NJ-07: Mike Ferguson (R) will not seek re-election

[Brittain33]

NJPoliticker reports that Bramnick said no.

It's pretty awkward if NJ Republicans feel they have a better chance of returning to power in the Assembly than they do in Congress any time soon... but probably accurate.

"There's a big difference between federal and state politics. In Trenton, Democrats had a chance to govern and they did not do well. In Washington, everything hinges now on the economy and on the Iraq War," Bramnick told PolitickerNJ.com.

[Brittain33]

A more likely option: The NRCC was less than interested in buoying the campaign of someone with little-to-no experience in serious fundraising.  Especially when the list of potential candidates includes at least two self funders (Hunterdon Freeholder-elect/Deodorant heir Mennen and Bedminster Councilman/philanthropist Finn Caspersen, Jr.), a former congressman with strong ties to the pharmecutical industry (read: huge veins of campaign cash), and an outgoing State Senate Minority Leader/ranking Appropriations member.

I can see how that would make sense, on the other hand, I can't imagine the NRCC making a decision not to support him within 24 hours of the resignation and then communicating that so quickly. Bramnick, after all, brings political skills that Caspersen lacks, so they don't have a dream candidate yet. I can imagine that if Franks had declared right away something might have happened like this, but not in the absence of a strong, declared candidate.

This decision originated with Bramnick. He may well have decided that he wasn't up to tackling the fundraising challenge.

[Brittain33]

Good grief. Franks said no.

If Lance says no, I have to conclude they all think that 2008 will be a rotten year, so let Stender get in against a rich dilettante heir, cast a view votes they can use to label her a Spender, and then they can run against her in the 2010 mid-terms when conditions will have improved.

[Brittain33]

NJ-07 is Leans Democratic because of GOP recruitment failures. Nothing to do with coattails.

And the recruitment failures aren't just a cause of Republican problems, but an indicator of the environment in the district, which in a perfectly neutral year would undoubtedly lean Republican.

[Brittain33]

Today's update is that Lucky Sperm Club candidate #1, Finn Caspersen, has decided not to run and Lance is still on the sidelines.

NJ-07 is the new OH-15. Or perhaps it's like a mirror of PA-15. Linda Stender absolutely should not get a free tide to Washington, but she now has a good chance of an easy ride there.

[Brittain33]

So much for NJ-07 being OH-15.  Like I predicted, it looks like we're headed towards a multi-candidate primary.

Lance was the final top-tier candidate on the Republican side who hadn't yet ruled himself out. In the end, Sen. Stivers came through for OH-15; Lance may be that guy.

The member of the Lucky Ovum club, on the other hand, doesn't count any more than the Mennen heir or any one else stupid enough to self-fund, and her name is probably a net negative.

[Brittain33]

NJ-07 gets its second officially declared candidate: Scotch Plains Mayor (and 2003 State Senate candidate) Marty Marks.

I have nothing against him, but he may face a tough battle against anyone representing more than the 3% of the district's population that lives in Scotch Plains. At least he's a mayor and not a random freeholder or town councilman.

[Brittain33]

I do feel bad for her.  She carries with her so much baggage by virtue of lineage alone that she couldn't conceivably win a GOP primary.

Why feel bad, though? If it weren't for the lineage, no one would be taking her seriously in the first place. Her parents should have a talk with her about the responsibility that goes along with the privilege of a historic name and great wealth. She shouldn't be allowed to make an ass of herself.

[Brittain33]

We (the people of ye olde NJ-12) really should have sent Leonard Lance off to Congress back in 1996 when it would have been a gimme general election win.

What's the story on Mike Pappas and how he won in '96?