Bush Bias in Rasmussen's poll analysis??

[The Vorlon]

Please note if you take my one day totals and average then into 3 day totals they do NOT exactly match what Rasmussen publishes (they are close)  

Each day gets weighted independantly, as do the 3 day samples, so because the weights vary from day to day, the do not exactly match up.

They are close, within a few tenths.

For what it's worth, these are the daily Bot samples....

The date on the chart is the date of publication, actualy sample was conducted the night before

[The Vorlon]

Ah... the infinate wonders of statistical noise...

And because it's a tracking poll... you get two days worth of statistical noise (ok..1.414 days worth if we want to be picky) each and every day as the noise of the sample rolling off gets joined up with the noise of the sample rolling on....

And to add more noise we then reweight the entire sample too..

Ain't life grand

FWIW - I "think" Rasmussen will show Bush up 3ish tomorrow as a sample with a lot of Dems unloads, which shifts his weightings a fair bit, which adds about 1.5% to Bush... unless it doesn't...