The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Former MLB pitcher Curt Schilling says he plans to run for president (presumably as a Republican) in 2020 or 2024:

http://www.upi.com/Sports_News/2016/08/09/Curt-Schilling-eyes-2020-presidential-bid/1961470747032/

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Here's more on Schilling's political ambitions:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/08/16/curt-schilling-says-considering-running-against-senator-elizabeth-warren/a4i6Z8QLWxy8TcBlaAnN8M/story.html

Looks like he might run for Warren's Senate seat in 2018.

[Mr. Morden]

Dispatch from the annual RedState Gathering a few days ago:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/438980/five-observations-redstate-gathering

Sasse "stole the show", Fiorina also received well, Cory Gardner "had an uneven performance".

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[Mr. Morden]

This story’s a few weeks old, but it’s about Cuomo and Gillibrand politicking at the DNC in Philly a few weeks ago.  Unlike Booker, Castro, Klobuchar, and O’Malley, neither of them talked to the Iowa or New Hampshire delegations while they were there:

http://politicsnow.buffalonews.com/2016/07/28/cuomo-gillibrand-look-like-presidential-candidates-in-philly-sort-of/

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[Mr. Morden]

Kasich meeting NH supporters.

If you asked me a year ago, I would have rated Kasich low on the list of 2016 GOP presidential candidates most likely to run again in 2020.  I didn't think that Kasich was desperate for the job in the same way that, say, Marco Rubio was.  As with Jeb Bush, I wondered if it was just that the people around him talked him into it.  (And of course, unlike Cruz and Rubio, Kasich's starting to get up there in age, as he'll be in his late 60s in 2020.)

But now I guess Kasich really does want to be president, as he's signalling an interest in another run more strongly than anyone else from the 2016 field other than Cruz (and Rubio, sort of...though that's in hibernation while Rubio runs for reelection).  Will be interesting to see where this goes.  With (presumably) no Bush running in 2020, will there be a sizeable contingent of donors rallying around Kasich as the "electable" option for 2020?

[Mr. Morden]

WaPo: Rubio is still running for the presidency:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/marco-rubio-is-running-for-the-senate--or-maybe-still-the-presidency/2016/08/22/48278658-6663-11e6-be4e-23fc4d4d12b4_story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Having said that, if Trump loses in an epic landslide, it is possible that the GOP learns its lesson and turns to someone like Kasich (similar to the Democrats' mea culpa after getting their butt kicked by Nixon, Reagan, and HW Bush, and turned to a moderate southern democrat who wanted to move the party to the center). 

I'm honestly not sure that it's possible for parties to "learn their lesson" on who to nominate in the primary era.  The prototypical example people talk about is the Dems nominating Bill Clinton in '92, which was a move to the center after folks like Mondale and Dukakis.  But I think that was more just an accident of the primary calendar and who Clinton's competition was, plus credit to Clinton's own exceptional political skills.  If a heavyweight like Cuomo had run, then there's a good chance that Clinton would have lost.  Likewise, if Jesse Jackson had run again, then, like in '84 and '88, he would have sucked up black votes in the South, and diluted the strong Southern vote for Clinton.

I think "learning your lesson" can help the discontents make peace with the nominee once he's been nominated.  If the Republicans nominated Kasich in 2020, then the right flank of the party might mute their criticism of him during the general election campaign, because they're desperate to win after 12 years of Democratic presidents.  But would they be any more likely to nominate him in the first place?  Probably not.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio refuses to promise to serve a full six year term, should he be reelected, which once again suggests that he's eyeing another run for president in 2020, assuming Clinton wins this time:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/marco-rubio-wont-commit-6-year-term-227539

[Mr. Morden]

WaPo reports on Kasich's trip to New Hampshire earlier this week:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/kasich-back-in-new-hampshire-with-nostalgia-eye-on-future/2016/08/30/6216616c-6e81-11e6-993f-73c693a89820_story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

A look at the online "Cruz 2020" cheerleaders:

http://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/On-Facebook-already-a-cheering-section-for-Ted-9210693.php

[Mr. Morden]

Pence and Santorum, among others, spoke at the Values Voters Summit this weekend:

http://www.valuesvotersummit.org

[Mr. Morden]

