Canadian Redistribution - Federal, Provincial, Municipal

[lilTommy]

Also, Ontario will be matching the Federal ridings that were redistributed in 2015 come 2018 election, minus the North as per Krago. So Queens Park will have either 122 or 123 (federally its 121, but if they maintain the current North then that is 1 more and if they add an additional riding that means 2 more then federally)
http://www.elections.on.ca/content/dam/NGW/sitecontent/2017/preo/Ontario%20Electoral%20Districts%202015.pdf

[lilTommy]

If they do make two "far" North ridings, they would likely only have about 10-15 thousand people in each one, or less.

What gets really interesting is whether or not Kenora would maintain another independent riding of less than 20,000.  I could see Timmins (along with Kap and Hearst, and very small towns in between) forming a riding since it would still be around 70k, but Kenora by itself with the far North cut out wouldn't be able to sustain a single riding. 

The Boundary commission could probably start with the pre-95 electorates which I believe there were 15 seats for Northern Ontario (Including Nipissing but not Parry Sound) It would be easier to get 10 or 11 our of that using updated stats.
http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/

[lilTommy]

Let's remember that there are more people in Kenora than the census reported because there were a lot of forest fires during the census season preventing counting being done. Also, some reserves don't like to do the census.

But anyways, I think if you lob off all the northern reserves from Kenora-Rainy River, you are still left with more than half the population of the riding, no?

I believe so... depends where that line is drawn, how far north of Dryden & Kenora would be added to something new. Like a James Bay Riding (Northern Kenora, northern parts of Cochrane and perhaps far north parts of Thunder Bay district, around/north of Lake Nipigon)

In the south you'd have left:
Rainy River District - 20K
Kenora(city) - 15K
Dryden - 7K
Soiux Lookout - 5K

[lilTommy]

I have added Hatman's suggestions to my Alberta Google map.

https://goo.gl/DcCPF0

Those northern ridings would be huge!

I don't think that's any different from any other Provinces Northern ridings, like in SK or MAN. Even then Peace River, as it is here only has 40K, the smallest population.

Does the Alberta Electoral commission "protect" or allow for greater variances in the North? (like ON where they had set a minimum and now are adding more due to their size)

[lilTommy]

Timmins gets to be its own riding.  Will return to be a true Lib/NDP tossup, much like Sudbury is.  This will last until the next redistribution, where the rest of the North will likely lose an MPP.  
What this does is create the most Francophone riding in the province, and someone French from Kap/Hearst will be able to run.  Here is a picture from Gilles Bisson with the population of Fr / Aborg. in each "new" riding.

Interesting that they went with the 4 options, but this does go with the communities of interest since it creates 1 majority Indigenous riding and 1 majority Francophone one.

Actually, going by 2014 results Timmins would be an NDP/PC riding, but NDP dominant. The PC won about 10 polls, the OLP only 1, the rest were won by the NDP. I don't have the actual city figures, but looks like it was close though between the PCs/OLP for second in most NDP won polls.

Mushkegowuk might be interesting; The Liberals won all but one of the Hearst polls, the NDP won all the Kapuskasing polls. Now the NDP won every other poll but two (and one was a tie) but Hearst being the second largest area (5000+ people) could make this mildly competitive for the OLP. There is a good chance the MPP could be both Francophone and Indigenous, I think that would be great! (hint hint NDP lol)

Kiiwetinong, no contest really here, the OLP won two polls, everywhere else went NDP. BUT this area of the riding went Liberal federally, in particular Red Lake. Provincially went NDP but federally went Liberal. So it has the potential again to be an OLP/NDP riding. But the rural areas are dominated by NDP won polls, except for an OLP corner in the west of the riding around Sandy Lake. (anyone know why? its consistently Liberal Prov & Fed.)

Kenora - Rainy River looks like, again based on 2014, a PC/NDP riding... NDP dominated though like Timmins. The PCs look to have won about a dozen or so polls, and the OLP none. Even when we look federally the Conservatives do really well in Kenora and Dryden more so then the Liberals and NDP. Provincially those communities went NDP.

For the NDP, best for Sarah Campbell and Gilles Bisson, the two MPPs, to run in the more urban areas. Campbell in Kenora - Rainy River and Bisson in Timmins. Gives the chance for the new MPPs to be Indigenous and having incumbency advantage in the more competitive cities/more urban areas.

