KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

All those people won. Big.

That doesn't mean they are good

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I do think that is a rather simplistic approach and analysis. Jealous and Gonzales' losses were not caused by their unpopularity or by their holding too extreme positions (you said yourself Warren got 60% in a State perfectly receptive to Democratic talking points and ideology.) Their losses were caused by their incredibly popular and strong opponents. Chalking up a loss to an opponent with incredible approvals to a mere "oh, they were too left-wing" drastically misses the points that:
1) Popularity, obviously, matters. Kobach did himself in with his abysmal numbers, whereas Baker and Hogan survived because of their amazing ones.
2) There are different conditions in every State, and a lot of variables in both that prevent any analysis that does not look beyond simple numbers. As I stated, popularity matters, the underlying conditions in any given State matter, and it would be quite hard to establish a comparative pattern without any prior understanding of the basic differences in the culture and situation of both States.
Kelly's win was something that does show Democrats the path to a future statewide Democratic win, and her acheivements, even against a disaster like Kobach, should be taken to be quite valuable for the Democrats (though, of course, nobody would rate it anything but Safe R in 2020-PRES.

You did state it was your opinion, and I quite respect it, but I do believe there are some conditions that you might not have taken into account in developing your analysis. If you want, we can now return to KS-SEN .

Not to nitpick or anything, but Jealous lost b/c he ran one of the most incompetent gubernatorial campaigns of the cycle.  It had nothing to do with ideology and everything to do with candidate quality.  Hogan would’ve lost to Jealous had the latter simply run a competent or even mildly below average campaign.  Baker probably would’ve beaten a non-sacrificial lamb opponent by high single-digits, but he’d get destroyed if he ran for Senate (his ceiling against Markey is probably 42% given that Trump will be on the ballot). 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The KS GOP moderate branch needs to be cleansed with fire, and that's the end of it. Tim Huelskamp 2020.

No.

How about we do something else? How about we act like normal people and "cleanse" the GOP of lunatics like Kobach and Huelskamp instead?

How is Tim Huelskamp, who stood for his beliefs even to the point of electoral defeat, worse than party switching, float like a boat, Barbara Bollier?

Because his beliefs are insane

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

Y'know, something tells me that's not true, that something being the fact that we live in the same universe which saw Alabama send a Democrat to the Senate over an alleged child molester. Given that, I really think a frankly more-Democratic state like Kansas would be a-okay sending a Democrat to the Senate over Hitler's closest & most devoted associate.

Doug Jones was also a stronger nominee than Barbara Bollier is.

Actually, I’d argue Bollier is a stronger candidate than Jones was in a number of ways.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe R

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nuclear take: Bollier isn’t in a worse position than Greenfield or Bullock.

Greenfield is definitely in a better position than the other two

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This helps Marshall for certain and his chances of winning are pretty high now. Johnson County won't be voting Democratic, though, it's too far gone for now.

You mean Johnson County won't be voting Republican, right?