UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Lord Halifax]

I'll turn on BBC for the exit poll. If it says Tory majority, I'm going to bed. If it says no overall majority, I'll go down the corner shop to get some cheap cans of cider and settle in for a long one.

MAKE PLANS TO GO TO BED!

STFU

[Lord Halifax]

NI

DUP 8
SF 7
SDLP 2
Alliance 1

First HoC election with a unionist minority.

[Lord Halifax]

Turnout hasn't often borne much correlation to how well Tories or Labour do - for instance, turnout was consistently higher during the Thatcher & Major years than the Blair-Brown ones. It also - before the more recent elections - tended to be higher in Conservative seats than in Labour areas, and the highest-turnout election in modern times (1992) saw the Tories - not Labour - do much better than polls expected.

How would those Labour voters who stayed home in previously loyal constituencies have voted? No way to know, of course, but the idea that Labour was defeated by low turnout or 'suppressed votes' (who exactly was doing the suppressing?) I just don't find believable. Certainly the opinion polls pointed almost exactly to yesterday's outcome, so it seems unlikely that turnout rates disproportionately benefited one side or the other.

Its not true that there is "no" relation. Low turnouts *tend* to favour the Tories and always have done whereas higher ones mean the pro-Labour demographics tend to vote in bigger numbers. Though a qualifier here is that *very* high turnouts tend to favour the right again - in the 1992 GE as you say and also the 2016 EU referendum (*may* have helped "no" in the 2014 ScotIndy vote as well)

Why is that? Who are the people that vote in very high turnout elections and not in "ordinary" high turnout elections?

[Lord Halifax]

find a way to turn the SNP into a permanent satellite.

that assumes Scottish independence never happens

[Lord Halifax]

find a way to turn the SNP into a permanent satellite.

that assumes Scottish independence never happens

Well, if Scottish independence does happen, that's even more reason for Labour not to compete there.

The whole prospect of independence (which isn't some unrealistic dream given that Brexit is likely to have very negative effects on the Scottish economy) means that it's unrealistic for Labour to turn SNP into a "permanent satellite". Any Labour-SNP alliance will be temporary and likely fraught with tension.

Question to British posters: Would Scottish Labour benefit from ditching unionism and becoming neutral ("let the people decide") on independence?

[Lord Halifax]

find a way to turn the SNP into a permanent satellite.

that assumes Scottish independence never happens

Well, if Scottish independence does happen, that's even more reason for Labour not to compete there.

The whole prospect of independence (which isn't some unrealistic dream given that Brexit is likely to have very negative effects on the Scottish economy) means that it's unrealistic for Labour to turn SNP into a "permanent satellite". Any Labour-SNP alliance will be temporary and likely fraught with tension.

It's really not that complicated. Either independence succeeds and the Scottish Question stops being an issue for Labour (they're going to have to work their ass off to win a majority of English and Welsh seats, but it can be done). Or it fails, the SNP eventually has to accept that, and settles with a partnership with Labour. I mean I guess they could keep asking for a new IndyRef every 5 years or so, but they'll get tired of it eventually.

SNP is a broad tent populist party like Fianna Fail in Ireland. They have no reason to be permanently allied with Labour if it doesn't give them a referendum.

[Lord Halifax]

Question to British posters: Would Scottish Labour benefit from ditching unionism and becoming neutral ("let the people decide") on independence?

It seems some members are thinking along those lines.

Is Scottish Labour's position on independence changing?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50808996

[Lord Halifax]

find a way to turn the SNP into a permanent satellite.

that assumes Scottish independence never happens

Well, if Scottish independence does happen, that's even more reason for Labour not to compete there.

The whole prospect of independence (which isn't some unrealistic dream given that Brexit is likely to have very negative effects on the Scottish economy) means that it's unrealistic for Labour to turn SNP into a "permanent satellite". Any Labour-SNP alliance will be temporary and likely fraught with tension.

It's really not that complicated. Either independence succeeds and the Scottish Question stops being an issue for Labour (they're going to have to work their ass off to win a majority of English and Welsh seats, but it can be done). Or it fails, the SNP eventually has to accept that, and settles with a partnership with Labour. I mean I guess they could keep asking for a new IndyRef every 5 years or so, but they'll get tired of it eventually.

SNP is a broad tent populist party like Fianna Fail in Ireland. They have no reason to be permanently allied with Labour if it doesn't give them a referendum.

Did you even read my post?? When did I say anything about not giving them a referendum?

You implied they would eventually get tired of demanding one all the time and would then remain allies of Labour ("the SNP eventually has to accept that, and settles with a partnership with Labour").