US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2011/03/04/2109106/congressional-redistricting-could.html

http://www.southerncoalition.org/news-coverage/public-weighs-in-on-congressional-redistricting-process

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

That local affairs crap.


Maybe Rucho wants to sink Coble.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe, but you can ensure that both Shuler and McIntyre will 1) never be safe and 2) will vote Republican as often as possible.


Kissell and Miller should be the ones targetted for elimination.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe, but you can ensure that both Shuler and McIntyre will 1) never be safe and 2) will vote Republican as often as possible.

And 3) Persuade them in so many words that they will find a brighter political future as newly minted Republicans.  

Which brings me to this question -what is the likelihood that either would switch parties, especially after redistricting?  

After Griffith?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe, but you can ensure that both Shuler and McIntyre will 1) never be safe and 2) will vote Republican as often as possible.

And 3) Persuade them in so many words that they will find a brighter political future as newly minted Republicans.  

Which brings me to this question -what is the likelihood that either would switch parties, especially after redistricting?  

After Griffith?

Apparently numerous Democratic state legislators throughout the South (esp. in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia) weren't deterred by his example when they joined the GOP. 

Shuler might survive, McIntyre probably wouldn't. Not with a movement guy like Pantano just waiting to run again.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

They most likely want and hope she falls to such a primary challenger.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Worth noting:

McIntyre & Etheridge both got around 70% in 2002 and 2004, good Republican years.  It would be difficult for Etheridge to mount a comeback now, since he's voted for Obamacare and beat up kids on the sidewalk; but McIntyre still has a good chance of winning.  Especially against Ilario Pantano.

Kissell has a good chance of holding on too.  The 8th is a very blue-collar area, and Democrats have an edge in voter registration.

In other news, I should respect Mel Watt for standing up for other North Carolina Democrats after the Republicans gave him a 78% Obama district:

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I am sure you can find several white Dems in the South that won with 70%, in Bush districts, in years like 2004 and 2002. Bud Cramer, John Tanner, maybe even Bart Gordon and some of the AR Dems.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Kissell is definately no lightweight and if the GOP is going to defeat him, they better have a serious candidate. Not some sports reporter or an escapee from the nut house (the crazy man who spent millions only to loose the primary once people realized how crazy he was).

McIntyre will probably hang on, inspite of the changes, but his voting record might drift more conservative.

Etheridge is finished, as is Miller. Shuler really got hammered in the line drawing, which is a shame since he is my favorite Democrat presently. He probably takes the job in TN. He is probably the only one that could hold that seat though and I wouldn't be surprised if he did somehow, but he will never be safe and, especially if Obama is reelected, he will probably be DOA in 2014.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I had an idea as a recourse to solve the problem with the 13th should the Daily Kos article prove right about a Durham connection being required. But alas, loading version 2.2 of the App is impossible. I spent nearly 2 hours trying to load NC, two days ago.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I've heard that the new map might not even go into effect until 2014 because of the lawsuits.

Some of the litigated maps in the 1990's remained in a effect for few elections. Though you would have to see details to see if the lawsuits actually took that long or whether they started them after the elections had occured. If they took that long, there would be precedent for leaving the litigated map in place till the case is decided. The Texas Delay map was in place for 2004 elections, though I don't know when the lawsuit that forced changes in the 23rd started.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The funny things is that - for once - he isn't entirely wrong in questioning assumptions about electoral movement in NC that have become the orthodoxy here.

Job growth has stalled in North Carolina. One wonders why these massive groups of Yankees would be moving there nowadays.

I am certainly wondering why I moved here. 2002 was a different world though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I've heard that the new map might not even go into effect until 2014 because of the lawsuits.

Some of the litigated maps in the 1990's remained in a effect for few elections. Though you would have to see details to see if the lawsuits actually took that long or whether they started them after the elections had occured. If they took that long, there would be precedent for leaving the litigated map in place till the case is decided. The Texas Delay map was in place for 2004 elections, though I don't know when the lawsuit that forced changes in the 23rd started.

If Miles is correct, would a (non-partisan) court-drawn map take place in 2012?

It depends on how long the courts take to litigate the matter and then whether or not the courts redraw the maps temporarily to deal with 2012 or let the new map be implemented till the case is finished. Because I don't think they can use the 2002 lines in 2012. This is why I suggested looking for precedent on this matter and then consider likilihood of shifts in the court's composition changing the decision.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maps for the General Assembly will be released sometime today, according to local news reports. Don't know when though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

HOW DARE THEY PUT ME IN JONES' DISTRICT!!!!!!!!!!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'd rather have Myrick. She has never struck me as being that bad. What don't you like about her? I don't see how I am really lucky unless you think Myrick is worse then Ellmers.

I thought Coble had some connections with extremist groups. Though that may be because someone used to complain about him a lot in discussions with me.

Jones isn't horrible, but I don't want to be represented by him though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I hate this new map.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe, how much of the current 8th is familiar territory versus the 2nd? The familiar territory provides and incumbency advantage of a few points.  He could lose that 4 points and maybe more depending on how much fewer familiar territory he has in the 2nd verus the 8th.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

He is probably better off in the 8th.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

How did Myrick get less safe? It went from 54% to 55%, didn't it?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

House Bill 606, a bipartisan bill that creates an independent redistricting process, seems to be gaining steam.

OH GOD, YES!!!


Makes disturbingly, and seemingly sensually motivated, facial expression

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Be quicker with that information next time, before I go and get all...and stuff!


Is there any better chance of it getting through the Senate this time?


Did you email your State Senator on the matter, too?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yea, that would probably not be that helpfull.


I will look into contacting mine, but this computer is unstable and I am leary of going to unknown sites for the time being, including a legislator's website.