Chances of seeing a repeat of the 2016 map in 2020?

[538Electoral]

Personally, I'd put the odds at 5-10% that we see no state changes from 2016 to 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

It's possible, if not entirely likely. This country is pretty polarized.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

[Jamison5]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

If anything, Gary Johnson helped Clinton. From what I understand, the Gary Johnson voters would have been split 75-25 in favor of Trump. Gary Johnson likely cost Trump Maine, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Gary Johnson especially hurt Trump in the Southwest.

[ElectionsGuy]

Plausible, not likely. It would be historical, has never happened before.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It should be plausible, but never in American history has the electoral map been exactly the same in two consecutive elections, As ElectionsGuy said. I don't see how that pattern stops. The most likely map, to me, with as little change as possible, involves a Trump win plus New Hampshire or minus Michigan.

[SN2903]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

Please stop trolling. Johnson helped Clinton more. Hillary lost because she an awful candidate.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

0% chance.

[BP🌹]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

Please stop trolling. Johnson helped Clinton more. Hillary lost because she an awful candidate.

Olawakandi is NOT a troll!

[krb08]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

Please stop trolling. Johnson helped Clinton more. Hillary lost because she an awful candidate.

Yeah this dude is a troll. The awful grammar errors in many of their posts give it away, too.

[BP🌹]

I've seen users on other forums from the past who behaved in a similarly odd manner as Olawakandi. I suspect it's the result of a severe mental illness, such as schizophrenia. So this is stuff that a troll can't just make up. It also means that his hilarious posts are in truth somewhat tragic. I hope he's doing well.

[SN2903]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

Please stop trolling. Johnson helped Clinton more. Hillary lost because she an awful candidate.

Olawakandi is NOT a troll!

He absolutely is. He literally posts Trump has no chance in MI, WI, PA multiple times a day. If that is not trolling I do not know what is.

[redeagleofficial]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

Please stop trolling. Johnson helped Clinton more. Hillary lost because she an awful candidate.

Olawakandi is NOT a troll!

Yeah, more like a robot putting together incoherent semi-related words

[YE]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

Please stop trolling. Johnson helped Clinton more. Hillary lost because she an awful candidate.

Olawakandi is NOT a troll!

He absolutely is. He literally posts Trump has no chance in MI, WI, PA multiple times a day. If that is not trolling I do not know what is.

It's hard to pinpoint his true intentions but historically the reactions from his posts (and generally my reaction) have been more humorous than disruptive. My general inclination has been he's not a troll and that his posts are good faith. With that said, his posts often don't make the most sense.

[McGarnagle]

Plausible, but not likely

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

Please stop trolling. Johnson helped Clinton more. Hillary lost because she an awful candidate.

Olawakandi is NOT a troll!

He absolutely is. He literally posts Trump has no chance in MI, WI, PA multiple times a day. If that is not trolling I do not know what is.

It's hard to pinpoint his true intentions but historically the reactions from his posts (and generally my reaction) have been more humorous than disruptive. My general inclination has been he's not a troll and that his posts are good faith. With that said, his posts often don't make the most sense.

SN: If he is a troll, you realize you're just giving him what he/she wants by getting all riled up, right?  Just hit ignore and move on.   

I've just always assumed he/she was just SUPER liberal, though his/her 2020 prediction of the Dems netting 413 EC votes (yes yes, this includes Texas and Georgia) is....interesting.  

On a side note, does anybody know the last time (if at all) that an electoral college map remained the same for two consecutive elections?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

Please stop trolling. Johnson helped Clinton more. Hillary lost because she an awful candidate.

Olawakandi is NOT a troll!

He absolutely is. He literally posts Trump has no chance in MI, WI, PA multiple times a day. If that is not trolling I do not know what is.

It's hard to pinpoint his true intentions but historically the reactions from his posts (and generally my reaction) have been more humorous than disruptive. My general inclination has been he's not a troll and that his posts are good faith. With that said, his posts often don't make the most sense.

I've just always assumed he was just SUPER liberal, though his 2020 prediction of the Dems netting 413 EC votes (yes yes, this includes Texas and Georgia) is....interesting.  

On a side note, does anybody know the last time (if at all) that an electoral college map remained the same for two consecutive elections?

It’s never happened.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

Please stop trolling. Johnson helped Clinton more. Hillary lost because she an awful candidate.

Olawakandi is NOT a troll!

He absolutely is. He literally posts Trump has no chance in MI, WI, PA multiple times a day. If that is not trolling I do not know what is.

Against Biden, no Trump doesnt have a chance to win, but against Warren, Warren doesn't have the experience like Biden does and can lose. As far as my map is concerned, Dems picked up 8 Senate Seats in 2008,  AK, CO, MN, NM, NC, NH, OR and Va, look at the last poll showing Biden beating Trump by 15, if Trump gets impeached and tried in Senate, a 412 EC map is plausible

I have said over and over again, Trump rubs people the wrong way and is gaffe prone like Palin, this is not the 1980 Reagan party, this is the Palin party, who endorsed Trump in 2016

[SN2903]

No, Trump isnt gonna win WI, PA and MI again, he only won those states do to Gary Johnson

Please stop trolling. Johnson helped Clinton more. Hillary lost because she an awful candidate.

Olawakandi is NOT a troll!

He absolutely is. He literally posts Trump has no chance in MI, WI, PA multiple times a day. If that is not trolling I do not know what is.

It's hard to pinpoint his true intentions but historically the reactions from his posts (and generally my reaction) have been more humorous than disruptive. My general inclination has been he's not a troll and that his posts are good faith. With that said, his posts often don't make the most sense.

SN: If he is a troll, you realize you're just giving him what he/she wants by getting all riled up, right?  Just hit ignore and move on.   

I've just always assumed he/she was just SUPER liberal, though his/her 2020 prediction of the Dems netting 413 EC votes (yes yes, this includes Texas and Georgia) is....interesting.  

On a side note, does anybody know the last time (if at all) that an electoral college map remained the same for two consecutive elections?

Fair but I feel there is a double standard on here of liberal posters making repeat or borderline troll statements and conservatives doing the same thing

[Orser67]

5% sounds about right. We've never had a repeat map, but we've certainly come close (1796/1800 1880-1888, 2000/2004), and there's a first time for everything.

[Epaminondas]

About the same odds at identical podiums in an event at consecutive Olympics.