[lilTommy]

The Liberal candidate the last time was from Hearst, that is why the Liberal numbers were inflated there last time.  That explains not only why they did so well in Hearst, but also why the Liberals did so poorly in Timmins, in addition to the ONTC issue.  You can find articles where prominent Liberals form Timmins were supporting the PCs in an "Anything but NDP" kind of coalition here. So I don't think the results of that election are telling of the actual Liberal/PC support.  Traditionally, Timmins has been a NDP/LIB tossup.
If you look at the last federal election, the Liberals almost won Timmins proper (with a terrible candidate who has since embarrassed himself)

So really was a situational result in 2014. Thanks! The PCs have been polling very well in the north though, so again we might see some more tactical voting OLP->PC in more anyone-but-NDP voting.

[lilTommy]

For an  historical perspective, the Timmins-James Bay area was divided into two ridings for much of the last century between the Timmins dominated Cochrane South riding and Cochrane North, which would have essentially the same borders as the proposed Mushkegowuk riding (except the town of Cochrane, which was in Cochrane North but would remain in Timiskaming-Cochrane in this proposal). 

Perhaps unfairly, the First Nations communities in the proposed Kiiwetinong riding have historically been split up arbitrarily between the Kenora and Thunder Bay (later Lake Nipigon) ridings.

And there are very different electoral histories in Kenora and Lake Nipigon ridings; Kenora was a PC/Liberal riding (never electing a NDP MPP, at least since 1967) while Lake Nipigon was an NDP strong hold going back at least 1967.

[lilTommy]

Yeah, the map is based on the 1991 census (then again, isn't that the same for Toronto's wards?)

Geez, I was still in kindergarten back then, and most of y'all weren't even born yet!

At least TO is finally updating our wards, to 47 and moving the lines around... well hopefully. GAWD if councillors Mammoliti and DiCiano manages to kill this, it will not be pretty!

I was 10 in 1991... so way to make me feel old there!

[lilTommy]

When the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario released their final report, only one seat (Kenora) was beyond the 25% range.  If this recommendation becomes law, then ten out of the 124 ridings (using 2011 Census figures) will be below the 25% threshold, and one will be above (Brantford-Brant).

Using 2016 Census figures (excluding incompletely enumerated Indian reserves), Northern Ontario would be entitled to 7 3/4 ridings out of 124.  This plan would give it 13.  It would be an interesting court challenge.

It's not Northern Ontario's "fault" so to speak, that the southern part of the province continues to grow at exponential rates.  Why would they lose representation?  It would only cause further division, and serve to foster more separation talks.  

Indeed, the proper way to deal with this is to either

A) Increase seats in Southern Ontario accordingly or
B) Create a devolved Northern Ontario parliament

(I actually started working on a map for option B)

Oh, and I don't believe anyone takes Northern Ontario separation very seriously. Just because they get a separate curling team doesn't mean there is any appetite in the creation of another economically deprived have not province.

Have you now! what's that map look like? That would be a precedent in Canada no? I don't believe any other province has anything like that.

I can see what Bisson is getting at, two new ridings that favour Indigenous communities, But the commissions did create two ridings based on communities of interest, one Indigenous the other Frano-Ontarian, that's something.
SO how could we re-draw Mushkegowuk and Kiiwetinong to even out the populations so one (Mushkegowuk minus the south of HWY 11) isn't so small pop. wise. But in a manner that still makes sense... go!

[lilTommy]

When the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario released their final report, only one seat (Kenora) was beyond the 25% range.  If this recommendation becomes law, then ten out of the 124 ridings (using 2011 Census figures) will be below the 25% threshold, and one will be above (Brantford-Brant).

Using 2016 Census figures (excluding incompletely enumerated Indian reserves), Northern Ontario would be entitled to 7 3/4 ridings out of 124.  This plan would give it 13.  It would be an interesting court challenge.

It's not Northern Ontario's "fault" so to speak, that the southern part of the province continues to grow at exponential rates.  Why would they lose representation?  It would only cause further division, and serve to foster more separation talks.  

Indeed, the proper way to deal with this is to either

A) Increase seats in Southern Ontario accordingly or
B) Create a devolved Northern Ontario parliament

(I actually started working on a map for option B)

Oh, and I don't believe anyone takes Northern Ontario separation very seriously. Just because they get a separate curling team doesn't mean there is any appetite in the creation of another economically deprived have not province.

Have you now! what's that map look like? That would be a precedent in Canada no? I don't believe any other province has anything like that.

I can see what Bisson is getting at, two new ridings that favour Indigenous communities, But the commissions did create two ridings based on communities of interest, one Indigenous the other Frano-Ontarian, that's something.
SO how could we re-draw Mushkegowuk and Kiiwetinong to even out the populations so one (Mushkegowuk minus the south of HWY 11) isn't so small pop. wise. But in a manner that still makes sense... go!

