KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Oryxslayer]

Roger Marshall is probably in a good place to launch a campaign on the Republican side. Both Coyler and Kobach also have justifications for a campaign. I don't know who is in a favorable position locally, but I have to think there are State Legislators, particularly from the conservative block, who want the seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Any Dem candidates floated yet?

Gov. Candidate Josh Svaty, US Atty. Barry Grissom, KS-3 Candidate Brent Welder, Lt. Gov. Elect Lynn Rogers, there are certainly more... KS Dems have quite the bench.

Not to mention the previously stated state legislators that have moderate credentials from their former republican party ID, but check all the ideological boxes thanks to their voting history.

[Oryxslayer]

Blue wave? Kansas Democrats think they have a ‘real chance’ for U.S. Senate in 2020

“I think we have a real chance in 2020 to pick up a Senate seat here,” Gibson said. “I think Democrats are certainly going to be the underdog but I think we’ll have a punching chance in that contest.”

And the midterms show Gibson could be right. In 2016, Republicans in Kansas won all four Congressional districts by double-digit margins. But that stronghold fell in 2018 when only two districts won by double-digits. In District 3, Davids beat Yoder by a margin of 10 points. In District 2, Democratic Paul Davis barely lost to Republican Rep. Steve Watkins.

In addition to a strong showing in the midterms, Democrats gained ground in the state legislature this session when three Republican lawmakers switched party affiliations, including Sen. Barbara Bollier, Sen. Dinah Sykes and Rep. Stephanie Clayton.

Gibson said it’s a sign that Kansans’ long-held affection for the Republican party is waning.

“There’s a lot of people who I’ve met going around the state who are still registered with the other side, and have a deep cultural affinity for Republicans, but they feel that Democrats are more aligned with their interests and their values,” Gibson said.

I agree, they have a chance...if the nominee is Kobach or a state legislator that subscribes to his views.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1144970113503944704?s=19

For those unaware Boyda was one of the suburban liberal Republicans before 2018, but she flipped to be closer to her ideological brethren in 2018. This type of candidate: female, suburban, formerly conservative but fiercly opposed to the brownback style radicals, is exactly what Democrats need if Kobach once again ends up as the KS GOPs prominent nominee.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1144970113503944704?s=19

For those unaware Boyda was one of the suburban liberal Republicans before 2018, but she flipped to be closer to her ideological brethren in 2018. This type of candidate: female, suburban, formerly conservative but fiercly opposed to the brownback style radicals, is exactly what Democrats need if Kobach once again ends up as the KS GOPs prominent nominee.

She switch parties in 2003, not 2018.

My mistake, I was thinking of a different Suburban, Female, Republican. But it doesn't detract from anything else I said.

[Oryxslayer]

Pompeo is betting on Trump's reelection? not firing him like everyone else in the next 1/5 years? Bold.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/lindsaywise/status/1169280364474503170

KSGOP got their wish. LaTurner is going for the primary, Marshall has a clear route vs Kobach.

[Oryxslayer]

It's quite apparent he's either trolling or just really, really politically out of touch with everything.

I mean, you (and several other posters here) could easily put him on ignore and stop engaging with him, but the fact is you don’t...

I did a long time ago and the forum is for the better.

[Oryxslayer]

Marshalls officially in.

[Oryxslayer]

Hilarious this means that Republicans will continue to get all of their KS Senators from KS-01. Both Jerry Moran and Pat Roberts represented KS-01.

Coincidentally, back in the 2010 cycle, I made a comment that Republicans were better off because at the time the stark divides between moderate and conservative KS factions were centered in the Eastern Part of the state, and thus such a western Representative would be "above the fray".

Well depending on how they draw it, the Western District could come all the way East.  You'd think that the metro areas might get tired of the Western areas getting all the Senators.

They didn't have the votes to do that in 2011 when Brownback was governor.  No way they would be able to do it now over Kelly's veto.  Republicans are currently only 2 seats over the veto override threshold in the lower chamber, so it's entirely possible they lose the veto-proof majority in 2020 anyway.  And the Kansas Supreme Court leans strongly left if redistricting gets there.

And Kansas legislature couldn't even draw the maps last time because they were too busy fighting each other, as I recall.

And Kelly has close to a shadow majority considering the moderate/radical split. But the big 1st could still move west to eat the rurals north of KC presently in the second. Then it would get even more GOP and more likely to foster statewide candidates. But anyway...

Likely R (much closer to Safe R) if Marshall wins Republican primary

Come one, everyone knows the copy paste Twitter endorsement means nothing when Kobach is essentially mini Trump. Especially when the only reason Trump wouldn't give Kobach his endorsement again is because he lost. The radical wing of the party will still vote against the respectable Marshall, because that's how the KS GOP fracture works.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah, especially after Sondland's testimony today, Pompeo looks like his star is dimming rapidly.

