What Happened in NC's 12th House District in 2014?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 03, 2024, 05:11:04 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  What Happened in NC's 12th House District in 2014?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What Happened in NC's 12th House District in 2014?  (Read 1130 times)
Sorenroy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,701
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -5.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 11, 2017, 06:23:32 PM »

With Wisconsin's gerrymandering case going to the Supreme Court, I have decided to find the efficiency gap in my state's past elections. While doing so, I ran into a weird quirk from 2014. There are two recorded results for the 12th House District. One is called "US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DISTRICT 12", the other is "US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DISTRICT 12 (UNEXPIRED TERM)". What's going on here? Which one is correct?

http://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/04/2014&county_id=0&office=FED&contest=1164
http://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/04/2014&county_id=0&office=FED&contest=1369
Logged
Perlen vor den Schweinen
kongress
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 971
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2017, 07:36:48 PM »

Mel Watt was the representative for this district until he resigned in 2014 to become Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. As a result, this triggered a special election for the rest of his unexpired term, but it was not held before election day. As a result, the special election for the unexpired term was held at the same time as the general election for the next House term.

I would use the data from the general election instead of the special election in your analysis, as you would be using the general election data for the rest of North Carolina's House seats.
Logged
Sorenroy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,701
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -5.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2017, 10:00:28 PM »

So let me see if I've got this right: Alma Adams was pegged as Mel Watt's replacement when his term was cut short by his appointment to Director of FHFA, but instead of having the election for his replacement at that time there was a retroactive vote for what Adams had already served as well as another vote for if she would continue. Is that right?

On a side not, District 9 did not have a Democratic challenger that year. How would you suggest addressing this? Leaving the district in just makes it seems like it was skewed in favor of the Democrats since they wasted 0 votes and republicans wasted 50%, but in reality it likely would have shown another Republican favoring gerrymander had any Democrat decided to run against the Republican there.
Logged
Perlen vor den Schweinen
kongress
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 971
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2017, 11:10:09 PM »

So let me see if I've got this right: Alma Adams was pegged as Mel Watt's replacement when his term was cut short by his appointment to Director of FHFA, but instead of having the election for his replacement at that time there was a retroactive vote for what Adams had already served as well as another vote for if she would continue. Is that right?

On a side not, District 9 did not have a Democratic challenger that year. How would you suggest addressing this? Leaving the district in just makes it seems like it was skewed in favor of the Democrats since they wasted 0 votes and republicans wasted 50%, but in reality it likely would have shown another Republican favoring gerrymander had any Democrat decided to run against the Republican there.

To the first question: I would not say Alma Adams was literally selected as the replacement as soon as Watt resigned; House members cannot be appointed, and our favorite LGBT advocate Pat McCory would certainly not have chosen a Democrat to replace Watt anyway Tongue. With the district being so heavily Democratic, though, she was sure to win the special and general elections in November as long as she won the Democratic primary earlier in the year. Also, House terms last for two years. After the special election on 11/4/14, Adams was immediately sworn into Watt's former seat for the remaining two months of the unexpired term; there was simply a vacancy from the period of Watt's resignation to Adams' swearing-in. No "retroactive" election was held for a representative during this time period, as you cannot be considered a member of Congress before you have been elected.

To the second question: I would probably take in that data as it is, and leave a note that there was no Democratic challenger. Knowing North Carolina, it is quite likely that there will be some startling results when the efficiency gap is applied on its elections.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,118
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2017, 04:13:58 AM »

There have been instances where people who won the general election, lost the special or vice versa.

When Tom Delay was forced to resign. The Republican replacement Shelley Sekula-Gibbs won the special election to serve out his term (ending January 3, 2007) and Democrat Nick Lampson won the general election for the term commencing January 3, 2007 and ending in January 2009. Both elections were held on the same day.

By comparison, in NY-29 in 2010, after the Democrat resigned. The Democratic Governor set the date to be the same as the general election (something like 8 months later), which led some to cry foul since it was most certainly to flip to the Republicans. The special election was held the same day as the General and Republican Tom Reed won both.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.228 seconds with 12 queries.