The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[HST1948]

So, that means it's safe Corwin ... ?

Or is that Davis guy a strongly conservative Democrat ?

Being from the area, I believe that Davis would hurt Corwin a lot more than he would help her.  He is extremely conservative and would spend a lot of his own money to court the conserveative vote in this election.  Very few, if any Hochul supporters would rush to vote for Davis if he was on the ballot, even though he ran as a Democrat for this seat before.

[HST1948]

So, that means it's safe Corwin ... ?

Or is that Davis guy a strongly conservative Democrat ?

Being from the area, I believe that Davis would hurt Corwin a lot more than he would help her.  He is extremely conservative and would spend a lot of his own money to court the conserveative vote in this election.  Very few, if any Hochul supporters would rush to vote for Davis if he was on the ballot, even though he ran as a Democrat for this seat before.

Has Davis gotten more conservative, or has he always just tried to get on the ballot any way he can? If so, was he stronger in the more liberal areas of NY-26?

Davis has always run on one issue: protectionism and has been conservative on most other issues.  He has always used any method he could to get on the ballot any way he can.  I would say, however, from what I have seen he has gotten even more conservative during this election.

[HST1948]

Remember that if Jack Davis makes the ballot he will officially be referred as the "Tea Party" candidate so you would think he would take mostly conservative votes.

Exactly, and Davis will most likely spend an inordinate amount of money on this race (like he has done in the past) to get his message out as to appeal to conservative voters, which will most likely turn off most Democrats.

[HST1948]

Now that we know who the two major party nominees are, the topic line is even more important for them to follow.

Anyhow, aside from 3rd parties and/or scandal, am I correct to assume that it will be a steep uphill climb for the Dems, esp. considering that NY-26 is more conservative than NY-23?

This district, or rather the 28th district was drawn specifically for the purpose of allowing Tom Reynolds to "vote like a Southern Conservative" in this district. This is one of the four districts that McCain actually won over Obama, unlike NY-23 which Obama carried narrowly and was far more Legacy Republican than it was structurally Republican.

This is all very true, however, being from the area I can say that Hochul is extremely well know and loved in Western New York. She won her re-election campaign as county clerk in 2010with 79% of the vote (granted it was only Erie County and this district is does not include most of Erie County). However, she is relatively well known, throughout most of the counties Western New York.This, and the fact that she is very wealthy and may be willing to spend some of her own money on this campaign may certainly help her. Certainly she faces an uphill battle in a conservative district against Jane Corwin who, although not well know at all, is spending loads of her own money already on this election.  

[HST1948]

Now that we know who the two major party nominees are, the topic line is even more important for them to follow.

Anyhow, aside from 3rd parties and/or scandal, am I correct to assume that it will be a steep uphill climb for the Dems, esp. considering that NY-26 is more conservative than NY-23?

This district, or rather the 28th district was drawn specifically for the purpose of allowing Tom Reynolds to "vote like a Southern Conservative" in this district. This is one of the four districts that McCain actually won over Obama, unlike NY-23 which Obama carried narrowly and was far more Legacy Republican than it was structurally Republican.

This is all very true, however, being from the area I can say that Hochul is extremely well know and loved in Western New York. She won her re-election campaign as county clerk in 2010with 79% of the vote (granted it was only Erie County and this district is does not include most of Erie County). However, she is relatively well known, throughout most of the counties Western New York.This, and the fact that she is very wealthy and may be willing to spend some of her own money on this campaign may certainly help her. Certainly she faces an uphill battle in a conservative district against Jane Corwin who, although not well know at all, is spending loads of her own money already on this election.  

As much as I would love to share your optimism, how is a county clerk "extremely well known"? Unless she held a more prominent local office previously or comes from a local political dynasty, I'd warrant only a tiny percentage of voters know who their county clerk is. The 79% reelection sounds like someone running for reelection in a Democratic county with no public scandals or incompetence and people voting for the Democrat and/or marginally more familiar name. And as you said, little of Erie County is in this district; I'd guess her name ID outside Erie is in the single digits.

My, aren't I a wet blanket this morning? Please feel free to explain if I'm wrong as you know the local political scene much better than I, and I'd love to become encouraged that this might actually turn into something resembling a race.

I certainly agree with you and any democrat in this district faces an uphill climb.  I would rate Corwin as a front runner right now.  What I am saying, however, Hochul may have the ability to turn this into some sort of a race at least.  In response to your question of her name recognition outside (and I guess even in) of Erie County, I would say that it is higher than one may expect for a county clerk.  She has been highly visible throughout her tenure and every week she writes news articles and many of the regional and town papers (both in and outside of Erie County) publish them. I don't know how many people actually read these, but her name had been out there.  However, she is a Democrat running in one of the most conservative districts in the state. 

