You're being awfully generous to Democrats for being a blue avatar. I still think OK and VT are Likely R (Scott might even be safe), MD is Lean R in most circles, and MI and NV are pure tossups.
Governor races are harder to predict than Senate races, and seem to be far more prone to "wild" swings. I'm also NOT one to be too optimistic in ratings.
OK: Can be prone to VERY wild swings. See also: The recent special elections.
MD: A lot can change. Also, unlike Baker and Scott in MA and VT (both states are also FAR more friendly to Rockefeller Republican governors), he has embraced certain aspects of Trumpism (like the travel ban, withdrawal from Paris Accords).
NV: GOP has had control here since 1998, and the state's demographics are changing, and the D machine/ground game is stronger than the R one.
MI: Schuette is boring as hell and insanely overrated. I wouldn't vote for him in the primary if I lived there, and if he won the primary, I'd support a third party candidate in the general. Michigan also has a VERY long streak of alternating between the two parties for Governor, I expect the next two governors to continue that.
VT: Scott has to share the ballot with Bernie. It won't doom him, and he starts out favored, but that will be more problematic than many think. Hardcore Bernie Bros aren't going to split their tickets.
Does the green in AK represent a Gov Walker lead, or a tossup?
I have it as a tossup (for now).
