover some of the internal Clark County/state party machinery) to fill out the rest of Kihuen's term.  The primary still wouldn't be a sure thing and Villela would likely lose pretty badly if the Reid machine decided to run Cancela, Horsford, or probably even Spearman, but at least there would be a chance of incumbency reducing the risk of a primary challenge.  As things stand, if Kihuen doesn't resign, it won't be just a Villela vs. Lee contest, so Villela probably doesn't have a path to victory. 

In any event, the Reid machine isn't gonna just give this seat away for free to a random some dude Justice Dem.  Ultimately, I think Villela will end up being a non-factor in the race as some combination of Lee, Spearman, and Cancela run with the winner of the primary being either Cancela or Horsford (I doubt both run, but I'd be surprised if neither does) by a pretty wide margin.  In the event neither do run, the Reid machine will simply pick someone else.

From left to right, it goes  Villela > Cancela > Sperman > Lee. Although I think Villela may have an outside shot if it's Lee vs. Sperman vs. Vilela, largely because Lee and Sperman will likely take the Clinton vote, while Vilela becomes the Berniecrat, I can't find CD data for the 2016 causes and I doubt Bernie preformed well there. If the Reid machine was smart, they'd just let Vilela win this thing, since Vilela can definitely win the general in this environment, but Reid wants someone who can do his bidding in Congress. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

One article says Cancela, Pat Spearman and John Lee might run.

Can Vilela beat them?

Probably not except in a one-on-one against Lee (ironically a one-on-one with Villela is probably also Lee's only shot at this seat).  Lee is something of a ConservaDem (IIRC) who would do badly not only with the more activist wing, but also with unions, the party establishment (although I doubt they'd be big on Villela either), and more mainstream liberals.  Aside from maybe the party establishment, I think all those groups would be all-in for Villela if Lee was the only alternative.  That said, I could also see a scenario where in a one-on-one Lee wipes the floor with Villela.  O/c, I highly doubt Lee and Villela will be the only candidates.

Steven Horsford probably has right of first refusal here and would absolutely wipe the floor with Villela.  That said, I don't think Horsford wants it.  He's supposedly pretty content with his current position, doesn't seem terribly interested, and per Ralston has had some sort of health issues.  Spearman would likely finish ahead of Villela too even in a divided field, but I think the strongest GE candidate and likely winner of the primary if she runs is Cancela.  Assuming Horsford doesn't run, this seat is probably Cancela's if she wants it. 

Villela's best shot is for Kihuen to resign and to then be chosen the activist wing (if they can takeover some of the internal Clark County/state party machinery) to fill out the rest of Kihuen's term.  The primary still wouldn't be a sure thing and Villela would likely lose pretty badly if the Reid machine decided to run Cancela, Horsford, or probably even Spearman, but at least there would be a chance of incumbency reducing the risk of a primary challenge.  As things stand, if Kihuen doesn't resign, it won't be just a Villela vs. Lee contest, so Villela probably doesn't have a path to victory. 

In any event, the Reid machine isn't gonna just give this seat away for free to a random some dude Justice Dem.  Ultimately, I think Villela will end up being a non-factor in the race as some combination of Lee, Spearman, and Cancela run with the winner of the primary being either Cancela or Horsford (I doubt both run, but I'd be surprised if neither does) by a pretty wide margin.  In the event neither do run, the Reid machine will simply pick someone else.

From left to right, it goes  Villela > Cancela > Sperman > Lee. Although I think Villela may have an outside shot if it's Lee vs. Sperman vs. Vilela, largely because Lee and Sperman will likely take the Clinton vote, while Vilela becomes the Berniecrat, I can't find CD data for the 2016 causes and I doubt Bernie preformed well there. If the Reid machine was smart, they'd just let Vilela win this thing, since Vilela can definitely win the general in this environment, but Reid wants someone who can do his bidding in Congress. 

If that happens, the Reid machine will throw its full weight behind Spearman, Lee will probably drop out again and Villela will lose badly either way.  Folks need to stop acting like every primary is a Berniecrat vs. Clintonite proxy battle.  That primary ended last year and the party really isn't divided along those lines anymore.  Honestly, the Clintons really aren't even relevant anymore no matter how much some of the more fringe Sanders supporters wish they still had Hillary to kick around (for my part, I'm glad the party's finally rid of her and don't get why some Berniecrats keep trying to pretend that the Clintons still have any real pull in the Democratic Party).