[HST1948]

I just thought I would let everyone know both campaigns have started airing commercials as of last night on the three major news channels in the area. Hochuls highlighted her more conservative side, such as her "fight" against Governor Spitzer's propasal to give illegal immigrantas driver's licences, her fight against some of Gvernor Patterson's prpoasals, and her fight to remove the throughway tolls.  It was the "I faught albany for you, and I I'll do the same in Washington regardless of party" message.  Corwin's commercial attacked Hochul for being a "tax and spend liberal" who would raise taxes if she was elected.

[HST1948]

I know it's still a five point lead for Corwin, but given the make up of this district I think Hochul is doing well.  I am suprised at how well Jack Davis is doing, but he has been running commercials non stop (I can't seem to escape them!).  It seems like he may hurt Corwin going into the final stretch of this election though.   

[HST1948]

Still sticking with that?

I still question whether those Davis people will actually go to the polls, but I guess we'll have to see.

I wouldn't doubt that they will.  His supporters seem to really like him and are really loyal around here (at least the one's that I have met and talked to).  In addition he has launched a huge advirtising campaign ($3 million dollars of his own money) on all of the major news channels in the area, so that may help drive up his support as well.  

Like you said though, we won't know until election day.

[HST1948]

Plenty of time for the race to move into genuine three-way tossup territory then, leading to Corwin tanking and finally dropping out to ensure Davis' victory?

With less than a month until the election I don't see any of these candidates changing course drastically (like dropping out).  Corwin will probably begin another advertising blitz, and the Davis will amp up his game too.  It seems like all three will stick to the same talking points and campaign tactics until May 24th.     

[HST1948]

Compare and contrast janecorwin.com with janecorwin.org. It's subtle at first.

Absolutely fantastic!

[HST1948]

When is this election taking place again?

May 24

[HST1948]

Slaughter may not like that, though.

She'll be 83 at the next election...

She's not going anywhere.

[HST1948]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/05/12/starting_trouble_in_ny-26.html

If this really turns out to have been the way it looks in this short video, this could be Jack Davis' 'macaca moment'.

Between Carl Palidino,Chris  Lee, Chris Collins, Byron Brown, whoever the former Niagara Falls mayor was, and Jack Davis it makes me kind of embarrassed to be from Western New York, and I really do love this area.   

[HST1948]

It's kind of crazy here with advertising. I was watching the evening news and during one commercial break there were only commercials for this one election (seriously none for anything other than this). I saw that the DCCC and American cross roads both sponsored adds (in addition to some others which I don't remember). Jane Corwin is attacking both Hochul and Davis for "having strings attached" to Nancy Pelosi and argues that they will be her puppets if elected. Corwin accused Hochul of planning to cut medicare and social security while raising taxes (the medicare part actually made a news story because it is actually an outright fallacy- which Hochul contested).  Hochul's new commercial states that she will cut spending "the right way", one way which she mentioned is by "voting to cut aid to pakistan and any other country that doesn't support us".  And of course Davis' commercials focus on the "failures of both parties" and how both parties shipped "our jobs overseas".

It's getting king of crazy here (at least for WNY).     

[HST1948]

According to WIVB ( a local news station) siena will be releasing a poll tomorrow morning at 10:00am for the NY-26 special election.

[HST1948]

Interesting tidbit in the Siena poll. Jack Davis voters give President Obama a 34/66 favorability rating. If Davis collapses further, it seems unlikely that those voters would go to Hochul and would be more likely to go to Corwin.

 On paper I would agree with you but corwin has attacked davis a lot more than Hochul has and in the last week has released an d reminding voters that davis ran is a democrat in the past and has "strings attached" to nancy pelosi. This makes me think the Davis supporters could go to Hochul if they decide not to support him on election day. And from what I have observed  davis has attack both parties equally  and has attacked Corwin probably as much if not more than Hochul.

[HST1948]

Nancy Pelosi still being used a the boogeyman? Ha. Not surprised.

 Yes lol, corwin has used her in a ton of ads featuring Hochul and Davis as puppets and nancy pelosi as the puppeteer.

[HST1948]

Would you like the new Congressman from our district to caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans in Congress?
Democrats 39%
Republicans 41%
Not Sure 20%

Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction?
Barack Obama 44%
Congressional Republicans 45%
Not Sure 11%

Ouch...

Considering the composition of this district these numbers aren't that bad. But you are right... Ouch!