In hindsight, had he given into McConnell and gotten in this race in the Spring, he would be running as a somewhat popular former Secretary of State and would have avoided this entire Ukraine mess entirely.

If he runs now he looks like a rat jumping off the ship. Pompeo made a big mistake staying around till now and not announcing earlier. It's given time for his appeal to diminish and for Kobach to consolidate local support around his candidacy once more.

[Oryxslayer]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

You are talking about a very small group of voters that would be extremely expensive due to the geographic challenges. Best focus for Democrats would be maximizing turnout in urban areas.

There are multiple southwestern counties that are majority Hispanic/Latinx with adult populations of 20,000+ that average 15-20% turnout, often less. These are mostly based in micropolitan areas like Dodge City, Garden City, and Liberal - among others - that are well-concentrated.

There is a valuable long game here. Activating these new voters puts multiple state legislative districts in play, impacts redistricting, and of course provides votes at the top of the ticket that could be influential in a potentially tight statewide race.

Those counties share a lot of similarities with their neighbors to the South and Southwest in Texas, rural California, and other border establishments. Many people working in those meatpacking/processing towns cannot register to vote, or do not want to for structural reasons. Therefore, the real potential voter pool down here is far smaller than the resident population.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1226987628676804609

8 point drop between a normal R lead and Kobach.

[Oryxslayer]

New poll:
https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1260601602496495618?s=20

I'm pretty certain this is an internal, but still good news for Marshall.

It's also interesting 1/4 voters are undecided. Maybe because if they were pushed harder the numbers are less rosy.

[Oryxslayer]

Cook on Chuck Todd show has already put MT and IA and the tossups and ME, NC, AZ and CO in the Lean D category

Dems want to get to 51 not 50 since the 2000 compromise when Cheney broke the tie was a power sharing agreement,  in which McConnell will have sway in a tied Senate on Nominations and Bills

This post has literally nothing to do with the Kansas Senate race.

I can't believe there are people on this forum that STILL do not have this guy on ignore. His posts don't add anything to the discussion, so you don't even lose anything by whiting him out.

[Oryxslayer]

Buh buh but KS senate is safe R without Kobach!

It still is. Nobody cares about the reckless driving except people who were going to vote for Bollier anyway.

Having it come out before the primary is wrapped up though isn't in his favor.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1285735650709381124

Reminder that earlier in the cycle we had a report that the Senate leadership were pushing Trump and the White house to endorse Marshall. However, Trump didn't want to anger or go against his loyal voters who like Kobach, and didn't want to harm his relationship with Kobach personally.

[Oryxslayer]

Can't verify, but...

https://twitter.com/we_want_gore/status/1289025022082850818?s=20

I mean the contours of this contest are going to be different than in 2018. Marshall is going to win his district and probably a solid chunk of the Wichita media market that isn't in his seat. Kobach is good to have to do well in the rest of the state to compensate for the first being a loss, if he wins.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ArjavRawal/status/1289327250970558464

A portent of the eventual partisan divide around absentee voting.

[Oryxslayer]

I would say that this statement made by Roberts is not exactly factual. Sure, some Dems might vote for Kobach to give themselves an advantage later, but evidence contradicts this. The early vote suggests that dems are still casting dem ballots, and are in fact energized to cast said ballots.

It is easy to see what is going on when we view the statement this way. Roberts wants Marshall to win, so he is discrediting Kobach's campaign, and casting doubt on the legitimacy of his potential primary victory.

[Oryxslayer]

Any inferences into what early indicators we should be looking at? Kobach did best in northwest and southwest Kansas in 2018 but those areas are also part of Marshall's district.

Given past results from congressional candidates going statewide, expect Marshall to do best in his district and to a lesser extent other parts of the Wichita media market. Kobach and the others will probably net votes from the east of the state. A significant divergence from this alignment would be shocking.

[Oryxslayer]

Any inferences into what early indicators we should be looking at? Kobach did best in northwest and southwest Kansas in 2018 but those areas are also part of Marshall's district.

Given past results from congressional candidates going statewide, expect Marshall to do best in his district and to a lesser extent other parts of the Wichita media market. Kobach and the others will probably net votes from the east of the state. A significant divergence from this alignment would be shocking.

Quoting this because it's perhaps the only productive thing in the thread from before MT Treasurer brought everyone down to earth. These results from the east don't suggest Kobach can outrun the First, but it is one precinct.

[Oryxslayer]

kobach lost johnson county by far too large a margin for him to have any chance.

That's one precinct in Johnson County.

Its very likely the EV, unless the county had super-precincts.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1290818693040087051?s=20

Things might still change if the count goes long. The true GOP partisans and Kobach enthusiasts would obviously have followed Trump and stayed away from the advance polls. Maybe things get more interesting, or maybe Marshall stays confidently ahead.