This story's a couple of weeks old, but it talks about Ernst trying to raise her national profile:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-blm-campaign-ernst-1ecaa194-6d95-11e6-993f-73c693a89820-20160828-story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Here’s a recap of Christie’s recent trip to NH:

http://www.app.com/story/news/politics/new-jersey/chris-christie/2016/09/14/christie-calls-gop-unite-around-trump-nh-visit/90373954/?hootPostID=29f34006268c5059c5c2707e8a7b9aae

Meanwhile, despite being famous for not getting along well with his colleagues, Cruz is raising money for fellow Senators:

https://www.texastribune.org/2016/09/14/cruz-cornyn-raise-money-vulnerable-senators/

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[Mr. Morden]

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/confidential/jeb-bush-donors-rematch-2020-article-1.2803848

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[Mr. Morden]

Ryan once again says that he's not ruling out a future run for president.  And once again says that he hasn't run before because his kids were young....which suggests that he might still decide to run when his kids are older:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/paul-ryan-future-presidential-run-article-1.2810066

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[Mr. Morden]

Cotton will headline the IAGOP dinner this weekend.

Looks like he's doing multiple events in the state over the weekend:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/04/2020-2024-watch-tom-cotton-headline-2-iowa-events/91543618/

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[Mr. Morden]

Cotton's IA tour is super-extensive, but Walker was there too & Haley/Kasich are marking NH.

That story also says that not only was Walker in Iowa last week, but that he's going to New Hampshire next week(!):

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This comes after he met with the delegations of Iowa, New Hampshire, *and* South Carolina at the RNC in July.  Of course, that same month, he said that he wasn't going to run for president in 2020, because he wants to run for reelection in '18, and doesn't want to run for prez while being governor again.  But that's starting to sound less credible, given his activity.

On another note, while folks like Cotton and Kasich have been actively 2020 politicking for a while, Haley going to NH (or at least planning to, before she had to cancel because of the hurricane) is the first concrete sign that she's also interested in 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a story on Paul Ryan's (near term) future:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/paul-ryan-future-donald-trump-collapse-229756

Speculation is that (assuming the party doesn't lose its House majority) he'll run for Speaker again, but only if the GOP caucus really wants him.  If the Freedom Caucus tries to wrestle concessions out of him or whatever, then he'll just call it quits, possibly leaving Congress altogether:

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[Mr. Morden]

WaPo covers Cotton's Iowa visit:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/16/a-senators-iowa-visit-offers-hints-at-a-post-trump-gop/

[Mr. Morden]

And here's a report on Walker's visit to New Hampshire over the weekend:

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/scott-walker-receives-warm-welcome-in-new-hampshire-on-first/article_be205aae-ab78-567b-bdb3-100d5ad781c0.html

[Mr. Morden]

And here's a report on Walker's visit to New Hampshire over the weekend:

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/scott-walker-receives-warm-welcome-in-new-hampshire-on-first/article_be205aae-ab78-567b-bdb3-100d5ad781c0.html

Er that's from last year.

Ha ha, so it is.  I saw in the WSJ story from last week that Walker was set to visit NH this weekend to campaign for Sununu, so I searched Google News today for "Walker Sununu New Hampshire", and this came up.  I didn't notice the date.  My bad.

[Mr. Morden]

It might be a little early for any of these potential candidates to explore a run for president...

Maybe it is, and maybe it isn't.  But the fact remains that several of them do appear to be laying the groundwork, and so they're providing us useful clues on the question of who is interested in running.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN has a story on the possibility that Trump allies will try to derail Ryan's reelection as Speaker:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/paul-ryan-leadership-trump/

I'm still not sure Ryan is going to bother running for Speaker again if it looks like that'll give him headaches.

[Mr. Morden]

Last week, Rubio said that he does not currently hold any 2020 presidential ambitions (though that hardly makes for a Shermanesque denial):

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/rubio-on-senate-run/

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Cotton asked about his 2020 plans:

http://www.nwahomepage.com/your-local-election-headquarters/cotton-on-2020-bid-its-better-to-write-your-plan-in-pencil

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[Mr. Morden]

More talk that Ryan might well step down as Speaker:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/304245-chatter-grows-that-ryan-could-step-down

If he leaves his job as Speaker after next week's election, does that make him more likely to run for prez in 2020?

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, I guess this thread is now going to mostly focus on the Dems.  Recall that Booker, both Castros, Klobuchar, O'Malley, and Sanders all had meetings with early primary state delegations at the DNC this past summer.  Cuomo and Gillibrand were also said to have been politicking there, though those two didn't meet with any of the early state delegations this time.