IN: Trafalgar Group: Donnelly +12

[Zaybay]

I know I was begging for some polling from IN, but, this, its bad. I can believe that Donnelly is up by 12, Blue Wave, elasticity, and tariffs and all. But these crosstabs, disgusting. The only problem, however, is that this pollster famously leans R, so Im unsure if even a bias can explain the crazy D lead. And gravis, another crappy pollster, got a larger amount for Donelly with the other two.


Garbage, but does point to the race being close, with Donelly being the one ahead.

[Zaybay]

The problem with this poll is not the crosstabs, its the absurd lead. Sure, you can chalk it all up to bad methodolgy, but this lead is rather insane, and even a methodolgy fix would be unlikely to give Braun the lead.

It also pains me because this is the second poll of the race. Gravis released one the day of the primary, and thats it. This is all we have. How am I suppose to make predictions with this?

[Zaybay]

I can believe that Donnelly is up by 12, Blue Wave, elasticity, and tariffs and all. But these crosstabs, disgusting.


Garbage, but does point to the race being close, with Donelly being the one ahead.

The problem with this poll is not the crosstabs, its the absurd lead. Sure, you can chalk it all up to bad methodolgy, but this lead is rather insane, and even a methodolgy fix would be unlikely to give Braun the lead.

WHICH IS IT ZAYBAY

The lead, definitely. If you were to adjust these numbers to believable amounts(basically adjusting for previous patters in voting among groups) then Donelly still wins by 4 points. Its a big difference, but in the end, the lead is pretty insurmountable.

Edit: I mistakenly found 6 the first time I did the math, so I have changed it to the correct amount

[Zaybay]

Braun is too low energy to win

True, but he's running a more fierce campaign than Donnelly is.

But the positions of both candidates is important to consider. Braun is an unknown, fighting against an incumbent with gobs of money, while Donelly has thrived in people not knowing his record and himself, to be honest. If Donelly were to go aggressive, it could backfire in his face, while if Braun let off the attack, he would lose.

[Zaybay]

Braun is too low energy to win

True, but he's running a more fierce campaign than Donnelly is.

But the positions of both candidates is important to consider. Braun is an unknown, fighting against an incumbent with gobs of money, while Donelly has thrived in people not knowing his record and himself, to be honest. If Donelly were to go aggressive, it could backfire in his face, while if Braun let off the attack, he would lose.

Donnelly can't be a total doormat, though.

Of course, thats one of my major criticisms of him. He is going wayyyy to far with trying to be a moderate pushover, and I wish he would stick up for something.He shouldnt be aggressive, but hes now become basically a pushover. But, if thats what he wants to do, our complaining wont change anything.