Rather impossible, unless you take a bunch of FN communities in NW Ontario and put them in the NE.

And that's where this re-draw makes no sense as these communities have no connections to each other correct?
I think Bisson might have to just let that one go, I see his point but unless we can even out the two ridings in a manner that works for an MPP to be able to represent the riding, the commission will go with it's proposal.

[lilTommy]

‘A missed opportunity for our people’: Indigenous leaders urge province to revisit electoral map

Will this give Queen's Park the chance to not go ahead with the new borders?

If Gilles Bisson runs in Timmins, then there's a good chance the NDP nominates someone indigenous as their candidate in Mushkegowuk. It might back fire though, as the Franco Ontarien population might want one of their own, and vote for another party.

Makes sense for Bisson to run in Timmins, that will be the more competitive riding, and NDP wants all of these northern ridings. Who says there isn't an Indigenous candidate who is also Franco-Ontarian in the wings? With this riding, it has to be a possibility. It should be possible for all 3 or 4 parties (Greens included) to be able to field and entirely indigenous slate in Kiiwetinoong

[lilTommy]

I wonder if Gilles Bisson would run in Timmins or in the new Mishke whatever-James Bay?

It's Mushkegowuk-James Bay

My thinking is he will run in Timmins; he lives there and represented the old Cochrane South riding when first elected in 1990 (Basically was the Timmins, Iroquois Falls area). Timmins will be the more competitive riding and, if the NDP is playing to win both, Bisson's popularity and incumbency will help in a competitive race.
Plus it leaves Mushkegowuk-James Bay open for the NDP to try and recruit an indigenous candidate (top of their list), perhaps one who is also Franco-Ontarian (basically required for the new riding) and a woman (would be nice to see).     

[lilTommy]

I was checking the new boundaries out earlier today, and at first glance, they seem to favour the PCs.

Significantly or no?

Not significantly. They would gain the extra seat, and possibly one or two more.

PCs would win the new Waverly and Lagimodiere ridings, in the south end for sure, I think the new Southdale is more competitive for the NDP now, but still lean PC. St. James weird shape looks to benefit the NDP; Tyndall Park looks like a pretty good Liberal target; Garden City I think can go either way, NDP or PC, while Kildonan is more Safe PC.

Keewatinook looks to favour the NDP

[lilTommy]

Manitoba has released it's new boundaries for the next election.

http://www.boundariescommission.mb.ca/report/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/redrawn-boundaries-manitoba-provincial-ridings-1.4946462

I'm no expert on Manitoba, but that has never stopped me from chiming in!

Using the last polling from November:
PC - 42%(-11)
NDP - 28%(+3)
LIB - 18%(+4)

The North lost a seat with the shift south of all the riding's, 5 now instead of 6 (Keewatinook, Thompson, Flin Flon, Swan River and ThePas - Kameesak)
Keewatinook lost most of its far norther polls, which were all mostly NDP area to the new Thompson, Keewatinook should stay Liberal unless there is a huge swing to the NDP, could happen with a good campaign and strong candidate but the riding is more Liberal friendly now. Thompson gains NDP areas, to the advantage of the NDP who lost Thompson, I see a gain for the NDP here. But, The Pas-Kameesak has become much less favourable to the NDP. While they gained NDP polls from the old Swan River, the more populous areas of Interlake that are being added were very PC/LIB battles. So this is a toss-up right now.

Winnipeg grows to 32 from 31 if I counted right; seeing two rurban/suburban ridings (McPhillips and Roblin) McPhillps is unfortunate for the NDP, they have some strong polls in the south of this new riding, pulled out of Kildonan and The Maples, not sure if they will be enough to counter the very strong PC vote from St. Paul area. I think the NDP COULD win this riding, but they'd have to pull in like 2007/11 numbers and they are not there yet. St. Paul is now three different riding McPhillips, Red River North and Springfield-Ritchot, all should stay PC. I think Fort Gary is more vulnerable to the PCs now, while St. Vital is more NDP friendly, with the Winnipeg Numbers I think the NDP will gain St. Vital and hold Fort Garry (if the NDP#s are up). (PC 34%, NDP 31%, LIB 21%). Liberals should hold Saint Boniface and Burrows (barring any major shift to the NDP), and have a really good shot at Tyndall Park, but if the NDP vote is also up, could go either way, and of course they will hold River Heights. I don't see other major changes in Winnipeg... not sure what the 2016 Winnipeg vote was, so not sure how these polled number compare.

