Recent Posts

Show posts from buddies only

The Catholic Church runs of the largest charities globally ever.

Maybe. But in the US they seem to care almost exclusively about politics and imposing their views to other people (much like southern Evangelicals do). That has been true ever since the Legion of Decency which decided what movies should be shown in cinemas and how they should depict not only the Catholic church itself but everything, from sex to profanity.

There’s a reason Pope Francis sacked Joseph Strickland. I wish Pope Francis would do more cleaning up of the American church.

You also have to consider the fact that; it's hard to find replacements. Priests are turning down appointments at a higher rate, and it's hard to find priests ( at least in America ) with Pope Francis's pastoral vision. Some good appointments have been made in the last few months but not enough.



Cardinal Sean O Malley is almost 80 and he still hasn't retired yet because the Vatican can't find a replacement for him, and he's relatively moderate.

It's kind of interesting how fast Georgia went from the swing state Democrats felt most optimistic about to arguably the state they're most pessimistic about.

After 2020 and 2021, Democrats sort of had a honeymoon phase in Georgia where it was assumed Atlanta's growth and increasing black population would pull the state left for the long run. Then in 2022 Democrats had a pretty underwhelming midterm in GA outside the Senate race failing to come close at the state level. Now in 2024, polling and pundits both suggests Trump winning Georgia with relative ease.

Regardless of if Trump ends up winning GA or not, this shows how fast a narrative about a state can turn around.

Georgia could possibly follow the direction of North Carolina where it lent it’s electoral votes to democrats in 2008 then stubbornly vote GOP cycles after albeit by small margins.

I feel like there's arguments for both.

Outside being black, many in group 1 have demographic characteristics that would make them seem unfavorable for Democrats - most heavily black communities have lower educational attainment, decent religious affiliation, and often hold more conservative social views. One reason to believe these communities may not swing notably rightwards is they really didn't in 2020 - if you look at >95% black precincts in New York City, Chicago, or the deep south, the swings were usually <5% towards Trump.

The second group by definition would be harder to analyze because of how they're distributed, but these are black voters who may be more likely to be disconnected from the black community and more assimilated with other cultures, and hence pick up the politics of their neighbors. A huge reason why black voters have historically been so Dem leaning is because of the social collective of the group. If these voters become more disconnected from the "black community", could they shift right because certain social dynamics just don't exist? One reason to believe this group might not shift right is it's more likely to have certain characteristics that favor Democrats like better college attainment than black voters in heavily black neighborhoods.

[most will still vote Biden]

I think the angriest will just stay home, vote third party or leave the presidential ballot blank. Ultimately, though, most will still vote Biden because they know Trump will be worse for Gaza and Muslim Americans.

I think the discontent runs deeper than you give it credit for. There’s still time for things to change, though.

I think there are many groups using Israeli/Gaza as a reason to express deeper anger towards Biden.

1. I made a thread about this a while back but many Arab Americans were already going to flip to Trump or at least not vote for Biden pre-10/7 due to some of their more socially conservative religious views. This can be shown in the 2022 midterm results where places like Dearborn and Hamtramack in MI were the only parts of the state to swing hard right from 2020 Pres --> 2022 Gov and this was pre 10/7.

2. Many progressives who were never going to vote for Biden - many of whom perhaps didn't vote for him in 2020 or Clinton in 2016. These types are angry and want to burn the system down which they don't see Biden as the right person for. There are so many cases I've seen online where a progressive twitter or Instagram account says "I'm so fed up and won't be voting for Biden" - then people go back through their history and finds they were never a Dem voter in the first place.

3. This sort of ties into the last group but young people with a lot of economic anxiety. Many of the biggest economic problems right now (i.e. high housing prices) disproportionately affect young people while things that are doing well (i.e. the stock market) tend to not matter as much to younger folks. I  think many of these types use Israeli-Gaza as a vehicle to express their anger when the root of it is more based around the economy.

[most will still vote Biden]

I think the angriest will just stay home, vote third party or leave the presidential ballot blank. Ultimately, though, most will still vote Biden because they know Trump will be worse for Gaza and Muslim Americans.

I think the discontent runs deeper than you give it credit for. There’s still time for things to change, though.

I think there are many groups using Israeli/Gaza as a reason to express deeper anger towards Biden.

1. I made a thread about this a while back but many Arab Americans were already going to flip to Trump or at least not vote for Biden pre-10/7 due to some of their more socially conservative religious views. This can be shown in the 2022 midterm results where places like Dearborn and Hamtramack in MI were the only parts of the state to swing hard right from 2020 Pres --> 2022 Gov and this was pre 10/7.

2. Many progressives who were never going to vote for Biden - many of whom perhaps didn't vote for him in 2020 or Clinton in 2016. These types are angry and want to burn the system down which they don't see Biden as the right person for. There are so many cases I've seen online where a progressive twitter or Instagram account says "I'm so fed up and won't be voting for Biden" - then people go back through their history and finds they were never a Dem voter in the first place.

3. This sort of ties into the last group but young people with a lot of economic anxiety. Many of the biggest economic problems right now (i.e. high housing prices) disproportionately affect young people while things that are doing well (i.e. the stock market) tend to not matter as much to younger folks. I  think many of these types use Israeli-Gaza as a vehicle to express their anger when the root of it is more based around the economy.

McLaughlin is horrible so if they best they can manage for Trump is a tie...

What's a Wyoming?

The present participle of the verb Wyome.

Yawn. Anonymous Democrats panicking is the most tired sort of article there is.

It's kind of interesting how fast Georgia went from the swing state Democrats felt most optimistic about to arguably the state they're most pessimistic about.

After 2020 and 2021, Democrats sort of had a honeymoon phase in Georgia where it was assumed Atlanta's growth and increasing black population would pull the state left for the long run. Then in 2022 Democrats had a pretty underwhelming midterm in GA outside the Senate race failing to come close at the state level. Now in 2024, polling and pundits both suggests Trump winning Georgia with relative ease.

Regardless of if Trump ends up winning GA or not, this shows how fast a narrative about a state can turn around.

[NIMBYism]

I'll try to avoid issues where the party largely agrees on principle, but disagrees on how to get there (such as Medicare-for-All when it comes to universal healthcare).

1. Affirmative action - This is an issue I think the the Supreme Court got right in its case last year.

2. Government efficiency/inefficiency - This isn't really a disagreement, but more about focus. As the party of making government work for the people, not taking a strong stand on the inefficiencies of government seriously frustrates me and has the effect of undermining the work being done. Part of this includes unnecessary regulations and red tape. At the state level, a great example of inefficiency and the absurdities of government is the California High-Speed Rail project. I support the adoption of high-speed rail across the country, but not costing 50x what it should cost and taking 5-10x as long as it should.

3. Nanny statism - I do think there is a tendency on the left to try to control and micromanage people's lives.

It's hard to come up with concrete criticisms of the Democratic party as a whole.

Progressive Democrats:
wealth tax, hostility towards entrepreneurship

Dem establishment:
NIMBYism, restrictive zoning policies

Atlas D-avatars:
full federal marijuana legalization

I don't think NIMBYism is a party issue. It's definitely both parties, but I would agree insofar as Democrats don't do anything to help the situation. There are too many burdensome regulations and there is too much red tape getting in the way of progress and truly helping people.