Nate Silver getting 50/50 states right isn't that impressive at all. You would have gotten exactly the same result - with Florida as the only possible exception - by doing a simple average of all poll, something not exactly requiring great mathematical skill.
For all the complicated prediction models of political scientists, there is no way to get a more accurate result than a simple aggregate of the polls.
Given that Obama won, he had a 100% chance of re-election.
