Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[JohnnyLongtorso]

We'll be getting another round of polls from DK/PPP this weekend. They're polling four of the six Republican recalls (presumably Kapanke is getting skipped since he's toast, not sure who the other skip would be).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

State legislative seats don't always end up being decided by partisan issues. Kapanke probably tried to focus on local issues or something. Like I said, he probably kept a low profile, until he blew it with his run for Congress and supporting Walker's agenda lockstep.

He did only win by slim margins in both 2004 (52.5 - 47.5) and 2008 (51.4 - 48.6).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Article about the Olsen/Clark race. Olsen has never had to run a general election campaign, he's been unopposed every single time he's been up for election in the past 16 years. That might partially account for why he's doing so poorly.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I posted this one page ago:

Their chances are pretty decent, actually. Dan Kapanke is toast, while Luther Olson and Randy Hopper are tossups that may be leaning slightly to the Democrats. The other three are probably going to hold on.

On the defense side, Wirch isn't going to have any trouble, and Holperin lucked out and got a nutter opponent, so he's probably favored.

We should have some final polls from DK/PPP either tonight or tomorrow.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It would be pretty embarrassing if they only beat Kapanke.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I suppose this will keep us awake on the East Coast till 2 or 3 in the morning, correct?

Nah, all the races should be over by 11 PM Eastern. Except for the 8th, since Waukesha County is in the district. The incompetent county clerk there will probably keep everyone waiting until after midnight.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

My guess is the same as I predicted months ago: Kapanke and Hopper lose.

Can anybody please post the 2008 Obama vs. McCain results in these districts as well as the 2004 and 2008 and 2010 results of these elections ?

Thx.

The Bush/Kerry, Obama/McCain, and Prosser/Kloppenberg numbers are in the OP. In 2008, Kapanke, Darling, and Hopper all barely won with about 50-51% of the vote, Harsdorf won about 57-43, and the other two were unopposed.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Dems had better hope it's the Republican precincts reporting, because it's not looking good for any of them aside from Shilling.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kapanke's currently underperforming his 2008 result by about 3-4%. Doesn't really matter if he leads now, because he'll undoubtedly lose La Crosse (which he did in 2008, albeit narrowly).

Edit: now he's down 8% in Crawford from 2008.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's how it looks to me, at this point:

Cowles is safe, no surprise there.

Darling depends on what kind of margin and turnout Pasch got in Milwaukee; she's doing well in the suburban counties.

Harsdorf will win; she's outperforming her '08 numbers, when she won 56-44.

No idea on Clark/Olsen.

Hopper is doing extremely well in Winnebago; King needs the remaining precincts to go heavily for her (she needs to win there by at least 55-45).

Kapanke is toast, but that's no surprise either.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hooper now tied at 19%

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Maybe Walker and the Brothers Fitzgerald should have spent a little time upgrading Wisconsin's archaic election results reporting system.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hopper isn't out of the woods yet; according to Sam's link, he won Fond du Lac by 54-46, which is 2% below his '08 margin, and he lost the one precinct in Dodge, which he won in 2008. The only question is whether King's lead in Winnebago will continue to expand.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, mostly Milwaukee has been reporting from the 8th and Darling's down over 2500 votes. It remains to report from 26 precincts in Milwaukee and 23 precincts in the suburbs. The problem, of course, we have no clue how many votes are there in those precincts.

A lot. Milwaukee only makes up 50% of the district's population as of the 2010 census. There will probably be a big dump of votes from the suburbs at some point; the same thing happened during the Supreme Court race.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Shilling is going to beat Kapanke easily; the one county that's still out went for her by 600 votes, but it's not reported on the AP site yet.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

King pulls ahead by 137 votes; 14 precincts left.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Washington County results (all but one precinct; 7,955 Darling, 2,877 Pasch). I don't see Pasch recovering from that kind of margin.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

All right, I give up, I'm going to bed while assuming that King and Darling win.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think absentees are counted on election night in Wisconsin.

So, here's what last night shows:

1. Republican incumbents who are not scandal-plagued are still capable of winning Republican districts.
2. Democrats are still capable of winning Democratic districts.

In other words... pretty much nothing.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, how did PPP do?

In District 10, their final poll had a 54-42 lead for Harsdorf (Harsdorf +12). Harsdorf ended up winning 58-42 (Harsdorf +16). Off by 4 in the Democrat's favor.

In District 14, their final poll had a 50-47 lead for Luther Olsen (Olsen +3). Olsen ended up winning 52-48 (Olsen +4). Off by 1 in the Republican's favor.

In District 18, their final poll had a 49-48 lead for Randy Hopper (Hopper +1). King ended up winning 51-49 (King +2). Off by 3 in the Republican's favor.

In District 32, their final poll had a 54-43 lead for Shilling (Shilling +11). Shilling ended up winning 55-45 (Shilling +10). Off by 1 in the Democrat's favor.

All in all, pretty decent performance, considering they were polling a special election for the state legislature.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Our old friend, the counting error, makes another appearance. Cowles' margin in Outagamie was overinflated (it's 54-46, not 69-31), but obviously it's not enough to change the outcome.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

We'll be getting PPP polls on the remaining two Democratic recalls Monday.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Red Racing Horses, the conservative alternative to DKE, has their own polling operation now! They used We Ask America and got a 51-49 Holperin lead. Unfortunately for them, their sample looks too independent-heavy (and zero undecideds always seems... unlikely).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP looks a little too optimistic for Holperin, so I'm going to guess he ends up winning about 54-46.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Results link; polls close in an hour.