Also, the name "Union Station" is just terrible... where did that come from? They could have named the district, The Forks, or Broadway or even Winnipeg City/Centre.

[lilTommy]

By revising the boundaries of 14 seats from Victoria to Coquitlam, I managed to keep them all below the 10% population threshold without crossing Burrard Inlet.

It also places Comox, Courtney and Cumberland in the same riding, and unites all the Gulf Islands in a single district, whether they want to be or not.

Interesting! Looks like that makes your Burnaby North and Burnaby South more NDP friendly and New Ewst-Burnaby-Maillairdville and Port Moody-Coquitlam are less NDP friendly?
Nanaimo becomes very interesting; by adding Parksville and the Nanoose Bay areas which were very strong for the CONs and LPC, and removing Ladysmith, Cassidy and Gabriola areas which were strong for the NDP, would be an interesting fight.

[lilTommy]

https://bcebc.ca/

Preliminary report of the BC Commission, who proposes adding 6 seats (Burnaby, Kelowna, Langley, Surrey, Vancouver, South Vancouver Island).

Using Ridingbuilder, the results would be:

NDP 61 (+4)
Lib 30 (+2)
Grn 2

New NDP seats are Burnaby-New Westminster, Langley-Willoughby, Surrey Central, Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Vancouver-South Granville
The new Liberal seat is Kelowna Centre

NPD gain over Green in Cowichan Valley, Green gain over Liberal in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, Liberal gains over NDP in Vancouver-Yaletown (former Vancouver-False Creek) and Langley-Aldergrove (former Langley East).

The riding of New Westminster-Mallardville is very odd, What's that justification? it looks gerrymandered but why? Wouldn't it make more sense to have the boundary be either:
a) for Coquitlam, everything south of Hwy1 be in the riding (something like that) or
b) for Coquitlam, everything west of Blue Mountain St (something like that)

I like that Vancouver is finally getting a 12th riding, and still every seat is over quota. in the new Vancouver-Yaletown, even gaining polls from the former Van-Mount Pleasant/now Van-Strathcona, it does not help the NDP when the BCL vote is so strong in Yaletown itself. The split makes Van-South Granville safer for the NDP, but not sure a name change was warranted? Van-Fairview still works here no? Van-Langara looks more competitive for the NDP now too, pulling in NDP polls from Van-Kensington and a mix/ever split NDP/BCL from Van-Fraserview.

They look to be moving away from neighbourhood based names to direction based names: In Burnaby you have East replacing Lougheed, Centre replacing Deer Lake and South replacing Edmonds. I think that works here. But in Surrey you have a City Centre riding and then a Central riding, I find that a bit confusing. They could have easily named Surrey City Centre, Surrey Green Timbers.

Big changes to Kamloops as well; the urban-rural Kamloops South is now an all urban Kamloops Centre, no real help for the NDP though since their vote is concentrated north of the Shuswap. Kamloops North Thompson shrinks down considerably to the new Kamloops North Shuswap.

[lilTommy]

https://bcebc.ca/

Preliminary report of the BC Commission, who proposes adding 6 seats (Burnaby, Kelowna, Langley, Surrey, Vancouver, South Vancouver Island).

Using Ridingbuilder, the results would be:

NDP 61 (+4)
Lib 30 (+2)
Grn 2

New NDP seats are Burnaby-New Westminster, Langley-Willoughby, Surrey Central, Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Vancouver-South Granville
The new Liberal seat is Kelowna Centre

NPD gain over Green in Cowichan Valley, Green gain over Liberal in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, Liberal gains over NDP in Vancouver-Yaletown (former Vancouver-False Creek) and Langley-Aldergrove (former Langley East).

The riding of New Westminster-Mallardville is very odd, What's that justification? it looks gerrymandered but why? Wouldn't it make more sense to have the boundary be either:
a) for Coquitlam, everything south of Hwy1 be in the riding (something like that) or
b) for Coquitlam, everything west of Blue Mountain St (something like that)

Maillardville claims to be the only Francophone community in BC (even if barely any of them still speak French), cutting it in two will cause problems and probably a "New Brunswick federal ridings 2004" style lawsuit.

Ah, so there is a community of interest, even if it is small. But I think the commission for some reason made this more difficult then it needed to be. I was able to keep Mallardville in Coquitlam, and still keep the quota for the two seats about the same.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/7261_07_10_22_11_27_34.jpeg[/img]]

someone from BC can verify if that's accurate, but based on maps it looks to be.