Canada 2011 Official Thread

[minionofmidas]

The Angus Reid poll has Harper's approval at 36%-50%... in a normal political system he'd be headed to a landslide loss.

Clear majorities would also be dissatisfied with either a Tory minority or majority government. Though a Lib-NDP coalition is also only slightly more popular and a Lib-NDP-Bloc coalition is opposed by 60% of the country.

Looks like they should just form a Grand Coalition.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Angus Reid poll has Harper's approval at 36%-50%... in a normal political system he'd be headed to a landslide loss.

Ignatieff has the Michael Howard problem - the PM is hated, but you're hated even more.

[Verily]

And... Nanos puts the NDP in second. On a big swing, too. I think that makes every significant pollster showing the NDP in second. (Anyone know what happened to Harris-Decima?)

CON: 37.8 (-1.4)
NDP: 27.8 (+4.2)
LIB: 22.9 (-2.7)
BQ: 5.8 (-0.7)
GRN: 4.7 (+1.1)

[Verily]

Quebec:

NDP: 36.5 (+6.3)
BQ: 24.2 (-3.2)
LIB: 20.3 (-1.9)
CON: 13.6 (-0.5)
GRN: 2.0 (-0.3)

[Meeker]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoHuxpa4h48

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm believing it now.

[Meeker]

It looks like the NDP has finally started making gains in Ontario too:

CON: 46.9% (-0.9)
LIB: 25.7% (-3.6)
NDP: 21.0% (+4.1)
GRN: 6.0% (+0.6)

[You kip if you want to...]

Any seat calculators?

[Meeker]

None of the seat calculators out there were designed to take into account the NDP gains in Quebec and no one really knows how those are going to manifest themselves, but it's difficult to imagine the NDP not becoming official opposition with numbers like these.

[Hash]

Dears, riding polls in Quebec have been proven to be worse than useless. You'll remember Jonquiere-Alma and Roberval's polls in 2008.

[Holmes]

Maybe the gains in Ontario are enough to hold on to Sault-Ste-Marie, and pick up a seat or two in Toronto, but I don't see much room for growth elsewhere. Southern Ontario sans Toronto is pretty solidly Conservative and I imagine people still have a bad taste in their mouth from Bob Rae. Maybe if they surpass the Liberals, they might have a shot at Kenora?

[Linus Van Pelt]

Maybe the gains in Ontario are enough to hold on to Sault-Ste-Marie, and pick up a seat or two in Toronto, but I don't see much room for growth elsewhere. Southern Ontario sans Toronto is pretty solidly Conservative and I imagine people still have a bad taste in their mouth from Bob Rae. Maybe if they surpass the Liberals, they might have a shot at Kenora?

There's a bunch of seats in the blue-collar southwest outside the core union cities where the Liberal tradition was surprisingly strong in 2008 - the NDP shouldn't really be third in Brant, Cambridge, Essex, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Haldimand-Norfolk, etc. I doubt any of them will fall with the Conservatives in the 40's in the province, but I could see the NDP moving into a clear second.

[Lief 🗽]

NDP with a big lead in Hull-Aylmer (swing from 2008):

NDP : 42% (+22)
Lib : 29% (-8)
Bloc : 13% (-9)
CPC : 11% (-4)
Green : 2% (-3)

link

[minionofmidas]

Nice.

Can't wait for polling day. Can't comment much on here - I fear I might jinx things.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This guy who seems to style himself as the Canadian Nate Silver is skeptical of the NDP's sudden surge. Anyone care to comment on his projection? I don't know much about Canadian politics, but it seems like his model isn't geared to a fast-changing, six-week campaign; the Nate Silver model seems to be more suited to a lot of polling over the course of months.

[Linus Van Pelt]

This guy who seems to style himself as the Canadian Nate Silver

That's the first problem right there - remember how Silver, being actually quite statistically literate, always allows that different outcomes have different probabilities instead of producing a single exact projection.

These projections, especially ones from Grénier, basically get destroyed in the current post (linked earlier in this thread I believe) from Alice Funke at the Pundits Guide, who is a way better and more numerate commentator. The key quote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This particular thing apparently was changed after it was exposed, but it should give a general idea of the mathematical rigour of this guy's site.

None of this is to deny, mind, that the NDP could very well underperform the polls due to its lack of ground organization in Quebec. But we shouldn't weight the advice of someone who produces these projections any more than anyone else on a question like this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

These projections, especially ones from Grénier, basically get destroyed in the current post (linked earlier in this thread I believe) from Alice Funke at the Pundits Guide, who is a way better and more numerate commentator.

It was a few pages back, so in case anyone missed it: http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/04/rubber-hits-the-road-for-parties-and-seat-projectors/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Thanks. I also noticed his prediction for the New Brunswick elections was hideously off.

[Verily]

Forum Research
CON: 34 (-2)
NDP: 31 (+6)
LIB: 22 (-1)
GRN: 7 (+1)
BQ: 6 (nc)

No comment.


Also, Quebec:
NDP: 40
BQ: 23
LIB: 16
CON: 16

[Dan the Roman]

Is Ignatieff himself in trouble at all? He doesn't have that safe a seat.

[You kip if you want to...]

Probably an idiotic question, but why are the NDP surging? And what's all this about the Bloc being left with a single-digit seat count...?

[Meeker]

How many days until we get a poll with the NDP leading?

[Joe Republic]

Hmm... UK 1983, anyone?

[Phony Moderate]

Hmm... UK 1983, anyone?

The NDP have been around for decades.

[Joe Republic]

Hmm... UK 1983, anyone?

The NDP have been around for decades.

So had the Liberals.

But it just looks so familiar though.  A first term Tory government calls an election not long after a huge economic recession, and since the 'red' opposition party shows no hope (especially under an unpopular leader), the 'yellow' third party surges ahead instead.

Whether they end up with the same disappointment as the Alliance did remains to be seen.